Iran Says Nuclear Talks Before December But Wants $10 Billion Released

Sullivan speaking from the White House was referring to the G20 Summit this weekend and the global climate summit next week.

He added that Biden looks forward to discussing the Iran nuclear issue especially with the E3, the United Kingdom, France and Germany who are participants in the 2015 Iran deal (JCPOA), so that the US and Europe can present "a united front after the four years of division on the Iran policy in the last administration."

Asked about at what stage the Administration would consider that Iran has passed the point of no return in its nuclear program, Sullivan avoided a specific answer.

"I'm not fixing a date on that. Obviously, we closely monitor the progress in Iran's nuclear program. We are alarmed and concerned by the steps that they have taken since they left the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action," Sullivan said.

He added, “Within the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, there were constraints on that program that were significant and substantial. We had a lid on that program. Now we do not because we don't have that deal. So, our first and highest priority is to get back to the table and get back to a deal that does, in fact, place a lid on Iran's nuclear program."

The national security adviser said the US and its partners still want a diplomatic solution to bring both America and Iran back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal that former President Donald Trump withdrew from.

Iran suspended its participation in multilateral negotiations in Vienna in June and has not responded to calls to return to the talks. Meanwhile it continues enriching uranium and getting closer to a point where it can have enough fissile material for a nuclear device.

Sullivan underscored the window for diplomacy "is not unlimited...and that we of course, retain all other options to be able to deal with this program as necessary."

“And we will be sending clear messages to the Iranians, as we have been doing over the course of the past few months, that this window is not unlimited, that we do need to see a return to diplomacy and progress at the diplomatic table, and that we of course, retain all other options to be able to deal with this program as necessary.”

Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency last week it had temporarily fed uranium enriched to up to 20% into extra “single machine and intermediate cascades...without any collection of products”, the IAEA said in a statement, adding it later verified Iran had begun feeding just one IR-6 centrifuge but the product was not being collected.

The move is likely to help Iran refine its knowledge of the enrichment process - something Western powers generally condemn because it is irreversible - but since this time the product is not being collected it will not immediately accelerate Iran's production of uranium enriched to close to weapons-grade.

Iran suspended multilateral talks in Vienna in June aimed at restoring the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear agreement that curbed its nuclear activities. In the meantime, it continues its uranium enrichment, stockpiling 20-percent and 60-percent enriched fissile material.

The JCPOA put a 3.65-percent enrichment cap on Iran. The 20-percent enrichment level is already high and the 60-percent degree of purity has no civilian use.

The latest move has, however, prompted the International Atomic Energy Agency to "increase the frequency and intensity of its safeguards activities" at the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at Natanz, the IAEA said in a report seen by Reuters. As of around 90% uranium is considered weapons-grade.

The IAEA said in a statement outlining the report that Iran informed it last week of changes to the setup of centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium, at the plant - Iran would feed uranium enriched to up to 20% into limited numbers of extra centrifuges without collecting the product.

"On 25 October 2021, the Agency verified that Iran began feeding (uranium hexafluoride gas) enriched up to 20% U-235 into a single IR-6 centrifuge in R&D line 2 at PFEP and that the resulting product and tails streams were being re-combined," the IAEA report said, meaning that after separating the enriched product it was mixed with the centrifuge's waste and not kept.

Iran had said it planned to also feed uranium enriched to up to 20% into other single centrifuges or small- to medium-sized cascades, or clusters, of machines on the same line, but those were not being fed at the time, the IAEA said.

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned the pact in 2018 and reimposed harsh U.S. sanctions. About a year later, Iran started violating some of the deal's limits on uranium enrichment.

President Joe Biden announced before his election that he intended to restore the JCPOA and in April the US, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China began talks in Vienna.

Iran has also curtailed IAEA’s monitoring activities since February, demanding that US lift sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy.

Report by Reuters

"The Israeli Air Force will begin practicing for a strike on Iran’s nuclear program beginning next year, having set aside funding and updated its training schedule for the mission," the Times of Israel reported. The newspaper said that while plans were in draft, some parts could be ready quickly while others would take over a year to be fully actionable.

A senior Israeli military official told Iran International's correspondent in Tel Aviv Monday that attacking Iran was now the Israeli air force’s top priority. Last week the Israeli media revealed the government had a $1.5-billion budget for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities that covered fighter jets, bombers, and intelligence gathering drones, as well as specialized munitions that could penetrate Iran's underground sites.

Israel has for decades accused Iran of pursuing a nuclear bomb. Iran has repeatedly declared that it has no intention of attaining atomic weapons and its program has been closely monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. An Israeli attack would be the first on nuclear sites under IAEA inspection.

Iran has also repeatedly declared that it has no intention of pursuing nuclear weapons and criticized the International Atomic Energy Agency for allegedly having "double standards" when it comes to Israel's nuclear program and possession of nukes which it neither confirms nor denies.

Some in Iran, and elsewhere, have said the latest Israeli threats are meant to sabotage Iran's talks with world powers in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plant of Action).

"Israel's limited military sabotage in Iran will continue but the regime will not dare to launch a military attack against Iran," foreign relations commentator Hassan Lasjerdi told Iran's Rouydad news website Monday. Israel's recent threats resulted from Iran's expression of willingness to return to the JCPOA, Lasjerdi said.

Yossi Cohen, former head of the Israel intelligence agency Mossad, recently said that Iran “was not even close to acquiring a nuclear weapon” and that Israel needed to look to build on the JCPOA rather than continuing its opposition.

But others think Israel is ready for military action as it sees itself in danger. “I think an Israeli attack on Iran is definitely possible," Sohrab Sobhani, US-based chairman of Caspian Group holdings, told Iran International. Sobhani said authorities in Tehran lacked a “proper understanding” of Israel's position: “Preservation of Israel means everything to Israel and Jews around the world, irrespective of who rules in the United States.”

Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s top security official, Sunday said Sunday Israel should reconsider its spending plans. "Instead of allocating $1.5 billion budget for atrocities against Iran, the Zionist regime should focus on providing tens of thousands of billion dollars funding to repair the damage that is going to be caused by Iran's shocking response,"he tweeted separately in English, Hebrew, and Arabic.

Iran has ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel as well as allies in Hezbollah and Palestinian groups who have shorter-range missiles. Israel regularly attacks targets in Lebanon and Syria, and Monday Syrian media reported Israeli attacks on facilities reportedly linked to Hezbollah near the Israel-occupied Golan region of Syria.

But besides its powerful air force, Israel also has long-range missiles that can reach Iran, and ultimately its nuclear weapons, if Iran decides to inflict unbearable damage on its cities.

"I will meet (EU) coordinator in Brussels on Wednesday to continue our talks on result-oriented negotiations (between Iran and the six powers)," Bagheri Kani tweeted, alluding to Mora's initial round of discussions in Tehran on October 14.

Initially, Iran had said that the meeting would take place on October 20, but later the EU said no date was fixed. Meanwhile the US State Department said that no additional meeting was necessary in Brussels.

In April, Iran and six powers started talks to reinstate the deal, which then-US President Donald Trump ditched three years ago before reimposing sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy. But the talks were put on hold after Iran's presidential election in June that brought anti-Western hardliner Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) to power.

The United States and European powers have urged Iran to return to negotiations, warning that time is running out as the Islamic Republic's uranium enrichment program is advancing well beyond the limits set by the nuclear pact.

Meanwhile, US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley told reporters after a long trip to the Middle East and Europe that the reasoning behind the suspension of the Vienna talks is “wearing thin.” He said it was hard to find an “innocent explanation” for the delay.

Malley added, “I think all of our interlocutors, whether they’re in the region, or in Europe, shared a deep and growing concern about the pace and direction” of Iran’s nuclear activities.

In reaction to Trump's reimposition of sanctions, Tehran has breached the deal by rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output.

In having a separate meeting with the EU, Iran seems to try to re-negotiate what has been already agreed in Vienna in six rounds of talks from April to June, without the US being present.

Iran has repeatedly said it will return to negotiations “soon”, but it has yet to specify a date.

"Iran is determined to engage in negotiations that would remove unlawful and cruel sanctions in a full & effective manner, secure normalization of trade & economic relations w/ Iran, and provide credible guarantee for no further reneging," Bagheri Kani tweeted.

On Monday, Mikhail Ulyanov, the Russian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, took a jab at Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who had just repeated Iran’s refrain of returning to the talks “soon”. Ulyanov asked in a tweet what ‘soon’ means in diplomacy.

With reporting by Reuters

Meanwhile, its regional rival Saudi Arabia has been investing billions of dollars in setting up new refineries with the ability to produce more feed for petrochemicals, a sector that aspires to make up for projected reductions in the consumption of fossil fuels in coming decades.

Iran Student News Agency (ISNA) in an article expresses hope that the new government of President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) would pursue plans to expand Iran’s refining capacity. But the biggest hurdle would be Iran’s lack of resources for making the necessary investments amid a deep economic crisis.

Amid US sanctions and deep disputes with Western countries, the chance to secure foreign investments is almost non-existent. If Iran’s ally China shies away from openly doing business with Tehran. Although Beijing is buying some illicit Iranian oil, it has shifted its purchases to other countries, including Saudi Arabia.

Iran might be missing the boat in significant ways to shift from a crude oil exporter to provider of refined products and feed for petrochemicals, as other countries plan for a shift with green technologies bound to reduce fossil fuel consumption.

Iranian media and politicians have been arguing that the country should reduce its dependence on crude exports for two reasons. First, crude oil is vulnerable to sanctions, as the reality with stringent US sanctions have shown since 2018. Iran’s crude exports dropped from a height of 2.5 million barrels a day in 2017-2018 to around 200,000 bpd in the second half of 2019, when Washington imposed full sanctions. But the US never sanctioned Iran’s gasoline exports.

Second, exporting crude oil has much less profit than exporting refined products such as gasoline, Iranian officials say. But daily refining capacity has dropped to 2.1 million barrels of crude, even according to Iranian officials who usually boast about production. That can produce around 800,000 barrels of gasoline, when daily domestic consumption is 550,000 barrels. This leaves relatively little to export and make money.

If Iran exports the remaining gasoline, it is difficult to estimate how much money it makes. There are no official records of buyers, who cannot pay Iran through regular banking channels, again because of US third-party sanctions on banks that deal with Iran. If international gasoline prices would be any guide, Iran could fetch more than $20 million a day by exporting its remaining 10 million gallons, but in this case the real prices would be much lower.

Nevertheless, Iran makes a few billion dollars a year by selling gasoline and diesel in the region to buyers who find ways to pay for the discounted fuel. This has helped Tehran in getting much needed foreign currency when crude oil export, its main source of revenues, has been slashed.

If US sanctions are lifted and Iran is able to return to its previous level of crude exports, perhaps it can make some investments in its refining capacity. But to seriously prepare for the coming decades it would need billions of dollars to compete in modern refining. This level of resources would need foreign investments, since Iran’s oil revenues are barely able to feed an inefficient, centrally mismanaged economy.