Iran's Hardliners Spurn Reformists' Call For A Quick Return To JCPOA

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Every 6 to 12 months, a survey is conducted by a Toronto-based private firm called the IranPoll in conjunction with the University of Maryland's Center for International and Security Studies. It is a telephone-based public opinion survey of people residing in Iran. The results are then published online and almost always showcased by Washington think-tanks such as the Atlantic Council. Despite enjoying a partnership with a major American research university, the results of IranPoll are never subjected to academic scrutiny or published in a peer-reviewed journal.

IranPoll prides itself on using sound scientific methodology, which includes sequential randomizations, catch-all geographic breadth, and the ability to conduct interviews in multiple ethnic languages and dialects, in addition to Persian. Yet, the survey’s intent and its results often generate controversy and outrage, rather than offering practical information conducive to policy-making.

In reaction to IranPoll, there is always a deluge of indignation on the part of Iranians inside the country and in the diaspora who consider the results outlandish and detached from reality. The main argument raised by Iranians against IranPoll is the unrealistic expectation that politically-oriented surveys can ever be conducted in a totalitarian dictatorship such as the Islamic Republic. Opinion polls administered in authoritarian states naturally call into question the authenticity and honesty of participants when responding to politically-sensitive queries. There is little doubt that fear of retribution influences how surveyees reply to certain politically-sensitive questions.

There are also features associated with IranPoll that are scientifically flawed. The survey’s methodology has been described in a cursory fashion on IranPoll’s website, leaving ample room for doubt about the validity of the data collection process. For example, participants are selected amongst Iranians who have access to landline telephones, excluding a large segment of the population that exclusively uses mobile devices. This narrows the testing sample and introduces bias at the very outset. The process by which participants’ telephone numbers are obtained is, of course, not detailed. It should be noted that every landline telephone number is attached to a physical address, which could theoretically be accessed by the Islamic Republic's security apparatus. This factor can influence the authenticity and integrity of responses.

The survey goes through a succession of awkward randomizations to enroll participants. Excessive stratification using multiple randomizations eliminates balanced participant enrollment, countering the effect and the value of random sampling.

IranPoll states, “[w]hen a residence is reached, a qualified respondent is randomly selected from within that household, often using the random table technique.” IranPoll documentation does not describe the inclusion criteria for the “qualified” respondent. Assuming that being an adult is the foremost criterion, randomization would fail if a household consists of only one adult. This conundrum is also applicable to a situation in which the randomly-selected respondent is disabled and unable to participate. It is unclear how these situations are dealt with by the surveyors.

The cooperation rate for the latest IranPoll survey was 79%. Typical cooperation rate in public opinion surveys is about 30%, with any rate above 50% considered “excellent.” A nearly 80% cooperation rate without incentive is astronomical, considering Iran’s stifling political atmosphere. One is forced to view this outcome as “too good to be true.”

The same argument can be made about the overall response rate of 60%. A realistic response rate ranges between 5% and 30%. A response rate of 60% and a cooperation rate of 79% do not mean each respondent completed the survey and answered every question. Had the survey been offered online, these figures would be more convincing, but it is inconceivable that such a large proportion of people would hold the telephone line long enough to complete the survey in its entirety. That is why nowadays multi-question surveys are typically conducted online (alternatively on paper forms), while single-question polls are predominantly carried out via telephone query.

IranPoll naturally does not offer any information on the completion rates. Assuming cooperation rate means replying to any one or more questions on the survey, IranPoll intentionally conceals the rate at which individual questions were answered. The more participants refrain from responding to a specific question, the smaller the sample size per question and the less accurate the results. For instance, if only 50 people replied to the question on President Ebrahim Raisi’s favorability, it would take a mere 39 favorable opinions to achieve the 78% rate demonstrated in the results. Fifty respondents constitute only 5% of the entire sample. This pitfall applies across the board to all questions on the survey; from President Joe Biden’s popularity amongst the Iranian people, to their opinion on U.S. sanctions and the nuclear deal.

Additionally, IranPoll’s results are in sharp contrast to the findings of online multi-question surveys such as the Netherlands-based GAMAAN (the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in IRAN). As an example, the proportion of respondents in IranPoll who indicated their intention to vote in the June 2021 presidential elections exceeds that of GAMAAN’s by 24 percentage points. The level of trust in the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) service is yet another example. IranPoll reported that about 50% of their survey-takers trusted IRIB’s reporting “most of the time,” while GAMAAN’s number was only at 14%.

GAMAAN’s methodology certainly has its own shortcomings, but its online format mitigates the challenges associated with telephone-based multi-question surveys. Research has consistently shown that respondents tend to give more extreme, positive answers to attitudinal items than when the same questions are administered to them via the web. There are also indications that the social interaction inherent in a telephone interview may exert pressure on respondents, affecting how they answer questions. Although gross discrepancies between the two surveys’ reported findings can be attributed to “mode effect,” differences in responses by survey mode are typically not large. As such, the magnitude of differences between GAMAAN and IranPoll’s resultsare too significant to ignore.

Overall, there are notable flaws in IranPoll’s methodology, as well as how the results are presented. To the best of our knowledge, the method by which this survey is conducted has never been validated. In other words, its replicability and generalizability are highly questionable. IranPoll does correlate the demographics of its sample with those of Iran national census and the Central Intelligence Agency’s Factbook, and makes an attempt at validation by matching the statistics it generates with official data divulged by the regime itself. For example, IranPoll produced a 52.9% participation rate in the 2021 presidential elections. This figure was then juxtaposed with the 48.9% turnout reported by the Islamic Republic in an attempt to ostensibly demonstrate accuracy and replicability. It is impossible to ascertain the credibility of the voter turnout stated by the regime when the elections are far from free and fair.

Lastly, it is appropriate to also understand who are the key players behind the University of Maryland’s IranPoll. To that end, we encourage the reader to review an article by Ahmad Rafat in Kayhan Life.

Given IranPoll’s socially objectionable results, its methodological flaws, the way findings are presented, and the fact that it evades peer review and scientific scrutiny, an impartial observer is compelled to view the survey with suspicion. Such an observer may reasonably conclude that this survey is little more than a propaganda ploy by the Isalmic Republic to influence the United States’ policies vis-à-visthe regime. The data IranPoll provides each cycle are outrageously predictable and oftentimes, downright preposterous. Many residents of Iran and members of the diaspora view this survey as a source of humor and an object of ridicule. Think-tanks that tout IranPoll as an astounding and authentic revelation from inside Iran should thoroughly examine the merits and validity of this survey. Likewise, the University of Maryland should consider whether associating its name with such a scientifically dubious and politically controversial project is in the best interest of the institution.

Dr. Reza Behrouz is an Iranian-American physician and medical researcher based in San Antonio, TX, USA.

Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar PhD is an Iranian-American economist based in Washington, DC, USA.

The opinions expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the views of Iran International

"Exchanges on bilateral & regional issues AWA future talks are on the agenda," Bagheri-Kani tweeted. “We shall spare no effort in advancing our national interests incl removal of illegal sanctions.”

France's foreign minister told his Iranian counterpart on Tuesday that when talks with world powers on reviving the JCPOA resume at the end of November, they must continue where they left off in June.

The comments suggest growing concern over Iran's public rhetoric before indirect talks between Iran and the United States resume in Vienna on Nov. 29.

Foreign journalists including the diplomatic editor of Britain's Guardian newspaper had reported earlier that Bagheri-Kani would meet with French, British, and German diplomats, including Philippe Errera, the French foreign ministry political director and lead negotiator, Tuesday and Liz Truss, the United Kingdom’s foreign minister, Thursday.

Saeed Khatibzadeh, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, told his weekly press conference Monday that Bagheri-Kani would visit Paris, Berlin, London, and possibly Madrid.

Tehran had already expressed intention to liaise with remaining parties to the 2015 nuclear agreement, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom – before resuming Vienna talks aimed at reviving the JCPOA, which former United States president Donald Trump unilaterally left in 2018, imposing draconian sanctions on Iran.

Bagheri-Kani began is diplomatic tour in Moscow October 29, meeting with the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. Soon afterwards, Bagheri-Kani confirmed the date, November 29, for restarting talks in Vienna.

The administration of President Joe Biden, which has continued Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions on Iran, has meanwhile continued to stress its coordination with Europe, the Sunni-led Arab states, and Israel.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday during a visit to Egypt that the US had serious concerns regarding Iran's “destabilizing influence in the region,” a reference to Israeli and Saudi unease over Iran’s alliances.

Blinken, however, linked this to Biden’s stated commitment to return to the JCPOA, which Israel and Saudi Arabia have opposed. "An Iran with a nuclear weapon would be an even more destabilizing force in the region and beyond,” Blinken said, “which is why President Biden met recently in Rome with his German, French, and British counterparts to discuss how we can work together to get Iran back into compliance with the JCPOA...”

Many US Republicans oppose a US return to the JCPOA and lifting ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions. Congresswomen Claudia Tenney has demanded that Biden “clarify” whether Iran played any role in a recent assassination attempt on Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. "We shouldn’t be negotiating with a regime that’s actively working to assassinate foreign leaders," Tenney tweeted Monday.

Iran in June interrupted the Vienna talks that had started in April with the indirect participation of the United States.

With US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions continuing, Iran has accelerated its nuclear program, which began to exceed JCPOA limits in 2019, the year after Trump imposed the sanctions. Iran has also trimmed back monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to that required under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Having survived the US sanctions, many in Iran argue its position has strengthened. Javan newspaper, which is affiliated to the Revolutionary Guards, recentlysaid Iran would be returning to talks with a “full briefcase”, as it had accumulated 210kg of uranium enriched to 20 percent and 25kg enriched to 60 percent. Under the JCPOA Iran enriched to only 3.67 percent.

The comments suggest growing concern over Iran's public rhetoric before indirect talks between Iran and the United States resume in Vienna on Nov. 29.

On Monday, Tehran repeated demands that the United States lift all the sanctions it has imposed since then-president Donald Trump abandoned a 2015 deal between Iran and major powers, and guarantee that it would not quit the deal again.

In a call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, France's Jean-Yves Le Drian "stressed the importance and the urgency of resuming the negotiations interrupted on June 20 by Iran, on the basis negotiated up to that date, with the objective of a rapid return (to the accord)", a ministry spokesperson said.

Since Trump withdrew from the accord in 2018, Iran has responded to the imposition of US sanctions by breaching the prescribed limits on uranium enrichment, which can be used to make the fuel for nuclear weapons. Iran says its program is entirely peaceful.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, was in Paris on Tuesday as part of a tour to the capitals of France, Britain and Germany, the three European parties to the pact.

Report by Reuters

Reformist journalist, activist and former political prisoner Ahmad Zeidabadi in a sharp article published in Etemad newspaper has reacted to remarks by the spokesman of Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday that one of the three conditions for the United States to return to the nuclear agreement is a guarantee that no future US president will withdraw from the deal.

Iran has been making this demand for a while, but the Biden Administration’s position is that it cannot make decisions for a future president.

Zeidabadi askes Iran’s leaders if they really want the United States to provide such a guarantee. That would mean changing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) into a treaty, which would need approval by the US Senate, where many lawmakers would demand guarantees from Iran on other issues.

This would make the nuclear agreement, a treaty about US-Iran relations in fact, Zeidabadi wrote and expressed doubt if this is what Tehran really wants.

Not only almost every Republican Senator but a sufficient number of Democrats think the Islamic Republic is a threat to the United States, its neighbors and Israel and they would not approve a treaty unless Iran permanently dismantles its nuclear program in its current form and dramatically changes it foreign policy.

“Is Iran ready to take the needed steps to attract the minimum number of votes in the US Congress?” asks Zeidabadi. President Joe Biden cannot provide a solid guarantee that a future US president will stay in the JCPOA. The most he can deliver “is a verbal” pledge.

The issue of resolving the four-decade old tensions between the Islamic Republic and Iran has always simmered in the background. US presidents have made overtures to Tehran to enter talks to reduce tensions and normalize ties. But Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his hardcore supporters, especially among the Revolutionary Guards have opposed direct talks and improvement of relations. Khamenei only agreed to nuclear negotiations in 2013 after UN nuclear sanctions brought the economy to the brink of crisis.

Zeidabadi further argued that agreements between states last as long as both sides see their interests served. This is the strongest motivation for keeping commitments.

“If the Islamic Republic wants guarantees for the survival of JCPOA after the Biden presidency, it should try to discover shared interests with America and pursue them both within and outside the JCPOA. Such an approach not only would strengthen the nuclear agreement, but it would also make it impossible for a future US president to abandon it,” Zeidabadi wrote.

Quoting British statesman Palmerston, that his country never has permanent friends or enemies but just permanent interests, Zeidabadi argued that if shared interests are not the foundation of agreements, they are not worth the paper there are written on. If deals are made just to put fires out, they will soon break down, he said.

The dailies' managers even criticized President Ebrahim Raisi during the meeting lashing out at him for many of his appointments that have been widely condemned as examples of nepotism. Raisi responded that he will tell his ministers to explain the appointments to the public.

Nonetheless, it appears there is no end to such appointments, as the administration has introducedMassoud Fayazi, a relative of Tehran's mayor, to the Majles as the candidate for the post of the Minister of Education.

The event took place on the same day that the culture ministry's Press Supervisory Board banned Kelid daily in Tehran for depicting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's hand, drawing the poverty line in Iran. The ban was contrary to what Raisi had promised about press freedom during his campaign in May when he told the conservative daily Resalat that he guarantees the freedom of the press.

Following the November 6 meeting with managing editors and proprietors, Mansour Mozaffari the managing editor of reformist daily Aftab Yazd wrote in a commentary that Raisi must have realized during the past three months that there is a certain gap between the expectations of the public and the abilities of his cabinet ministers.

Mozaffari wrote that the first 100 days of every administration provide a reasonable ground for judging its performance and its officials and suggested that after his first year in office Raisi should decide which ministers to keep and which ones to drop. Mozaffari added that Raisi is likely to make that decision even before the first year and before the parliament warns him about his ministers' poor performance.

Incidentally, some lawmakers pointed out the weakness of some of Raisi's ministers at the parliament's session on Sunday when lawmakers were discussing shortcomings in the nation's livelihood and the unresolved problems of Iran's foreign policy.

According to Mozaffari, Raisi told the editors that his first and foremost preoccupation was to solve the people's economic problems. He also said that Raisi responded to their concern about the appointment of several Revolutionary Guard generals as provincial governors, by saying that all of them were educated in the areas of management and civil engineering with some executive experience.

Meanwhile, Mohammad Ali Vakili, the managing editor of reformist daily Ebtekar wrote in a commentary that Raisi spent the first two hours of the meeting listening to what the journalists had to say. Vakili also agreed with Mozaffari that the most significant criticism put forward was about the appointments within the administration. Vakili praised Raisi for being a good listener. However, he criticized him for not having a clear roadmap for the country in the areas of the economy and foreign policy. "We are facing serious problems and dangerous situations in these areas," Vakili wrote.

He pointed out that wasting time and failing to address these issues during the administration's first 100 days in office will trigger alarms, adding that what has been done so far portrays no promising outlook.

Vakili pointed out that regardless of winning the presidential election in a low turnout vote, the people still have hope in Raisi. "His only bad luck is that, unlike his predecessors, he does not have too much time to solve the problems as the country faces a more critical situation."

Recalling President Hassan Rouhani poor relations with the press, Vakili pointed out that Raisi's good ties with the media are one of his points of strength."

Despite all this, criticism of the Raisi administration particularly in the areas of foreign policy and the economy continues in the press. Reformist Arman daily's front-page article on Monday saying that the country's problems will not be solved by managers who have no executive experience is shared by many papers and websites.