Iran Reportedly Slows Nuclear Enrichment, As It Exports More Oil

Thursday night, Iran’s government-controlled media announced that a major security announcement would be made in hours, but nothing was announced. Finally, on Friday Iran released a video and a short report showing hundreds of parts said to have been defective and discovered due to the vigilance of intelligence entities.

However, Iranian journalists abroad pointed out that if the parts were indeed defective and reached Iran it means the Islamic Republic spent huge sums to acquire the fake or defective black-market parts, and now wanted to turn the fiasco into an intelligence success story.

"The intelligence unit of the Defense Ministry thwarted one of the largest sabotage plots targeting Iran's missile, aviation and airspace military industry," Iranian state TV said.

"This sabotage was carried out under the guidance of the Zionist intelligence services and their agents."

There was no immediate response from Israel. There have been reports in the past of foreign intelligence organizations succeeding in supplying defective dual-use parts to Iran. In 2010, a malicious computer worm dubbed Stuxnet was discovered in Iran that worked to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program by targeting supervisory control and data acquisition. It was believed that the bug was developer by Israeli and US intelligence services.

An unnamed Iranian defense ministry official was quoted by state media as saying a network of agents sought to introduce defective parts into the production of advanced missiles.

"The pilot determines the course, and the co-pilot must follow," said Mojtaba Zolnouri, whilst identifying President Ebrahim Raisi as the co-pilot. “If the president doesn't obey the Supreme Leader, people must pay the price,” he added.

On Wednesday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei commended President Ebrahim Raisi's administration for making advancements in enhancing relations with neighboring nations. Additionally, Khamenei aimed to justify the record of the Raisi administration by lauding its positive economic figures and "achievements," a stance that many experts and numerous Iranian regime politicians dismiss as political propaganda.

Zolnouri clarified that the president's identification as the nation's ‘co-pilot’ is not due to his proximity to leadership but rather from Raisi’s status among top authorities. Nevertheless, he reiterated that the leader is not subject to presidents' opinions; while officials offer views in expertise and consultation, ultimate decision-making rests with the Supreme Leader. “It's the president who must adhere to this authority,” he said, asserting that deviation from the pilot's decision is impermissible.

Regarding recent nationwide protests, Zolnouri blamed “external influences manipulating the virtual space, coupled with internal issues.” He countered the belief that such events signal the end of the Islamic Republic, asserting that “a system rooted in people's convictions remains resilient despite enemy-generated turbulence.”

The recent protests were the most widespread in the history of the Islamic Republic. The clerical regime has refused to recognize that the unrest triggered by the death in custody of a young woman in September was a genuine popular expression of dissatisfaction at the multiple crises Iran faces.

While it remains unclear whether such a meeting will take place and, if it does, who will take part, it is possible that the two sides engage in indirect or even direct contacts during the United Nations General Assembly.

Iranian political analyst Rahman Ghahremanpour told Rouydad24 website in Tehran on Wednesday that there is a good chance Tehran and Washington will use the UN General Assembly as a good opportunity to make adjustments in their positions to resolve some differences that hinder more negotiations.

He added that the presence of high-ranking officials such as Presidents Joe Biden and Ebrahim Raisi would provide a good opportunity to untangle thorny issues. However, Ghahremanpour believes that there are two different issues in the way: the willingness to solve problems and the ability to make progress.

He said that the recent deal to exchange prisoners and release Iran’s assets frozen in foreign banks due to US sanctions indicates that the administration of Ebrahim Raisi has concluded that it wants to resolve outstanding issues with Washington but the secrecy surrounding the agreement indicates that the Iranian regime does not seek media attention fearing a backlash from its hardliner supporters.

“We have seen in recent months that Iranian officials are revealing the least possible amount of information to the public, with most information coming from the Americans,” he said, arguing, “This indicates that the Raisi administration is concerned about the reactions of its supporters and even reformists regarding the agreement. Therefore, what we see is that the Raisi government is trying to implement this agreement without public proclamation.”

Some believe that the opposite can also be true; that the it is the Biden administration that is trying to avoid publicity about any secret deal beyond the hostage and money release agreement.

Ghahremanpour continued, “People do not have a clear understanding of whether an agreement has been reached or not. The government believes that by using this reticent tactic, domestic opposition will diminish.” He noted however that the problem with this tactic is that it dissipates the positive psychological impact of such an agreement on the country's economic environment.

He added that US President Joe Biden faces a similar challenge from the Republicans, underlining that Raisi has to deal with hardliners who voted for him and oppose any concessions to the United States.

All in all, Ghahremanpour was of the opinion that the next development in the relations between Tehran and Washington will not be shocking. After Iran releases the American prisoners and receives its blocked assets, the two sides will start discussing the nuclear issues, he said. “Their deals will continue covertly as Iran sells its oil and the United States ignores it.”

Earlier in the week, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani discussed the issue of talks about the country’s nuclear program and the removal of sanctions. He however insisted that there is no plan for direct negotiations with the US.

“As was the case in last year's United Nations General Assembly, where both sides showed interest and Iran demonstrated its eagerness to utilize diplomatic channels to lift sanctions, discussions took place on the sidelines of the summit,” he said, underlining that “There were direct talks with the JCPOA members and indirect talks with the United States.”

Last year, Hassan Rouhani, the only Iranian president who has ever spoken to a US president, said he had a chance to talk with Donald Trump when he was in New York in 2019. Rouhani talked with US President Barack Obama over the phone in September 2013. Obama initiated the call when the Iranian president was on his way to the airport to fly back to Iran after attending the UN General Assembly meeting.

Mohammad Salamati, the head of the Islamic Revolution's Mojahedin Organization (IRMO), added in an interview with Rouydad24 website that the immense economic pressure on the people has made them politically indifferent. Salamati further attributed the government's failure to wrong policies as well as naivete and weakness of government managers. 

Meanwhile, he called on the government and influential regime figures to pave the way for political participation rather than restricting people's choices before it is too late. 

Salamati went on to say that the people are currently facing high inflation, unemployment and social restrictions including the government's heavy-handed control of the Internet and information dissemination. This, he said, has eroded people's hope and made them indifferent and reluctant to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections in March. 

"The Guardian Council’s vetting of the candidates and its discretionary supervision of the election has made the people certain that the vote is not going to change anything in Iran. It appears that a large part of those who hold political power in Iran do not believe in people's participation in determining their own fate," Salamati said. He was referring to mass disqualification of more moderate candidates in 2020 and 2021 elections.

"Salamati added that "Only a competitive, free and fair election can restore people's trust in the government. It is only in that case, and with an improvement in the people's livelihood that they may be encouraged to participate in the elections." However, he said that "hard-headed officials are not capable of doing that."

Meanwhile, in a report about Iran's economic situation, Khabar Online website wrote last week that "The Raisi administration has failed to control the inflation rate and quoted an economist as saying that chronic high inflation will lead to the gradual deterioration of the country's infrastructures."

Iranian economist Mohammad Salimi Boroujeni told Khabar Online that the situation has left many businessmen with no motivation and reversed many conventional economic mechanisms. 

The website wrote that Raisi’s promises about reducing the inflation rate to single digits have led to no tangible results and currently the inflation rate is around 47.5 percent at the start of the third year of Raisi's presidency. 

However, some officials, including Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi even claim that the administration is ahead of its plans in controlling inflation and liquidity growth. He also promised that by March 2024, the inflation rate in Iran will be at its lowest point in five years. 

At the same time, economic experts have told Khabar Online that Khandouzi's statement is contrary to what they see in terms of the people's livelihood and their purchasing power. 

Boroujeni told the website that inflation has risen and the economic crisis has further deepened although the price of oil has remained stable, and officials claimed that the government's oil income is at a desirable level adding that according to them Tehran receives the oil money in cash. 

The economist added that the government's handling of the economy has reduced people's purchasing power, increased poverty and inequality and damaged growth and production in the country.

Nonetheless, he said that the government is likely to come up with a bigger budget deficit by the end of the year. However, he added that financial discipline, a reduction in the government's expenses and wasteful activities, as well as increased transparency about the its financial operations can restore people's trust in the regime. 

Princeton University faculty member Hossein Mousavian, who made headlines last year for bragging about the regime’s revenge against American officials over the targeted killing of IRGC's Quds Commander Qasem Soleimani, delivered a speech at the US Strategic Command’s Deterrence Symposium earlier in August. The US and EU-designated Soleimani coordinated Iran's proxy militant groups throughout the region to attack Israeli and US interests.

The Pro-Tehran pundit served as a key figure in Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the international community until 2005 and currently is a Middle East Security and Nuclear Policy Specialist at the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton. Oddly enough, he used to be the editor-in-chief of the regime-affiliated daily Tehran Times, which recently published a “sensitive” US government memo purportedly sent to US Iran envoy Robert Malley informing him of his security access suspension.

Mousavian’s appearance at the mid-August high-level event, which came to light on Monday, drew criticism from former US officials and Iran analysts as well as Iranian dissidents, who questioned why America’s premier military outfit would host someone who maintains close ties to the Islamic Republic and has even indirectly lauded the regime’s efforts to assassinate American leaders.

In January 2022, his remarks in a documentary made in Iran to mark Qassem Soleimani’s second death anniversary led to controversy when he gloated about how Iran’s threat to avenge Soleimani killing frightened the wife of Brian Hook, Washington’s special envoy for Iran at the time. “An American told me that Brian Hook’s wife had not slept for several days and that she was shaking and crying. That’s how afraid they were” Mousavian said gleefully in the documentary.

Reacting to Mousavian’s presence at the event, Omri Ceren -- a journalist and the national security advisor for US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) -- pointed out that there are many US officials sympathetic to the Iranian regime.

"Mousavian helped lead the murderous Iranian regime’s efforts to obtain nuclear weapons so it could threaten the United States and our allies with annihilation," said Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), a member of the House Armed Services Committee. "Now he’s in semi-retirement at Princeton as a full-time propagandist for the IRGC. Inviting him to spread lies at a US military seminar is insanity."

The former regime official started his speech at STRATCOM’s Deterrence Symposium 2023 noting that he was arrested in 2007 in Iran over charges of espionage for the US and was banned to hold any diplomatic post. However, former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, one of the main architects of the 2015 nuclear deal, described him as an official committed to the regime who "continues to work hard" for Tehran’s interests while working at Princeton.

Mousavian, who traveled to Iran to attend Soleimani's funeral, was Tehran’s ambassador to Germany when four Iranian dissidents were assassinated at Berlin's Mykonos restaurant in 1992. In December 2021, an American academic who was imprisoned in Iran for 1,216 days, said Mousavian is sympathetic to the Iranian regime, claiming that he stymied efforts to free him from prison.

Gabriel Noronha, a former Iran adviser at the State Department, told the Washington Free Beacon, "The decision to invite former Iranian ambassador Mousavian to speak to STRATCOM is unimaginably foolish.

He is a pawn and propaganda agent of the Iranian regime, Noronha added. "Congress should investigate the decision-making process that led to this entirely inappropriate speaking invitation."

Alireza Nader, a US-based Iran scholar, said it is "outrageous and dangerous that US STRATCOM invited a former regime official connected to the assassination of Iranian dissidents to be a speaker at its symposium, providing him access to America’s most senior military officials."

During his remarks at the STRATCOM event, Mousavian thanked Gen. Anthony Cotton – the commander of the US Strategic Command -- for inviting him to the event and said he would present an "Iranian perspective" on the current threat landscape within the Middle East. The United States must "rewrite their policy in the Middle East," he added.

He went on to criticize what he called American acts of aggression towards Iran, highlighting former President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal. What he said was somehow the repetition of his views summarized in an article he penned for the Middle East Eye in 2020: Biden needs to revive the JCPOA, remove Iran’s Revolutionary Guard from the US terror list, and lift the sanctions against regime’s senior officials.

Describing him as “an agent of the Iranian regime,” Advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) called on Princeton last year “to dismiss him from any association or affiliation with the university without delay”, noting that “Mousavian’s affiliation with Princeton is a stain on the university’s reputation and credibility”.