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ANALYSIS

Mexico cartel violence revives scrutiny of Iran-linked networks

Negar Mojtahedi
Negar Mojtahedi

Iran International

Feb 24, 2026, 22:48 GMT
Vehicles were set alight in Puerto Vallarta as violence broke out following the killing of cartel leader "El Mencho." @morelifediares via Instagram/Yo/Reuters
Vehicles were set alight in Puerto Vallarta as violence broke out following the killing of cartel leader "El Mencho." @morelifediares via Instagram/Yo/Reuters

As cartel violence grips Mexico following the death of a top drug lord, experts tell Iran International that Tehran-linked networks may be intertwined with the criminal infrastructure fueling instability across Latin America.

Mexico has deployed thousands of troops after coordinated attacks erupted across at least 20 states following the capture and death of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho.

Cartel fighters torched buses, blocked highways and clashed with security forces, leaving dozens dead and forcing authorities to mobilize nearly 10,000 personnel nationwide.

While Mexican authorities frame the unrest as cartel retaliation, security analysts say such episodes increasingly unfold within transnational financial and trafficking systems that extend beyond Mexico’s borders.

Those systems, experts say, have in some cases intersected with Iranian state-aligned networks operating across Latin America.

“There are longstanding money-laundering and trafficking ecosystems that connect Latin American cartels, Iranian state-aligned networks and global criminal finance,” investigative journalist Sam Cooper told Iran International, pointing to investigations linking criminal actors across North and South America.

Cooper who has reported extensively on transnational crime networks, stressed that the overlap does not necessarily indicate direct operational control by Tehran but reflects a convergence of interests that could benefit the theocracy during periods of heightened pressure.

“I don’t have direct evidence their intelligence would be involved in helping the cartel push back against the Mexican state,” he said. “But I do believe the Iranian regime would want to benefit very much from increasing the turmoil in Mexico.”

That convergence of illicit finance and geopolitical competition, analysts say, creates openings for states such as Iran to benefit from regional instability.

'Using gangs for dirty work'

Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focusing on Iranian domestic affairs and regional influence, says the Islamic Republic frequently advances its objectives indirectly, relying on criminal intermediaries to apply pressure while maintaining distance from direct involvement.

“They (Iran's regime) do try to put a distance between themselves and their criminal activity, specifically assassination plots,” Sayeh said.

“They increasingly are leveraging some of these gangs… to do the dirty work.”

In 2011, US officials brought charges against several Iranian nationals, among them an operative linked to the IRGC’s Quds Force, accusing them of conspiring to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington.

According to prosecutors, an Iranian go-between attempted to recruit individuals he thought were tied to a Mexican drug cartel, offering payment to carry out the assassination. Those individuals were in fact informants working with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.

Networks built over decades

Analysts say many of these connections trace back decades, particularly through Iran’s partnership with the former regime ruling Venezuela, where Iranian Revolutionary Guard-aligned networks and Hezbollah operatives established financial and logistical footholds across Latin America.

Hezbollah has long been accused of running criminal networks in Latin America that intersect with drug trafficking routes.

Dr. Walid Phares, a foreign policy expert and co-secretary general of the Transatlantic Parliamentary Group, said those networks gradually expanded into cooperation with organized crime groups operating across the region.

“Hezbollah had developed relationships with similar organizations across Latin America, Brazil, Colombia and beyond,” Phares told Iran International. “But the most important move backed by the IRGC regime was in Mexico.”

According to Phares, access to trafficking routes and financial channels allowed militant networks to expand their reach while maintaining distance through criminal intermediaries.

“The most important goal of Hezbollah was to get to the American and Mexican border,” he said.

Sayeh added that Western governments often mischaracterize the threat by treating such activity solely as organized crime rather than part of a broader national security challenge.

“A lot of times when it comes to the Americas it is treated as a criminal network, not a terrorism network,” he said. “Accurately labeling it for what it is important.”

For Iran, "it’s anything anti-America… and cartel is just part of that paradigm for them,” he said. “Any opportunity just to exert pressure on the Americas.”

Crime and geopolitics converge

Security specialists say the convergence has blurred the traditional boundary between criminal activity and geopolitical competition. Networks originally built for sanctions evasion and terror financing can also serve narcotics trafficking and money laundering operations, creating mutually beneficial partnerships between state and non-state actors.

For Cooper, the violence unfolding in Mexico reflects a wider shift in the Western Hemisphere, where criminal networks increasingly intersect with global rivalries.

“The level of threats that are emerging in the Western Hemisphere right now,” he said, “is all related.”

As Mexico contains the fallout from El Mencho’s death, experts say the episode highlights how criminal violence in the Western Hemisphere increasingly intersects with global power competition.

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Shot, chased, denied care: how a mother was left to die in Iran's massacre

Feb 24, 2026, 21:44 GMT

A 50-year-old fitness trainer who joined a protest in Esfahan with her two children last month was shot in the head and later died after a hospital refused to admit her and security forces stopped the car carrying her, sources told Iran International.

Arezoo Abedi, a mountaineer and fitness coach, was shot on Baghe Daryacheh Street on January 8 while her children were with her, sources said.

Bystanders helped her children transport her to Saadi Hospital, but the facility declined to admit her, according to her family. They then headed toward Alzahra Hospital.

The grave of Arezoo Abedi during a memorial marking the fortieth day after her death
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On the way, members of the Basij and other security forces stopped the vehicle and fired warning shots in an attempt to force the passengers out, sources said.

The family was eventually allowed to proceed, but Abedi died before reaching the hospital. Her body was transferred to Alzahra’s morgue.

Her family said authorities released the body after three days on the condition that no public funeral be held. She was buried at night under security presence at Bagh-e Rezvan cemetery beside her father’s grave.

The official forensic report listed the cause of death as “cardiac arrest.”

The grave of Arezoo Abedi during a memorial marking the fortieth day after her death
The grave of Arezoo Abedi during a memorial marking the fortieth day after her death

Diplomacy over grief: activists condemn Iran’s UN appearance after crackdown

Feb 24, 2026, 18:38 GMT
•
Negar Mojtahedi

Tehran’s envoy addressing the United Nations Human Rights Council on Monday drew sharp criticism from activists, who argued that giving Iran a platform so soon after its deadly crackdown sent a painful message to victims’ families.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, spoke before the council in Geneva as most delegates remained seated, despite calls from campaigners urging democratic governments to walk out.

For many Iranians, the moment underscored what they see as a stark reality: while families continue to mourn the thousands killed in the protests, representatives of the same government accused of carrying out the violence were again granted an international platform at the world’s leading human rights body.

“Several UN Human Rights bodies have found that the Islamic Republic is committing crimes against humanity. The regime’s perpetrators should be punished rather than given a platform,” Brandon Silver, director of policy and projects at the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights, told Iran International.

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    How Tehran whitewashes its crimes abroad

Walkout campaign falls short

In the days leading up to the session, human rights advocates and Iranian activists urged democratic governments to leave the chamber during the speech.

In an interview conducted before Gharibabadi was set to speak, UN Watch executive director Hillel Neuer called on governments to refuse participation, warning that granting Tehran a podium would send a devastating message to victims and their families.

“You cannot grant a false badge of international legitimacy to a regime that just murdered tens of thousands of its people,” Neuer told Eye for Iran, adding, “Shame on the UN for inviting the murderers who try to wound and kill innocent people.”

A global petition supporting the walkout effort gathered more than 360,000 signatures. But video from Monday’s session showed that most delegations remained in place as the Iranian official delivered his remarks.

Tehran’s narrative

During his speech, Gharibabadi dismissed reports of large-scale killings and instead accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating unrest inside Iran.

He claimed “enemies of Iran” had diverted economic protests into “riots and chaos,” alleging that demonstrators committed “Daesh-like atrocities,” while asserting official figures showed 3,117 total deaths — far below estimates reported by rights groups.

He further accused supporters of the protest movement abroad of spreading “fabricated casualty figures,” while insisting Iran itself was a defender of human rights.

The claims closely mirrored messaging that has circulated across state media and official channels since the crackdown.

A recent joint investigation by Iran International and The Free Press documented what it described as a coordinated international information campaign launched alongside the repression, blaming the domestic uprising on foreign conspiracies and amplifying those narratives through media personalities and social media networks.

Diplomacy over grief

For families of victims, the speech stood in sharp contrast to testimonies emerging from inside Iran.

One father told Eye for Iran that his 17-year-old son, wounded during demonstrations, was later killed inside a hospital while doctors were attempting to save him — one of many accounts shared by families seeking international recognition and accountability.

Activists say allowing such narratives to be delivered at the Human Rights Council risks amplifying disputed claims while survivors continue to demand justice.

Politics over principles

Later the same day in Geneva, Gharibabadi also appeared at the UN Conference on Disarmament, where images captured him greeting and shaking hands with UN Secretary-General António Guterres following the session.

For critics, the optics reinforced what they see as a rapid return to diplomatic normalcy despite the recent crackdown.

“The UN either stands for something or it doesn’t,” Hillel Neuer told Eye for Iran, arguing that international institutions cannot claim to defend human rights while granting legitimacy to officials accused of mass repression.

For many Iranians watching from inside the country and across the diaspora, the sequence—a speech at the Human Rights Council followed by diplomatic handshakes—symbolized the uneasy coexistence of international diplomacy and unresolved domestic trauma.

Officials in Tehran claim calm, but prices tell another story

Feb 24, 2026, 17:55 GMT
•
Behrouz Turani

Escalating talk of war and renewed negotiations with the United States may dominate Iran’s political discourse, but the country’s deepening economic crisis is more present in daily life—and no less likely to drive change.

On Monday morning, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said foreign reporters visiting the country had described life as “normal.” Yet the indicators and daily experience suggest anything but.

That same day, Iranian media quoted bakers and grocers saying that wealthier customers now leave deposits so poorer families can take bread or meat without paying upfront.

Even newspapers aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have begun issuing warnings.

Khorassan cautioned about the political consequences of rising bread prices. Days earlier, Kayhan warned that bread riots were likely if the government proceeds with plans to raise prices for a fourth time since President Massoud Pezeshkian took office in mid-2024.

Tabnak, the news site run by former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, reported that a family of two or three now needs about twice the government’s worst-case estimate from last year to cover food costs.

Overall inflation is above 60 percent and expected to approach 70 percent this month. Donya-ye Eqtesad warned that food inflation could soon reach triple-digit levels. The Statistical Center of Iran reports inflation for agricultural goods above 85 percent and services above 45 percent.

Across the media spectrum, analysts point to three converging pressures: soaring food prices, wages that lag behind living costs and persistent instability in financial markets.

Specialized economic outlets report continued volatility in the foreign-exchange market. The dollar has fluctuated between 1,630,000 and 1,650,000 rials in recent days, with traders describing “high-tension anticipation” tied to uncertainty over negotiations with the United States and broader political risks.

Gold prices have surged alongside the currency, placing what has long been a traditional hedge against instability beyond the reach of most households.

The stock market has added to public unease. Shargh reported sharp index declines and heavy retail capital flight on Monday, with roughly 110 trillion rials ($680 million) exiting the market in 24 hours.

Analysts cite eroding confidence in government support policies and fears that regional tensions could spill into the domestic economy. Even those with no investments feel the consequences, as market instability feeds broader uncertainty.

Ramadan, traditionally marked by nightly gatherings and shared meals, has taken on a subdued tone. Many families can no longer afford customary foods, let alone host guests.

State television and pro-government social-media accounts now openly discuss the possibility of war. Online documentaries show Tehran’s pre–New Year shopping districts open but nearly empty. Instead of browsing, residents exchange advice on stockpiling food, fuel and clothing — precautions in case the capital comes under attack.

If this is normal, it is a fragile and increasingly costly version of it.

Fatalism spreads in Iran as threat of US strike grows

Feb 24, 2026, 15:13 GMT
•
Maryam Sinaiee

A sense of fatalistic anticipation is spreading in Iran as the threat of a US strike grows, with many expressing fear of war but also resignation that it may be unavoidable—or even transformative.

The mood appears to shift with perceived signals from Washington, where President Donald Trump this week hinted at a deadline for Tehran while repeatedly floating military options if a deal is not reached.

Asked on Friday whether a limited strike on Iran was under consideration, Trump replied: “I guess I can say I am considering that.”

The prospect of conflict has triggered widespread discussion online, where users express a mix of dread, anger, and resignation. While many fear the destruction war could bring, others describe it as an inevitable outcome of escalating tensions.

“Many of us are certainly worried about war,” one user from Iran wrote on X, “but we are more terrified of continuing to live alongside these killers who have no limits.”

“No war means the Islamic Republic stays,” another user wrote. “The choice is yours.”

Casualties—of war and protest

The killing of protesters during nationwide unrest in January, along with the wave of arrests that followed and worsening economic hardship, has left some Iranians deeply pessimistic about the country’s future under continued Islamic Republic rule.

One user arguing against those opposed to a US strike compared casualties from Iran’s recent war with Israel to deaths during domestic unrest.

“12 days at war with Israel—how many did we lose? About a thousand and something,” the user wrote. “On January 18 and 19 how many were killed? Tens of thousands; in two days! Now do you think there’s a less costly way than war to get rid of the monster?”

Skepticism about diplomacy appears widespread.

An online poll conducted by the conservative website Asr-e Iran found that nearly 80 percent of more than 27,000 respondents did not expect negotiations to produce an agreement. In another poll on the same site, more than 70 percent said they believed the United States was using talks primarily to prepare military forces in the region.

Online polls in Iran are informal and not scientifically representative, but they offer a snapshot of sentiment among politically engaged internet users.

“Friends who oppose war, why are you condemning the people?” one X user wrote. “Beg Khamenei to stop the war. The people didn’t bring the country to this point.”

‘Packing bags’

Alongside emotional reactions, some Iranians are taking practical steps in anticipation of possible conflict, sharing advice on storing food, securing essential supplies, and identifying safer areas outside major cities.

Similar patterns emerged during the brief but intense war with Israel last June, when many residents of Tehran left for northern provinces or smaller towns. Long lines formed at gas stations in the early days of that conflict, and parts of the capital were temporarily emptied.

Many also express concern over what they see as a lack of preparation by authorities, noting the absence of public shelters or clear guidance for civilians.

“The government’s reaction to war is indifference and irresponsibility,” one user wrote. “After packing a bag, what do we do? Where are we supposed to go?”

For many Iranians, the uncertainty itself has become a source of anxiety, as the threat of war—once abstract—now feels increasingly real.

Trump’s State of the Union may test appetite for Iran strikes

Feb 24, 2026, 14:11 GMT
•
Arash Sohrabi

President Donald Trump will step into the House chamber on Tuesday night for a State of the Union address shadowed by the prospect of new US military action on Iran, as his administration sends envoys back to nuclear talks in Geneva and builds up forces in the region.

The prime-time speech offers Trump his most prominent platform yet to signal whether he is still betting on diplomacy in the days ahead, or preparing the public for strikes if talks fail.

While advisers have urged him to focus on affordability, immigration and the economy ahead of November’s midterm elections, the buildup toward a potential confrontation with Iran has overshadowed the run-up to the address.

Mainstream outlets have widely previewed Trump’s State of the Union address, highlighting how he might frame Iran alongside domestic political pressures.

Reuters wrote that the speech could be Trump’s best opportunity to rally skeptical voters behind his approach to Iran, including the possibility of military strikes if negotiations fail.

Trump on Monday brushed aside reports of internal dissent about military action, writing on social media: “I am the one that makes the decision… if we don’t make a deal, it will be a very bad day for that country.”

Democrats have sharply criticized his approach. Senator Tim Kaine said Trump was “bumbling his way toward war,” arguing he had scrapped a 2015 nuclear agreement that had constrained Iran’s program.

Bloomberg similarly described Iran as a major flashpoint Trump may address as he seeks to reset the political narrative after domestic setbacks.

The Associated Press said the address offers Trump a chance to make his case for possible action against Iran, citing polling that shows broad public unease with his handling of foreign affairs.

Iran in past State of the Unions

References to Iran in State of the Union speeches have typically surfaced at inflection points–the hostage crisis, regional conflict and terrorism, nuclear negotiations, or moments when presidents sought public backing for a tougher coercive strategy.

In the Cold War alliance era, Iran appeared mainly as a country whose stability and relationships mattered to Western cohesion.

President Dwight Eisenhower’s 1955 State of the Union message cited “Britain and Iran” among nations that had “resolved dangerous differences,” framing Tehran in terms of security and diplomacy rather than direct confrontation with Washington.

After the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the hostage crisis, Iran became the crisis itself.

Jimmy Carter’s 1980 address opened by saying that 50 Americans were still being held in Iran, calling the episode “terrorism and anarchy” and warning that if the hostages were harmed, “a severe price will be paid.”

After 9/11, Iran references shifted into the terror-and-WMD architecture of US strategy, placing Tehran within a broader post-attack security doctrine.

In 2002 and 2003, George W. Bush repeatedly cast Iran as a serious security threat, famously labeling it part of the “axis of evil” and describing its government as pursuing weapons of mass destruction, supporting terrorism and repressing its people, while distinguishing between the regime and Iranians who “speak out for liberty.”

President Barack Obama repeatedly used the address to press for diplomatic compromise while stressing that the United States would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

In 2014, Obama said diplomacy had halted the advance of Iran’s nuclear program, warned he would veto sanctions that could derail negotiations, and argued war should be a “last resort.”

In 2015 and 2016, he defended the nuclear agreement reached with Tehran, asserting that it had helped the world avoid another war.

During his first term, Trump invoked Iran to justify withdrawing from the 2015 deal and imposing sweeping sanctions under his “maximum pressure” campaign, portraying Tehran as a central destabilizing force in the Middle East.

In 2018, he said the United States stood with “the people of Iran” against a “corrupt dictatorship” and urged Congress to address what he called “the terrible Iran nuclear deal.”

In 2019, he called Iran the “world’s leading state sponsor of terror.” In 2020, he tied Iran to counterterrorism and deterrence, citing the killing of former IRGC-Quds commander Qasem Soleimani.

The pattern is consistent: presidents have used the nationally televised address to reset Iran policy at decisive moments–to sell diplomacy, justify confrontation, or redefine strategy.

Tuesday’s speech fits that same historical frame.