Make-Up Of Iran's Nuclear Negotiating Team Shows Focus On Sanctions

Ultra-hardliner Kayhan daily, financed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Sunday claimed, "America's foot soldiers" perverted farmers’ water protest in Esfahan on Friday to "sow unrest and reap sanctions" ahead of Vienna nuclear Talks.

The newspaper claimed in a commentary that Western powers always incite unrest in Iran to "impair the resilience" of the regime and the people against US sanctions to force the regime to return to negotiate over its nuclear program.”

Farmers had been protesting in Esfahan city center for two weeks demanding their traditional water rights from the Zayabdeh Roud river, which has been mostly dry in the past decade. The call to protest on Friday came after security forces stormed the farmers' makeshift camp in the dry riverbed in the early hours of Thursday and burned their tents. Social media reports said they were given fifteen minutes by security forces to leave their tents before they went up in flames.

As people gathered on Friday to continue the protest, Security forces used tear gas, batons and pellet shots to disperse protesters whose slogans grew more and more anti-governmentlater in the day with many chanting slogans against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, clerical rule, and security forces.

Kayhan claimed that farmers were not involved in the Friday protests, which it said were hijacked by "paid thugs". Farmers had ended their protest on Wednesday and stayed away from the Friday protests, Kayhan claimed.

The newspaper is ardently opposed to negotiations with the West over Iran's nuclear program. In another commentary Sunday, the newspaper's chief editor, Hossein Shariatmadari, opposed any direct talks with US representatives in Vienna on Monday and said to avenge the blood of Iran's assassinated nuclear scientists including Mohsen Fakhrizadeh a year ago, Iran's envoys in the talks should continue to 'humiliate the US" by refusing direct talks.

The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)-affiliated Fars news agency also claimed that farmers were not involved in the Friday protests. "It appears that ahead of the new round of talks for lifting sanctions, [US] democrats have once again resorted to their usual policy of "riot inside [Iran] and sanctions from outside to weaken Iran's position," Fars wrote.

The conservative Jomhouri Eslami newspaper in a commentary Sunday criticized the hardline media and called their claims a "distortion of truths". "Cracking down on people and then resorting to propaganda to distort the truth will not only fail to convince the public. It will damage people's trust in authorities and in the propaganda apparatus," it wrote.

"Deeply concerned about the violent crackdown against peaceful protestors in Isfahan. The people of Iran have a right to voice their frustrations and hold their government accountable," US State Department Spokesman Ned Price tweeted Saturday.

Videos posted on social media Friday showed thousands of protesters in the city's dry riverbed and its adjacent boulevards chanting slogans peacefully and refusing to leave despite heavy use of tear gas, firing guns in the air and paramilitary and plainclothes motorcyclists driving into crowds. As the day grew, however, reports said security forces heavy-handedly suppressed the demonstrations that had spread to nearby boulevards. Some protesters threw stones at anti-riot forces.

Iranian authorities invariably blame "thugs and hooligans" for any antigovernment protest. "It was the police who did this, don't go and claim later that they were thugs and hooligans," a wounded old man, apparently one of the farmers said in one of the videos from Esfahan protests.

Negotiators will convene in Vienna on Monday in a last-ditch effort to salvage a nuclear deal which the United States under then-President Donald Trump quit in 2018, reimposing sanctions on Iran. That led to breaches of the deal by Tehran, and dismayed the other powers involved.

Israel, which is not a party to the talks, opposed the original 2015 pact as too limited in scope and duration. Israeli leaders have long threatened military action against Iran if they deem diplomacy a dead end for denying it nuclear weaponry.

"Israel is very worried about the readiness to remove the sanctions and to allow a flow of billions (of dollars) to Iran in exchange for unsatisfactory restrictions in the nuclear realm," Bennett told his cabinet in televised remarks.

"This is the message that we are relaying in every manner, whether to the Americans or to the other countries negotiating with Iran."

Few expect a breakthrough in the talks as Iran's uranium enrichment activities have escalated in an apparent bid to gain leverage against the West.

Reporting by Reuters

"If Iran thinks it can use this time to build more leverage and then come back and say they want something better it simply won't work. We and our partners won't go for it," US Special Envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, told the BBC News Hour.

But Iran has already built leverage, according to Fars news agency in Tehran affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. In an article signed by a writer with hardliner credentials on Sunday, questioning an interim or partial deal, the hardline media outlet said that Western estimates of Iran being a few weeks away from having enough enriched uranium for a bomb are true.

Indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran, with the participation of major powers, resume on Monday after a five-month hiatus, while the idea of an interim deal has been mentioned in recent days. Iran has rejected the idea, but the Fars article leaves the door ajar.

It seems that negotiations have already started even before the first meeting convenes in Vianna. "If that's Iran's approach, which is to try to use the negotiations as cover for an accelerated nuclear program, and as I say, drag its feet at the nuclear table, we will have to respond in a way that is not our preference," said Malley, who heads up the US negotiating team. "Nobody should be surprised if at that point there is increased pressure on Iran.

"We hope not to get that there, but if we are, then pressure will have to increase to send a message to Iran that the choice it is making is the wrong one. That it has a different path available to it, but it's not a path open indefinitely because Iran's nuclear program is putting the very essence of the deal negotiated (in 2015) at risk," he said.

But Fars said in its article that the West has few tools to exert more pressure on Iran, given the energy crunch in the world, arguing that some countries are willing to clandestinely buy oil from Iran.

Fars also said that the West is clearly concerned about advances Iran has made and its decision to restrict monitoring by UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). That is why they are eager for a partial agreement that would stop Iran’s higher-degree uranium enrichment in exchange for reduction of sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. But the US is not willing to provide permanent guarantees that reduced sanctions would not be reversed in the future, Fars argued.

The article went on to say that interim or partial agreements in Iran’s 18-year nuclear talks with the West is not a new idea and was tried before with mixed results, and will not work in this case. Iran has been demanding the full removal of all US sanctions imposed since 2018 and if Tehran accepts an interim deal, it will mean it buckled under the pressure of sanctions.

But the Fars article does not reject the idea of an interim deal altogether and says, “If the West is willing to make serious concessions over Iran’s oil sales and the repatriation of the proceeds, it might be possible to theoretically consider [an interim deal], provided that Iran’s presence in the global oil market is guaranteed.”

Since previous United States president Donald Trump pulled the US from the agreement in 2018, Washington has imposed ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions while Iran has since 2019 expanded its nuclear program beyond JCPOA limits.

The US presidential envoy on Iran, Robert Malley, told US public radio (NPR) this week that he was waiting to see what the new Iranian negotiators appointed by president Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) would “say when they’re at the table” when the Vienna talks resume.

“Obviously the indications they've given − and we're not the only ones who've heard those indications − are not particularly encouraging,” Malley said.

The envoy criticized Iran’s expressed desire for American guarantees that it would not withdraw once again from the deal, once renewed: “If those are the kinds of demands they make, that's tantamount to saying, we don't really want a deal; we just want to spend the next few months building our nuclear program.”

Plan B

NPR also interviewed Michael Singh, a senior security official in the George W Bush administration, who argued that the Biden administration − which came to office committed to reviving the JCPOA but has continued maximum pressure sanctions and introduced new ones − needed a ‘plan B’.

Malley told NPR only that the US was looking at “other efforts – diplomatic and otherwise” to curb Iran’s nuclear program. He said that if Tehran started “getting too close, too close for comfort [to capacity to make a weapon], then, of course, we will not be prepared to sit idly by.”

The administration of President Joe Biden is under domestic pressure with its popularity falling since the August withdrawal from Afghanistan. Some top Democrats in Congress are lukewarm at best and nearly all Republicans strongly opposed.

Formal talks in Vienna are between the remaining members of the JCPOA – China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia and the United Kingdom – so adding the complication that the US delegation in the Austrian capital takes part only indirectly.

Russia, China, Europe

Russia and China have called on both the US and Iran to return to the JCPOA, while insisting there is special onus on Washington as the party that left the agreement, even after it voted in favor at the United Nations Security Council.

While the three western European states’ position is formally similar to Russia and China – calling on both Washington and Tehran to adhere to the JCPOA – the E3 has expressed growing concern at the expanding Iranian nuclear program and at Iran’s limiting its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to that required under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT).

The E3 told the IAEA board meeting this week that the Iran’s atomic activities, especially enriching uranium to 60 percent and using more advanced centrifuges, was “irreversibly reducing the counter-proliferation value of the JCPOA.”

Russia in contrast played down concerns over Iran expressed by IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi. Moscow’s IAEA ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov said these were a “constant irritant” but had “little practical meaning in terms of proliferation risks.” Ulyanov accepted that while these issues needed to be “clarified and closed” the real challenge was restoring the JCPOA.

GCC, Israel

The Gulf Cooperation Council, in a statement from its Iran working group November 17, supported a return to the JCPOA, moderating its past opposition. The GCC said renewal would “help pave the way for inclusive diplomatic efforts to address all issues that are necessary to ensure sustainable safety, security and prosperity in the region.”

But Israel has maintained strong opposition to JCPOA revival. Defense Minister Benny Gantz said this week that any Iran agreement should restrict its missile program and regional alliances. Gantz emphasized his government’s commitment to “build our military might,” which Israeli media reported led to $1.5 billion allocated October for preparations to attack Iran.

In a long article published Saturday defending Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, the Islamic Republic News Agency said that in the last two months Iran’s position crystalized around three pre-conditions, after the new government of President Ebrahim Raisi reviewed the previous six rounds of talks in Vienna from April to June.

First, the United States, “as the guilty party for the current situation, should accept to retrace it steps back from the path it has travelled.” Second, to turn back from this path, the US should lift all sanctions imposed since its exit from the JCPOA in 2018, “all at once and in an effective manner.” Third, to provide a guarantee that no US government in future will repeat what former President Donald Trump did by withdrawing from the agreement.

As Tehran listed its new conditions, it got a boost of support on Friday from Russia and China, two signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.

Russia criticized the United States for threatening Iran with diplomatic escalation at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in case Iran did not improve cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog. On Thursday the US expressed deep disappointment at the failed trip of IAEA chief Rafael Grossi to Tehran on Tuesday, when Iran refused to fully cooperate with the nuclear watchdog.

Speaking at a joint news conference with Chinese ambassador Wang Qun, Russian ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov called the US threat to convene an extraordinary IAEA board meeting to censure Iran "not helpful" and "counterproductive".

"Our American counterparts lose patience. But I believe for all of us we need to control our emotions. Probably the US did not communicate with the Iranians for a very long time and forgot that Iranians don't do anything under pressure. If they are under pressure, they resist," Ulyanov told reporters.

His last comment was a sign of strong backing for Iran and if Russia follows this policy when the talks begin on Monday, a clear break will emerge between the West and Iran and its allies.

On Wednesday, IAEA director general Rafael Grossi admitted that the agency was unable to inspect the production of advanced centrifuges at the Karaj facility as it did not have cameras and other monitoring equipment installed at the site.

The continued refusal of the Islamic Republic to cooperate with the agency has prompted the U.S. and its European allies to threaten Iran with a special board meeting before the end of the year.

With reporting by AP