Pundits, Media In Iran Speak Of Nuclear Deadlock, Danger Of Conflict

Ahead of Prince Mohammed’s arrival, a presidential official said there was still time to save the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), despite widespread skepticism that Tehran and Washington can bridge their differences.

Saudi Arabia is known for having oppsed the deal with Iran and together with its other Persian Gulf Arab allies has drawn closer to Israel as a way of defending agianst the Iranian threat.

The European Union has acted as mediator in trying to keep the JCPOA revival talks alive, after a pause since March, with reports this week that EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell had floated a proposal reportedly for a partial restoration based on US concessions over oil sanctions and Tehran restoring closer monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The Saudi crown prince’s trip to Paris comes two weeks after he hosted US President Joe Biden and apparently marks his greater acceptance internationally four years after Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

DAWN, a pro-democracy group Khashoggi created three months before his murder, filed a complaint in Paris Thursday calling for the criminal prosecution of Prince Mohammed under universal jurisdiction and France’s commitment to United Nations conventions on torture and enforced disappearances.

Agnes Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General, wrote on Twitter that the “rehabilitation of the murderous prince” was the result of “bargaining.” Both France and the US want Saudi Arabia to raise oil production, so bearing down on rising prices. Both are also major arms suppliers to Riyadh, as well as to the United Arab Emirates.

Raisi: Iran armed forces ‘prepared’

While seeking to improve its own armed forces, Saudi Arabia has been involved in developing cooperation, under US auspices, with Israel over air defense largely against the threat of Iranian and Iranian-supplied missiles and drones.

In the Shahid Nojeh air base, Hamedan province, Thursday Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi suggested that “regional countries” could “feel secure” due to Iran’s role.

“Our great military advances have given us power,” Raisi said. “The enemy studies our movement and preparedness – not that it doesn’t want to attack us, but it cannot take such a step because our armed forces have great preparedness. Both the supreme leader, the commander-in-chief [Ali Khamenei], and the government have said repeatedly that anyone who tries to violate our country will strongly regret it.”

Raisi drew particular attention to Iran’s presence on the “high seas in international waters.” Naval tensions in the Persian Gulf and further afield have included US pressure to stop Iran’s oil exports. Following a recent ruling by the Greek supreme court, an Iranian-flagged tanker anchored off Piraeus is expected to retrieve part of its cargo, which had been confiscated by the US in a move that prompted Iran to seize two Greek tankers – which it still holds – in the Persian Gulf.

Grossi told CNN on Tuesday, July 26, that "Iran has to restore all our inspection capabilities" after Iran's nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami declared on the same day that Iran will keep cameras monitoring its nuclear activities switched off until a deal is struck with the United States." Grossi, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency explained: "We do not know what is happening with Iran's nuclear program."

In an interview with the Iranian Labor News Agency ILNA on Wednesday, Beheshtipour criticized Iranian officials for saying repeatedly that the IAEA is under the influence of the United States and Israel, and said that this will not solve any problem. He stressed that the difference between Iran and IAEA can be solved only through negotiations.

Beheshtipour said while Iran and the IAEA level accusations against each other it means that this is not the right time for cooperation and added that Iran possibly expects Grossi to also call on the United States to go back to its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal.

With the latest accusations against Iran, the IAEA will certainly issue a resolution against Tehran in September, Beheshtipour remarked, adding that Iran will take that as a step fabricated to condemn Tehran. However, Beheshtipour pointed out that the IAEA has confirmed in 14 previous reports that Iran was committed to the terms of JCPOA.

Meanwhile, Iran's former ambassador to the United Kingdom Jalal Sadatian said in an interview with Didban Iran website that the negotiations to revive the JCPOA have failed. He added that the 2015 agreement could be revived only with a miracle. "We should consider the JCPOA as a terminated case, and if Iran's nuclear issue is not resolved, its economy will not improve," Sadatian said, adding that Russia and China are not able to solve Iran's economic problems. He argued that there has been no benefit for Iran in the boosting of its ties with Russia.

Lately, Iran has been insisting that it can survive under US sanctions by closer ties with Russia and China. Vladimir Putin visited Tehran earlier this month and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei praised him for his invasion of Ukraine.

The former diplomat further said that Russia is determined to prevent Iran from providing oil for Europe while Europe is keen to have access to Iran's energy market.

In a related development, former diplomat and current political analyst Ali Bigdeli said in an interview with Nameh News website that there is no hope the nuclear talks would continue and bear results, nonetheless, the two sides are reluctant to declare the failure of the negotiations, partly because they know that there is no chance for another agreement.

Bigdeli's view is more pessimistic than the position of commentators such as Heshmatolah Falahatpisheh who believe that Iran and the United States should forget about the JCPOA and start working from the scratch on a new agreement.

Bigdeli went on to say without an explanation, that the United States is by no means prepared to accept a new agreement. In the meantime, Iran has demands from the US which are beyond the scope of the JCPOA, and the United States insists that the two sides should return to the 2015 nuclear deal.

It is not in Iran's interest to declare the failure of the JCPOA as this would be a bonus for Israel, which could launch a war in that case to protect its security, the analyst added.

Fararu website in Tehran quoted Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, former chairman of parliament’s foreign policy committee as saying that fully restoring the JCPOA is not possible in current circumstances, therefore, the EU is proposing lifting oil exports sanctions in return for “some monitoring” of Iran’s nuclear activities.

The conservative Iranian politician did not say if he has concrete information about the EU plan, which this week its foreign policy chief Josep Borrell presented to Washington and Tehran for consideration. But given statements lately by some officials and well-informed sources that restoring the 2015 nuclear agreement, JCPOA, is difficult, a limited plan might make sense from the perspective of Iran.

Tehran has always labeled the nuclear talks as “negotiations to lift sanctions” and if a plan calls for oil sanctions to be lifted in exchange for monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Iran has not really given up much.

Falahatpisheh did not say if he believes Iran’s uranium enrichment would be stopped or curtailed according to Borrell’s plan, a key issue given the fact that Tehran has enriched a considerable amount of fissile material to 60-percent and either already has enough for a nuclear bomb or is close to obtaining it.

Meanwhile, Axios quoted White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk as having told of experts last week that it “highly unlikely” that the JCPOA will be revived in the near future. He was also quoted as saying that with a deal highly unlikely, the Biden Administration plans to strengthen sanctions and diplomatic isolation against Tehran, “but not needlessly escalate the situation.” Use of force would only be a last resort; he was quoted as saying.

Borrell has said that his proposal includes a detailed plan about the lifting of sanctions, as well as steps that Iran must take, without offering details. This, in general might not be much different from what Falahatpisheh says the “temporary” deal could be.

John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesman in a briefing on Wednesday refused to comment on what Axios had reported about McGurk’s remarks.

However, he told reporters that the US remains committed first, “to seeing Iran never achieve a nuclear weapons capability,” and second, “the President believes diplomacy is the best path forward to see that outcome.” This was a reiteration of the long-held White House position.

Kirby added, “the negotiations are pretty well complete on a new JCPOA, and it’s on the table. And the onus is now on Iran to decide whether they’re going to take that deal or not.” He said that Washington and its European allies still believe that Tehran will “come back into compliance” with the JCPOA.

Kirby was not asked about Borrell’s proposal at the briefing, but he added that the President has an obligation to defend US interests and allies in the Middle East against continuing non-nuclear threats by Iran. The US has an obligation “to defend ourselves and to help defend our allies and partners against the range of other Iranian threatening behavior: their burgeoning ballistic missile capability, which continues to improve; their support for terrorist groups; their threats in the maritime environment. All of that is still happening.”

Delivering a keynote speech on rising crime in the United States on the second day of a two-day America First Agenda Summit on Tuesday, July 26, in Washington, Trump said Iran would never have been allowed to develop nuclear weapons if he had been the president.

“They (Iran) were dying to make a deal. They would have made a deal with us right after the election, and it would have been a good deal,” he added.

Trump claimed that “Iran, China, Russia and North Korea weren't going to do a thing against us just two years ago,” but now “we're a nation that is no longer respected or listened to around the world. We are a nation that in many ways has become a joke.”

Lashing out the policies of President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party for the country's ills, he decried Biden allowing an "invasion" by millions of migrants crossing the southern border, highest inflation in 49 years and highest gas prices “in the history of our country." "Our country is going to hell and is going to hell very fast... We are a nation in decline. We are a failing nation."

He stopped short of declaring his candidacy but hinted that he would run for president in the next election, noting that a Republican will be back in the White House in 2024.

In his daily briefing on July 26, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that “we are reviewing the draft understanding on mutual return to full implementation with the JCPOA that the high representative shared with us, as well as with Iran and the other JCPOA participants,” referring to a draft agreement by Josep Borrell, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. 

About the proposal being fully acceptable to the Biden administration, he said “this new text” that Borrell referred to [in an op-ed] is based on “an outline of what we believe to be a good deal on the table since March that we have been prepared to accept.”

In an article published by the Financial Times on Tuesday, Borrell said there is “no other comprehensive or effective alternative within reach,” stressing the need for swift political decisions. 

“We are studying the changes that have been proposed by the EU; we’ll respond to them in short order. And we hope that Iran finally and ultimately decides to seize the opportunity that has been before it for some time now,” he added. 

Dodging a direct answer about any definite timeframe or deadline on the talks to restore the deal, Price said that “we are going to continue to pursue a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA for as long as it’s in our interest to do so. That remains the case."