Ahmadinejad's Unexpected Visit To Dubai Shows He Is Allowed To Travel

Sharq news website In Tehran has reported that by March 20, 2022, when the Iranian fiscal year ends the government either has to raise an additional $12 billion or cut expenditures by the same amount, otherwise it has to continue printing money. This constitutes more than 30 percent of the total budget. Other estimates have put the number much higher.

The dollar value of the deficit is calculated according to an average exchange rate of 250,000 rials to one US dollar since March 21. The government’s nominal exchange rate of 42,000 rials to the dollar is essentially meaningless as it only applies to a limited number of imported essential good subsidized with cheap dollars provided to importers by the central bank.

If the deficit is calculated based on the official government exchange rate, it would reach $71.5 billion.

Fararu website in Iran says that new head of Iran’s Planning and Budget Organization, Masood Mirkazemi has given up balancing the current budget and is already looking at next year’s deficit. Mirkazemi, appointed by the new president Ebrahim Raisi in August has warned that printing more money will simply contribute to an already high rate of inflation.

Latest figures published by the Statistical Center of Iran showed that overall annual inflation is close to 50 percent, while food prices have risen nearly 100 percent in the past year.

The predictable issue with the budget deficit is over-optimistic oil export projections made last December when the current budget was being drafted. Iranian officials put expected oil exports at a minimum of 1,5 million barrels per day, with some predicting over two million barrels. But the big caveat in these projections was the lifting of US sanctions. In the meantime, Iran did not reached agreement in its nuclear talks that took place from April to June, and US sanctions remained in place.

At the present time, no new negotiations are scheduled because Tehran has not agreed to return to the talks adjourned since June.

Based on a report by the Parliament research Center, only half of the projected budget revenues have been realized. The news about the government’s oil revenues is worse, with only three percent of the projected exports money going into the budget.

This is a bit puzzling because Iran has been reported selling a few hundred thousand barrels of oil per day. There could be different explanations for the discrepancy. First, there is the distinct possibility that illicit oil exports to China are not being paid for by cash. The second possibility is that payments are made also in illicit ways and either do not enter government coffers or are deliberately not being reported.

Iran’s oil exports plunged from a high of around 2.5 million barrels per day in 2017 to as low as 320,000 bpd in 2019-2020, according Kpler data intelligence firm. Illicit oil exports have somewhat increased in 2021 but by their nature of secret deals, there is little cash revenue for Iran.

Nevertheless, only three percent of oil revenues being realized is a truly low number. Even 370,000 barrels of oil shipped per day would be 15 percent of the pre-sanction level.

Having six more months until the end of the fiscal year, Iran is facing a serious budget deficit, which means it simply cannot pay operational expenses, such as regular wages to millions of employees, pay increases teachers and other government employees demand and leave many projects unfinished.

Responding to calls by teachers’ groups, protesters congregated outside the office of the education ministry in many cities and also outside the headquarters of the Planning and Budget Organization in Tehran on Thursday.

Parliament has failed so far to give its final seal of approval to a bill which would create a pay scale for teachers commensurate with the pay scale of university professors, guaranteeing up to 80 percent of the same salary grade.

Lawmakers have hesitated because there is no budget if a pay raise goes into effect. This year’s government budget has between 30-50 percent deficit, with forecasts of oil exports not having been realized.

Teachers have been frequently protesting in the past two months demanding a pay increase as the annual inflation rate has reached nearly 50 percent with food prices soaring an average of 100 percent in the past year.

Turkey's official news agency Anadolu (Anatolia) reportedthat the country's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and police had made the arrests in Van, a city in south-east Turkey 100km, or an hour’s drive, from the Iranian border.

Anadolu said the spying network had offered the military official's wife $10,000 to help nab her husband − who it identified only by the initials, M. A. − and threatened that her family in Iran would be harmed if she did not cooperate.

Turkish intelligence and police had caught two of the spies, an Iranian identified as S.S. and a Turkish citizen identified as M.E.A.,"red-handed" while attempting to enter the victim's residence, Anadolu said. Six other Turkish nationals were later detained, the agency continued, with MIT suggesting the network had a budget of $30,000 for the operation.

Iranian officials have not commented, even on the arrest of the Iranian.

Iran and Turkey had bilateral trade in 2020 of over $4 billion despite a fall with the coronavirus pandemic but relations have soured recently over Turkey's close ally Azerbaijan's arrest of two Iranian truck drivers and its restriction of Iranian access to Armenia along roads captured from Armenian forces last year.

Baku freed the drivers Wednesday a day after Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian spoke by phone with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov. But tensions linger over recent Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan military drills on one side of the border, with Iranian maneuvers on the other.

Tehran was alarmed at reports last year that Turkey brought in armed Sunni militants from Syria to fight alongside Azerbaijani troops against Armenia and remains concerned at Baku’s relationship with Israel.

Turkey in February arrested a staff member of Iran's consulate in Istanbul, Mohammad-Reza Naserzadeh, in connection with the killing of former Iranian defense official Masoud Molavi-Vardanjani in Istanbul in November 2019.

Naserzadeh was accused of forging travel documents for another Iranian, Ali Esfanjani, the alleged mastermind of the assassination, and helping him flee to Iran three days after Molavi-Vardanjani was shot dead. After Iranian officials denied that any diplomatic staff had been arrested, Anadolu aired footage from Istanbul airport it said showed Naserzadeh's arrest.

Molavi-Vardanjani had launched a Telegram social media channel, Black Box, after fleeing to Turkey in 2018, that made allegations of corruption against Iran’s extraterritorial Qods Force, judges, and other senior figures.

Ankara said in December 2020, when relations with Iran were tense just after the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, that it had arrested 13 led by an Iranian. Turkish intelligence alleged the group had in October assisted Iranian agents to abduct Habib Asyud or Chaab, former head of the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz (ASMLA).

Iran confirmed in November that it had captured Asyud, an advocate of an independent Arab state in Iran’s south-west Khuzestan province. Tehran classifies the ASMLA as a ‘terrorist’ organization.

Mora’s trip announced earlier this week is meant to break a deadlock in the Vienna nuclear negotiation between Iran and world power that was suspended by Tehran in June. Despite calls by Western powers for the resumption of the talks, Iran has not committed to a clear date for returning to Vienna.

Iranian media reported that the two sides discussed “bilateral and regional issues”, including Afghanistan and the lifting of "cruel sanctions" imposed by the United States after former president Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement.

There is no news yet if there was an agreement over resuming the nuclear talks.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his British, French and German counterparts made statements that Mora’s trip is critical, and Iran must return to the talks. Blinken reiterated that the United States has to consider “other options” if Iran refuses to return to the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and continues to advance its nuclear program.

The Syrian defense ministry said in a statement that one soldier was killed in the attack that took place at 11:34 p.m. (2034 GMT) and targeted a communications tower and caused some material losses near Palmyra.

Israel has kept silent about the strikes that came days after another attack in the Homs countryside, wounded six Syrian soldiers.

Israel since 2017 has been mounting attacks on what it has described as Iranian-linked targets in Syria, where Tehran-backed forces including Lebanon's Hezbollah have put down a presence since deploying to help President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian conflict that erupted in 2011.

A statement by the so-called operations room of Assad's Iran-backed allies said the response to the strike would be "very cruel", adding casualties would have been much higher had its forces not been well spread across the desert area.

"As a result of this attack a number of martyrs and injured from our Mujahedeen brothers have fallen," the statement said without elaborating.

"We have taken a decision to respond to this attack in revenge for the martyrs and the blood of the injured and the response will be very cruel," said the statement.

A senior military source who requested anonymity said the strikes hit among other targets the T4 air base where Iran-backed militias launched drone strikes in recent months against US bases in northern Syria.

The Palmyra area where the strikes were conducted are close to a major concentration of Russian bases and where its troops conducted in recent days maneuvers with Syrian troops, military experts say.

Israel wants Iranian and Iran-backed forces kept away from its border and more broadly, removed from Syria entirely.