Ex-Diplomat Says BRICS Cannot Help Iran Without A Deal With The West
Amid Islamic Republic's international isolation, a few individuals with close ties to the regime appear optimistic about the country's recent inclusion in BRICS.
Amid Islamic Republic's international isolation, a few individuals with close ties to the regime appear optimistic about the country's recent inclusion in BRICS.
However, observers and experts in Tehran are starting to question the significance of this membership, particularly its unclear economic implications that Iranian officials have yet to elucidate.
There have been numerous social media posts about President Ebrahim Raisi's incoherent mumbling upon his return from South Africa at Tehran's airport. It can hardly be translated into any language including Persian, as it sounds like Greek to anyone, including Persians.
Nour News, a media outlet linked to Iran's Supreme Council of National Security, has offered this seemingly sophisticated explanation in a Threads post: "Six new members have been added to BRICS from the continents of America, Asia, and Africa. With these additions, 45 percent of the world's population and the owners of more than 30 percent of the world's gross product are now part of this alliance. This development signifies the breakdown of the old order that was rooted in geopolitics and the rise of a new order founded on geoeconomic cooperation."
The numbers, whatever practical implications they hold for Iran, are primarily driven by the substantial populations of India and China. However, the potential benefits of these figures for Iran remain uncertain, especially while the US sanctions are still in effect.
Kourosh Ahmadi, a former Iranian diplomat at the United Nations told Entekhab website in Tehran, " We cannot hold any hope of benefiting from the financial resources of BRICS as long as US sanctions remain in place," he emphasized. He went on to add, "Iranian officials must not be consumed by illusions regarding membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS. Should they fall into such illusions, their membership could prove more detrimental than not being members at all"
Ahmadi pointed out that BRICS members decided to magnify the alliance's importance after several years of disputes particularly between India and China. India had concerns about the possible anti-Western tendency of BRICS. Ahmadi further noted that some of the pro-West and pro-East countries invited to the South Africa summit, were not interested in becoming members.
The interactions between the leaders of China and India were notably less than friendly. In contrast, while Saudi Arabia was granted membership, Riyadh expressed its intention to deliberate on the issue. Evidently, Riyadh does not share Iran's urgency to forge alignments with either China or the United States.
Ahmadi expressed doubt that, in the long run, expanding the number of its members would necessarily elevate the significance or influence of BRICS, and added, "I can hardly contain my laughter when I hear Iranian officials suggesting that BRICS will undermine the international dominance of the US dollar."
According to Entekhab it is doubtful that Iran could benefit from its BRICS membership without finalizing the negotiations with the United States and Europe over the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA). Ahmadi defined BRICS simply as "a forum for dialogue." He added that it even lacks a secretariat and a charter. Its founders defined it as "a way to promote dialogue and cooperation between the member states." He further added: "It is something like the Non-Aligned Movement."
Ahmadi reiterated that "Iranian officials should understand that without sorting out the nuclear issue through negotiations and without accepting the terms of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), membership in organizations like BRICS or Shanghai cannot help Iran."
Regarding the Iranian government's propaganda, he said: "The government has every right to promote itself, but independent and knowledgeable individuals are also free to accept or dismiss it."
Mohammad Eslami, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, was referring to the bill passed by the parliament, dominated by hardliners, in December 2020, dubbed the “Strategic Action Plan to Lift Sanctions and Protect Iranian Nation's Interest.”
Eslami made the remarks during an event to unveil domestically-produced Cesium-137 radionuclide, announced as a “nuclear achievement” by the state media. The radioactive isotope of cesium is formed by the nuclear fission of uranium-235 in nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons. The product easily becomes volatile when released suddenly at high temperature, as in the case of the Chernobyl nuclear accident and with atomic explosions, and can travel very long distances in the air.
During a press conference on the sidelines of the event, Eslami was asked about reports regarding Tehran slowing down its 60% enrichment. "Our nuclear enrichment continues based on the strategic framework law," he replied, adding that “Our enemies were and are against Iran’s nuclear industry, but they all should know that the nuclear industry is a strategic industry."
The bill obligated the government to step up Iran’s nuclear program and enrich uranium beyond the limits set by the 2015 nuclear agreement, an effort aimed at forcing the United States to lift economic sanctions imposed in 2018, when former President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA. The bill also mandated restrictions on monitoring by the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), adding to the complicated dynamics of renewing the JCPOA.
The bill’s stipulation about higher levels of uranium enrichment was not an empty negotiating tactic. Iran actually began enrichment at 20 percent in early 2021, breaking the JCPOA limit of 3.65 percent. Subsequently, enrichment was increased to 60 percent during talks with West to revive the JCPOA.
Tehran now has enough fissile material for at least two nuclear bombs, and it also gradually restricted IAEA monitoring access to its nuclear facilities, introducing another complicating factor into the JCPOA talks.
Earlier in August, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran had significantly slowed the pace at which it was accumulating near-weapons-grade enriched uranium and diluted some of its stockpile, moves that could help ease tensions with the US and revive broader talks over Iran's nuclear program.
The report came a day after Iran released four US citizens from prison into house arrest with another American already there, the first step in a planned prisoner swap that Washington expects will eventually see them return home. Iran will gain access to six billion dollars of oil revenues trapped in South Korea under US sanctions, If the US detainees are set free. The US agreed to the release of another $3 billion held in Iraq.
Elsewhere in his remarks, Eslami said that Iran has maintained interactions with the IAEA, claiming that issues regarding four Iranian nuclear sites have been reduced to two. He added that a deputy of IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi is set to visit Iran in the near future.
Iranian lawmakers are divided over cooperation with the IAEA, with some against any cooperation. After the UN nuclear watchdog signaled its unhappiness with what it said was slow progress in its dealings with Iran, lawmakers pointed out that parts of a recent agreement with the IAEA are contrary to the "strategic action."
In June, Iran said it reinstalled 10 cameras of the UN nuclear watchdog in one of its installations that were removed last year when the UN watchdog’s board of governors in June 2022 censured Tehran for its lack of cooperation with the agency. Lawmaker Ali Khezrian said that re-installing IAEA monitoring systems at Esfahan (Isfahan) nuclear site was beyond the Safeguards Agreement and based on the additional protocol to the IAEA-Iran agreement, which cover basic requirements of cooperation with the IAEA under the NPT.
The secretive unwritten deal between Washington and Tehran appears to have several dimensions not disclosed yet with reports claiming that Iran has also restrained proxy militias in Iraq and Syria in addition to limiting nuclear activities.
“The prisoner deal is a key step forward for Washington and Tehran’s efforts to lower tensions as they eye a return to formal nuclear negotiations later this year,” the New York Times quoted Henry Rome, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.