Iran Tries To Distance Itself From Assassination Attempt On Iraq's President

The rial on Sunday was trading close to 280,000 against the US dollar. There were hopes among Iranians that the national currency can rebound once positive news emerges regarding talks to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, JCPOA. If the nuclear talks succeed, US oil and banking sanctions will be lifted, giving Iran a financial lifeline.

Earlier in the week the rial was slightly stronger at 260,000 to the dollar.

But despite these hopes, the rial has actually dropped further since the announcement to restart the JCPOA Vienna negotiation in the end of this month. The market reaction in Iran can show a lack of optimism about the outcome of the multilateral talks.

The Iranian rial has lost value ninefold against major currencies since the former US president Donald Trump indicated that he would withdraw from the nuclear deal and impose sanctions. Once he implemented his threat, rial’s fall accelerated in 2018.

Oil exports provide at least half the revenue the Iranian government needs to operate. In the absence of sufficient oil exports, the Central Bank of Iran has been printing money, with liquidity rising rapidly since 2017 and fueling inflation.

The incident dramatically raises tension in the country weeks after a general election disputed by Iran-backed militia groups.

Kadhimi appeared in a video footage published by his office on Sunday chairing a meeting with top security commanders to discuss the drone attack.

"The cowardly terrorist attack that targeted the home of the prime minister last night with the aim of assassinating him, is a serious targeting of the Iraqi state by criminal armed groups," the premier’s office said in a statement issued following the meeting.

Six members of Kadhimi's personal protection force stationed outside his residence in the Green Zone were wounded, security sources told Reuters.

Three drones were used in the attack, including two that were intercepted and downed by security forces while a third drone hit the residence, state news agency INA quoted an interior ministry spokesman as saying.

A spokesman for the armed forces commander in chief said the security situation was stable inside the fortified Green Zone - which houses the residence, government buildings and foreign embassies - following the attack.

Iranian armed forces are divided into the traditional army and the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), each with many parallel units, such as armor, artillery and navies.

The army’s drills cover an area of one million sq kilometers or 386,000 sq miles, well over half the territory of Iran. Navy vessels and submarines, as well as air force planes and drones are taking part.

Tasnim news agency reported that American-made F4 Phantom interceptors and fighter bombers fired “air-to-ship optimized missiles”. Some Phantoms acquired in the early 1970s during the monarchy are still in operation.

Iran does not have a fully equipped modern air force due to decades of sanctions but it maintains some American and Russian-made warplanes. It relies heavily on a ballistic missile force to intimidate regional adversaries.

The exercises come after Israeli officials have recently said their armed forces are preparing for a possible war with Iran, given the fast progress its nuclear program is making. Israel has repeatedly vowed it will never allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

An Israeli official told Iran International on October 25 that attacking Iran was now the Israeli air force’s top priority.

Iranian state television said that the aim of the drills is “to boost preparedness for confronting foreign threats and any kind of invasion.”

Iran has been enriching uranium to 60 percent and has accumulated 25 kilograms of the highly purified fissile material, which has no civilian use.

Tensions are high in the region as nuclear talks between Iran and world powers are set to restart on November 29. The United States has warned that if Iran does not come to an agreement to limit its nuclear program, “other options” exist.

The attack was a major escalation amid tensions sparked by the refusal of Iran-backed militias to accept last month's parliamentary election results.

Two Iraqi officials told The Associated Press that seven of al-Kadhimi's security guards were injured in the attack with two armed drones which occurred in Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone area. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to give official statements.

The Prime Minister was quick to respond on Twitter, “The rockets of treason will not shake one bit of the steadfastness and determination of the heroic security forces.” He added, “I am fine and among my people. Thank god."

Later he addressed the nation on television.

The US State Department condemned the attack and offered assistance with the investigation.

"This apparent act of terrorism, which we strongly condemn, was directed at the heart of the Iraqi state," spokesman Ned Price said in a statement. "We are in close touch with the Iraqi security forces charged with upholding Iraq’s sovereignty and independence and have offered our assistance as they investigate this attack."

Although no one has taken responsibility, suspicions will fall on Iran-backed militias after large protests on Friday against the results of the recent parliamentary elections. The incident can become a major embarrassment for Tehran.

Iran's top security official, Ali Shamkhani, condemned the attack, calling it "a new sedition". "The attempt ... is a new sedition that must be traced back to foreign think-tanks," he said on Twitter, without giving further details. It is not clear what he meant by foreign think-tanks.

A security official from the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah group in Iraq later dismissed suggestions that Iraqi groups were behind the attack.

"According to our confirmed information, no-one in Iraq has the desire to waste a drone on the house of a former prime minister," Abu Ali Al-Askari said on Telegram.

After the parliamentary elections once the new legislature convenes it should choose a prime minister, but for now Kadhimi continues to perform his duties.

Kataib Hezbollah and other Iran-aligned militias in Iraq are among the groups that are hostile to Kadhimi.

Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said the kingdom condemns the attack on Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi in Baghdad early on Sunday, calling it a "cowardly terrorist act", Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya TV reported.

"It's premature now to say who carried out the attack," the security official on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to comment on security details. "We're checking our intelligence reports and waiting for initial investigation results to point the finger at perpetrators."

In a statement, the government said the drones tried to hit al-Kadhimi’s home. Residents of Baghdad heard the sound of an explosion followed by gunfire from the direction of the Green Zone, which houses foreign embassies and government offices.

The statement released by state-run media said the failed assassination attempt was with “an explosives-laden drone that tried to target his residence in the Green Zone.”

“The security forces are taking the necessary measures in connection with this failed attempt,” it said.

The drone attack comes amid a stand-off between security forces and pro-Iran Shiite militias whose supporters have been camped outside the Green Zone for nearly a month after they rejected the results of Iraq’s parliamentary elections in which they were the biggest losers.

Updated at 8:45 GMT

Reporting by AP and Reuters

In an article this week headlined "Who Dried Up Iran?" the Tehran-based Fararu website attacked the development of water-intensive industries like steel for “plundering” the natural resource.

The website blamed those enjoying "rente"–a French word it used to imply privileges resulting from undue influence. "One can ask, which social groups are major benefiters of Iran's steel production and export?” the article asked. “They are naturally not the ordinary people on the streets.”

Water stress, which occurs when demand for water exceeds supply, has led to water shortage protests in affected areas, including the southwestern province of Khuzestan and the central province of Esfahan in July this year, and to tension between communities vying for water supply.

Drought and global warming have led in recent years across the wider region to water shortages in Syria, in Iraq where crop production has been halved, and in Saudi Arabia, where King Salman last week asked subject to pray for rain.

Several human factors, experts say, are contributing to the worsening situation: population growth, the demands of industries, mismanagement of water resources including as their allocation to water-intensive industries, and many crops including rice and sugarcane.

With nearly 30 million tons of steel production, Iran ranked 10th globally in 2020. With 700 liters of water required to produce a kilo of steel, most Iranian steel plants are in the driest areas of the country such as Esfahan, Arak, Yazd and Kerman provinces, or areas where water stress has emerged in the past few decades such as Khuzestan.

The government has encouraged extensive agriculture to ensure food security – with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei an ardent champion − but the strategy depends on managing water stress, which can threaten not just water-intensive but other industries.

Fars news agency, which is affiliated to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), published Friday pictures of heaps of apples rotting alongside roads in West Azerbaijan province due to lack of demand. This year alone, Fars said, more than 100,000 tons of apples had gone to waste of the province’s production of over 1 million tons.

Yet experts say groundwater extraction and using the water of the once bountiful Zarrineh Rud − which feeds Urmia Lake − for irrigating apple trees have both contributed to the lake shrinking by nearly 95 percent in volume over the past 20 years.

With production of over 4 million tons of apples in 2019, Iran sat among the top ten producers of apples in the world. But according to the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization, around 700 liters of water is required to produce a kilo of the fruit.