Khamenei Adviser Says Iran Has Not Opted For Nukes But Has Capability

The statement covering the results of bilateral talks included a section on “Security and Defense” which said Biden affirmed the United States’ continued commitment to supporting "Saudi Arabia’s security and territorial defense, and facilitating the Kingdom’s ability to obtain necessary capabilities to defend its people and territory against external threats."

Saudi Arabia and the United States also underscored the need to further deter Iran’s interference in "the internal affairs of other countries, its support for terrorism through its armed proxies, and its efforts to destabilize the security and stability of the region," the statement said.

President Biden began his Middle east Tour by first visiting Israel, where in an interview he said he is willing to consider the use of force against Iran “as a last resort”, which was his first clear statement since assuming office that a military option remains on the table to stop Tehran from building nuclear weapons. He also emphasized that diplomacy to reach a deal with Iran is his priority. But his remark about willing to use force was probably meant to reassure Israel and Saudi Arabia, both opposed to a weak nuclear deal with Iran and vulnerable to a nuclear armed Iran.

Washington and Riyadh also stressed the importance of preserving the free flow of commerce through strategic international waterways such as the Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz in the joint statement.

“The United States also emphasized the growing cooperation between the Royal Saudi Naval Forces and U.S. Fifth Fleet’s Task Force 59, which leads an expanding fleet of cutting edge, integrated unmanned surface vessels using artificial intelligence to improve maritime security and domain awareness in support of regional security,” the statement said.

The joint statement appeared to signal a new era of closer partnership between the Biden Administration and Riyadh. Relations were marred by the Biden’s critical stance toward the powerful crown prince Mohammed bin Salman for the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey in 2018.

Biden said on Friday he told the Crown Prince he held him responsible for Khashoggi’s murder, shortly after exchanging a fist bump with the kingdom's de facto ruler.

"I was straight forward and direct in discussing it. I made my view crystal clear. I said very straightforwardly, for an American president to be silent on an issue of human rights is inconsistent with who we are and who I am," Biden said.

This seems to have put the matter to rest as far as bilateral relations are concerned, in which Biden is eager to get Riyadh’s attentive ear to boosting oil production and lowering gasoline prices that fuel inflation in the United States.

Both Iran and oil production are on the agenda of an Arab summit with the United States on Saturday, where other large Persian Gulf producers will be present. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates both are the only countries at this point that hold spare oil capacity and can compensate for any shortage triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The United States commentariat have focused both on a possible plea to the Saudis to pump more oil to ease American gasoline prices now near $5 a gallon and on the president’s shift from shunning Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman as a pariah after the 2018 murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

A summit on Saturday of the Gulf-Cooperation Council (GCC) – the six Gulf nations broadly led by Saudi Arabia – alongside Egypt, Iraq and Jorden is widely expected to recognize, and perhaps enhance, existing air-defense cooperation with Israel, under US supervision, against Iranian and Iranian-supplied missiles and drones.

Israel’s 2020 ‘normalization’ agreement with Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates have encouraged talk of ‘friendship’ and warm relations. In Israel, Biden made great play of his regard for Zionism, making scant reference to Israeli occupation of the West Bank and none to May’s killing of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Aby Akleh.

He also said clearly for the first time that use of force against Iran remains on the table “as a last resort” to prevent Tehran to produce nuclear weapons.

‘Gigantic mistake’

But Biden also stressed in an interview with Channel 12 television his support for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Diplomacy remained the best way to preclude Tehran from developing a weapon, Biden argued, and called predecessor Donald Trump’s taking the US out of the deal, a move backed by Israel, as a “gigantic mistake” that meant Iran was “closer to a nuclear weapon now than they were before.”

While Saudi Arabia remains open, like Israel, to further US arms supplies, there is clear skepticism in Riyadh over US intentions and a continuing reluctance to pivot too far in Washington’s direction. Analysts differ over Saudi’s practical ability to boost oil production, but even so Riyadh appears committed to the approach of the Opec+ grouping led by the Saudis alongside Russia, which agreed a modest increase in August after cutbacks at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Saudis wary, UAE rules out ‘Middle East Nato’

Saudi Arabia is wary over Biden’s commitment, following Trump, to downscale US involvement in the Middle East. Riyadh last year opened an Iraqi-mediated dialogue with Iran, from whom it broke diplomatic relations in 2016. Iraq will be the only majority-Shia and broadly Shia-led state at Friday’s GCC-plus-three summit.

The UAE is also hedging. The president’s diplomatic adviser Anwar Gagash said Friday that the Emirates did not support a confrontational approach to Iran and was working to send an ambassador to Tehran, filling the currently vacant post.

Gagash downplayed talk of a ‘Middle East Nato’ – built up from air-defense cooperation – as a “theoretical” concept. “We are open to cooperation, but not cooperation targeting any other country in the region and I specifically mention Iran,” he said. “The UAE is not going to be a party to any group of countries that sees confrontation as a direction, but we do have serious issues with Iran with its regional politics.”

In Tehran, following President Ebrahim Raisi’s warning of a “harsh” Iranian response to any “mistake” by the US and its allies, Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi mocked Biden Friday for his “sleepiness” when threatening force to halt the Iranian nuclear program. Iranian TV Friday announced Tehran’s first drone division in the Indian Ocean.

Some analysts have suggested in recent weeks that Iran stiffened its approach in JCPOA-revival talks with the US in Doha last month in part because of wariness that US mid-term elections could result in Republican Congressional majorities that would immediately undermine any agreement.

Local media quoted Brigadier Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi as saying: “The use the phrase “resorting to force” by the "poor" American president and "the helpless" prime minister of the fake Zionist regime is an attempt at psychological warfare, delusion and sleepiness they are known for.”

The use of “sleepiness” by the Iranian official was a clear case of ‘plagiarism’ by the Iranian military spokesman taken from Tehran’s arch foe, former US President Donald Trump who called President Biden “sleepy Joe” during the last presidential campaign.

“The Americans and Zionists (Israel) know very well the price for using the word 'force against Iran,'" Shekarchi said.

"Biden must have been sleepy when he threatened Iran," he said, adding, "Watch your soldiers’ pants - they might get wet in the Persian Gulf!”

The Islamic Republic has tried to put a brave face during Biden’s regional tour, which started with the US President telling an Israeli television that he would be willing to use force against Iran “as a last resort”, if it tries to build nuclear weapons.

This clear statement showing his intention to strengthen ties with America’s traditional allies in the Middle East was followed by a Joint Declaration with Israel on July 14, giving a shared commitment to Israel’s military supremacy and preventing Iran from building nuclear weapons.

The declaration was followed by Israeli national security advisor Eyal Hulata telling Israel’s Channel 13 that his government will act as it sees fit regarding the Iranian threat. “We are not afraid to tell the Americans that we have differences of opinion with them, or that even inside Iran we carry out operations,” adding that Israel acts according to its own determinations.

Hulata came out openly acknowledging that Israel has carried out attacks inside Iran, especially “in the past one year”, insisting that the US “supports us” and Israel’s operation do not harm its relations with the US President.

Despite these statements, Iran’s foreign ministry showed a low-key reaction on Fridayto developments during Biden’s trip to Israel.

The ministry spokesman Naser Kanani wrote on Twitter that the United States issued a clear and lasting commitment to protect Israel and its military superiority, in the Joint Declaration. But he added, “Make no mistake. The target [of the declaration] is not just Iran, but all Arab and Muslim countries should accept Israel’s superiority.” He concluded, “Therefore, the main source of threat for the region is completely clear.”

The official government new website IRNA also argued that the US military guarantees to Israel are nothing new and come from the past decades.

Iran’s defiant foreign policy seems to be caught between two opposing forces. On the one hand officials, usually military commanders, issue strong statements and even threats, while sometimes others sound low-key or try to dispel the specter of a military threat and more isolation.

The reason is the country’s domestic economic crisis, that many recognize as the result of decades of anti-West and anti-Israel policies. The social and economic crisis has reached a point that some officials sometimes try not to anger the people by more bellicose postures.

Nevertheless, IRNA called the US-Israeli declaration an “anti-Iranian” statement, denying that Tehran poses any threat to regional countries to warrant a US policy of fostering an alliance among its allies.

But Tehran is continuing uranium enrichment and is said to have enough fissile material at this point to produce a nuclear weapon, while more than a year of nuclear talks with the US have remained stalled.

Netanyahu, who is now head of the opposition, told Biden that "if and when" he returns to office, his hard stance on Iran will remain the same, claiming that “Biden said he agrees with my position and I was glad to hear that. This is what I will do if and when I return to the Prime Minister's Office."

Discussing the Iranian nuclear issue, Bibi said, "Without a reliable military option, it will be impossible to stop Iran, and if it is not deterred, the military option must be exercised."

Netanyahu added that to ensure US-Israeli friendship for the next 40 years “we have to address the Iranian threat,” noting that "Economic sanctions and even a defensive pact are not enough, there is a need for a military-offensive option on Iran, without it, nothing will work."

Earlier in the day, Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid signed a declaration on a shared commitment to Israel’s military supremacy and preventing Iran from building nuclear weapons.

Washington pledged further “defense assistance” on top of the $38 billion 10-year Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2016 under President Barack Obama and the $1-billion assistance after the 2021 Israeli-Palestinian violence centered on Gaza.

The document – dubbed the ‘Jerusalem Declaration’ – singled out as integral “to this pledge…the commitment never to allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.” The US was, it said, “prepared to use all elements of its national power to ensure that outcome.”

The declaration, with the text signed by Israeli Minister Yair Lapid and United States President Joe Biden released Thursday, expressed “unshakeable US commitment” to Israel’s “military edge.” Washington pledged further “defense assistance” on top of the $38 billion 10-year Memorandum of Understanding in 2016 under President Barack Obama and the $1-billion assistance after the 2021 Israeli-Palestinian violence centered on Gaza.

The document – dubbed the ‘Jerusalem Declaration’ – singled out as integral “to this pledge…the commitment never to allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.” The US was, it said, “prepared to use all elements of its national power to ensure that outcome.”

While US officials have previously spoken vaguely of means to preclude an Iranian weapon, this is apparently the first time such a commitment has been made openly with Israel, which is widely believed to have carried out attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, which are monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and killed its scientists.

Lapid reportedly told Biden that the time had come to end diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, from which Trump withdrew the US and which Biden had an election commitment to revive.Lapid argued instead for a “credible military threat.”

Aside from the nuclear issue, Biden committed the US “together with other partners to confront Iran’s aggression and destabilizing activities, whether advanced directly or through proxies and terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.”

‘Robust regional architecture’

While the declaration noted Biden’s “longstanding and consistent support of a two-state solution” allowing a Palestinian state in Israeli-occupied territories, it pledged to work against “all efforts to boycott or de-legitimize Israel” and “to firmly reject the BDS campaign.” Calls for boycotting and disinvestment from Israeli entities active in the occupied West Bank have gathered momentum since rights groups including Amnesty International concluded that Israeli military rule amounted to a form of apartheid where Jewish settlers had political and civil rights denied to Muslims and Christians.

The Biden-Lapid declaration anticipated Biden’s arrival in Saudi Arabia Friday as part of a process of “building a robust regional architecture.” It hailed Israel’s 2020 ‘normalization’ agreements with Bahrain, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates as important “to the cause of regional security, prosperity and peace” and hailed March’s Negev summit in Israel – attended by the foreign ministers of of Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Morocco and the United States – as “efforts to build a new regional framework that is changing the face of the Middle East.”

Officials and hardliner media in Tehran have already condemned the emergence of an Israeli Arab alliance, telling the United States that no regional arrangement “can save the Zionist regime”.

Nour News, close to Iran’s supreme national security council on Thursday threatened that Tehran can use “new methods” for “punishing” Israel, and energy shipments could be endangered in the region. This was a little-veiled threat to shipping in the Persian Gulf and possibly in the Red Sea, where Iran’s Houthi allies have attacked vessels in the past.

Iranian government media simply carried the news of the US-Israeli declaration, as a first reaction Thursday afternoon, but further official and semi-official reaction will follow in coming days.