Former Diplomats Discuss Iran's Outlook For 2050

The decision, part of the new budget, does not specify which individuals will receive the oil to sell, nor there is any mention of procedures to award the oil and receive the proceeds. The parliament only said that “guarantees” will be required before any oil is awarded.

A well-publicized scandal broke in 2013 when authorities arrested Babak Zanjani, a businessman, for embezzling at least $2.7 billion from illicit oil sales during international sanctions from 2009-2013. Zanjani used companies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) for the oil he exported, leading to speculations that well-connected officials had a stake in the scheme. He received the death penalty which has so far not been carried out.

Similar corruption revelations in recent years have badly damaged the regime’s image in the country.

In February, the Revolutionary Guard received $80 million of oil from the government to sell as an additional budget appropriation. It also remains unclear who and under what conditions will export the oil amid US sanctions.

Many members of Iran's hardliner dominated parliament are former members of the IRGC.

President Ebrahim Raisi’s government awarded a contract worth $3 billion of oil with the business conglomerate of the IRGC for rice production, while it has no expertise in the field.

With oil prices hitting almost $120 this week, market watchers await the outcome of indirect talks between the United States and Iran in Vienna to see if sanctions imposed on Tehran’s oil exports will be lifted and global supplies boosted amid the Ukraine crisis.

However, any agreement will not immediately allow Iran to legally export oil as compliance with the agreement would take a few months to verify, Reuters said, adding that the same happened in when the first nuclear deal was inked in 2015 when it took a few months until Iran began exporting crude.

Most refiners around the world have also shunned Iranian oil for several years and they would need two to three months to finalize technical arrangements to enable imports from Iran to resume, analysts said.

Iran has tens of millions of barrels of oil in storage that can be released once its compliance with the nuclear agreement is verified, but some of that oil is heavy condensate and not very helpful to lower prices.

The analysis said that it would take Iran up to six months to raise output by around one million barrels per day.

OPEC led by Saudi Arabia has refused to break an agreementreached before the Russian invasion and boost output.

Oil prices experienced a wild swing of $10 a barrel on Thursday, March 3, but styed above $110 on Friday as uncertainty about the Ukraine crisis dominated news. Oil analysts have kept emphasizing that once a nuclear agreement is reached with Iran and oil export sanctions lifted, Tehran can add up to two million barrels a day to world supply.

Iran’s oil minister on Thursday assured markets that within two months of signing a nuclear agreement with world powers, Iran can boost its production and add to its crude exports.

But it remains uncertain as to how much more Iran can supply on top of more than one million barrels it is shipping now despite US sanctions, mostly to China. An additional one million barrels is realistic to expect, but beyond that it is anyone’s guess given the fact that for three years production has stayed down, and Iran has had little available money to invest in the upkeep of its infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia, leading OPEC and potentially becoming even a more influential producer with Russia in the grips of uncertainty, has refused to add production despite direct appeals by President Joe Biden who is facing the prospect of losing US midterm elections with high prices at the pumps.

While output reduction by Saudi-led OPEC in 2020 was a reasonable move given the negative impact of the Covid pandemic on demand, its refusal to produce more and cap prices in the past one year leaves room for speculation that there could be political reasons.

Many industry analysts argue that Saudi Arabia and others simply do not have capacity to quickly restore production, but Riyadh has often done that in the past, as when it quickly restored exports following a devastating missile and drome attack on its facilities in September 2019. That attack crippled nearly 50 percent of its capacity, which it restored in a matter of weeks.

But in February after a direct appeal by Biden who called King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud to ask for help in capping oil prices, the answer was a polite no. In contrast, Riyadh was fully responsive to similar requests by former president Donald Trump. Saudis were responsive to Trump’s request to lower prices before the 2018 midterm elections and later he thanked them for that.

But Biden’s relations with Saudi leaders have been cordial at best. Early in his term Biden was threatening to reconsider relations and removed Yemen’s Houthi’s from the US terror designation. He also vowed to revive the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal known as JCPOA. Riyadh had opposed the deal during Obama and supported Trump’s decision to pull out in 2018.

After 11 months of US indirect talks with Iran, a deal seems to be at hand, which would not address Saudi concerns about Iran’s regional threats. As a result, Riyadh seems to have decided to find a modus vivendi with Iran, instead of accommodating the Biden administration.

If Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to supply more oil is prompted by political motives rather than technical issues or a purely business decision, then it would be perhaps less problematic for the Biden Administration to resolve its issues with Riyadh rather than count on limited supplies from Iran.

The Intercept quoted a senior Democratic Congressional staffer as saying, “High gas prices will almost certainly be blamed on the party in power, so it really seems like the Saudis are using the oil weapon against Democrats here.”

The survey, by Keyou Analytics, found that over 33 percent of 1,300 respondents would emigrate, permanently or temporarily, if able to. In a 2016 survey by the same institute, fewer than 30 percent of Iranians said they wanted to leave the country.

Speaking to Aftab News, Hossein Raghfar, economics professor at Alzahra University, Tehran, said the jump was due to political repression that started during the first six years of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency (2005-11), which Raghfar claimed had been a message to intellectuals and professionals that their political views would not be tolerated.

"It's from this point that we witness extensive emigration from the country,” argued Raghfar. “This included banning opposition media and political parties as well as sacking or forcing university professors and other professionals to leave.”

Raghfar said such people needed to be able to freely protest against economic hardhip and corruption, and that an increased desire to emigrate indicated a closed atmosphere. "No society can survive when only one voice is tolerated… I believe there must be the opportunity for lawful protest … to generate the feeling of belonging and loyalty in the society and towards its values," he said.

Eighty percent of those surveyed by Keyou survey cited economic factors. “Most of these people say they will have higher incomes abroad and a more comfortable life,” saidHamid Hosseini, a member of Iran's Chamber of Commerce.

Emphasizing the emigration of professionals, tradesmen and manufacturers due to economic and political uncertainty, Hosseinisaid the phrase “a comfortable life” was an important window into the thinking of prospective emigrants and showed their apprehension over the country’s future country. “They are tired and concerned,” he noted.

Thousands of teachers in protest rallies across the country last week threatened an “uprising” if the government did not increase their wages. Similar protests have been staged by other groups including civil servants and pensioners in recent months.

Iran's inflation rate stands at around 40 percent, but food prices have been rising much faster than the general inflation rate. Food prices rose by more than 60 percent in the past twelve months, on top of high inflation in the four years since a jump from 9.6 percent in 2017 to 30.2 percent in 2018 and around 40 percent in 2021.

Rents have increased twofold and threefold in some areas both in the capital Tehran and in provinces. Real estate prices have increased sevenfold since 2018 as the Iranian currency has nosedived and the sector has become a haven for protecting capital.

Some analysts have said that a lack of social and political freedoms combined with ever-worsening economic conditions have led to a widespread sense of hopelessness about the future of the country.

Economic hardships are the product of Islamic Republic’s anti-West foreign policy triggering sanctions and a corrupt and inefficient economic system, while political repression blocks all avenues to change and reforms.

Iran’s figure of 33 percent wanting to emigrate was higher, Keyou Analytics found, that a global average of 15 percent and a Middle Eastern average of 24 percent. Twenty-seven percent of South Americans wanted to leave, but only 7 percent of those in south-east Asia.

Ukraine and Russia account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports and nearly a fifth of corn.

Wheat prices surged five percent on Tuesday compared with only a day earlier on fears that the Ukraine crisis can disrupt the world’s staple grain markets, worrying countries like Iran -- which rely on imports from the region. Transport logistics problems can lead to shortages, food price inflation, or even hunger.

Bloomberg cited Russian sources that grain exports from the country will probably be on hold for at least the next couple of weeks while war in the Black Sea has also closed Ukrainian ports since Thursday.

Iran’s Feed and Grain Importers Union has recently announced that the Russian invasion can also cause problems in the imports of livestock feed and grain to Iran because companies cannot keep their deliveries due to logjams in supply chains while airlines cancelled cargo flights because of reciprocal airspace bans that hit both Russia and Europe.

A member of the union has called on the government to provide the means to import the staple grains from other countries such as Argentina, Canada and Brazil.

“There will be a big impact with respect to wheat prices and prices of bread for ordinary people,” World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said Friday.