Iran's Money Printing Hits Record Amid Financial Crunch
Mardo Soghom
Iran International
As the Iranian government claims economic successes, a central bank report shows the money supply increased by 45% this year, heralding more high inflation.
Iran International
As the Iranian government claims economic successes, a central bank report shows the money supply increased by 45% this year, heralding more high inflation.
President Ebrahim Raisi has been making speeches claiming to have controlled inflation and reduced money printing, promising that the 50-percent inflation rate will drop to 30 percent in March 2024.
However, a report by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) quoted by media in Tehran says that in April 2023 the money supply showed a 45-percent growth over the same time last year. Money in circulation reached a staggering 88,700,000 trillion rials or around $177.4 billion calculated based on the exchange rate of 500,000 rials per dollar.
This is the highest level of money in circulation in Iran’s history, fueled by the government’s borrowing from the CBI that inevitable leads to printing money without any foreign currency or gold backing.
The Islamic Republic has always been printing excess money in its 44-year history, but at different tempos. When oil export revenues were high enough to support government expenditures, less money was printed. However, when oil prices declined or Iran was subjected to oil export sanctions, printing increased and rial’s value suffered. Sometimes the rial remained relatively stable for a few years, such as the second half of the 2000s, when oil exports and prices were high.
In 1978 before the revolution, one US dollar bought 70 rials, compared with around 4,000 in early 2018, and 500,000 now.
The United States withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal in May 2018 and imposed both oil export and international banking restrictions on Iran. That quickly translated into higher inflation and a hasty retreat of the rial. The process has only picked up speed in the past year, as the rial fell from 260,000 to 500,000 per dollar.
Other factors that have not allowed the oil wealth to boost the economy, which has had no growth since 2012, are an inefficient economic system and lack of foreign investments.
Estimates by Iranian economists indicate that 80 percent of the economy is controlled by the government, which controls banking, automakers, and the energy sectors, among many others. Political appointment of managers, nepotism, government interference and bad planning have led to inefficiency.
These factors in addition to international and US sanctions due to Iran’s confrontational foreign policy have prevented any meaningful volumes of foreign investment. This has left the economy mainly dependent on oil export revenues and more vulnerable to sanctions or low energy prices. Lack of investments have even damaged production in the oil and natural gas sectors, with less than one-tenth of investments compared to Saudi Arabia, and little technology infusion. Saudi Arabia’s Aramco energy company has been investing hundreds of billion dollars over the past two decades, with annual investments reaching a staggering $40-50 billion recently.
However, Iran's oil exports have been increasing and reached almost pre-sanctions levels in August, but the additional shipments so far have not translated into a financial improvement, lower inflation and a higher rate for rial.
According to a July report in Aftab News website, affiliated with Iran’s reformists, the government borrowed around $12 billion from four major quasi-private banks in three months ending June 21. To ensure availability of funds, it issued directives to these banks to reduce lending to the private sector, causing the loss of 500,000 jobs amid an already serious economic crisis.
These banks, which already face cash flow problems, rely on the central bank to replenish their reserves, Therefore, whether the government directly borrows from the CBI or from other banks, the money supply increases.
Mansur Haqiqatpur, the former deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, stated in an interview with Rouydad24 in Tehran, "Despite their small numbers, these ultraconservatives have seized control of all government institutions."
Referring to their widespread influence and their “irresponsible behavior,” Haqiqatpur emphasized that the nation, the media, and politicians should hold the ultraconservatives accountable for their destructive performance.
A few dozen hardliners in parliament and in President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration have increasingly resorted to eliminating others from the government bureaucracy and even universities, accusing some of insufficient “revolutionary” credentials.
The moderate conservative politician stated, "What we refer to as political purification today has always existed since the 1979 revolution; however, the trend aiming to limit political power to ultraconservatives has gained renewed momentum in recent years."
He suggested that everyone, including the hardliners, should realize that Iran belongs to all Iranians, and political purification will disappoint young Iranians who wish to play an active role in determining the fate of their country. Meanwhile, Haqiqatpur added, "We should not try to eliminate critics. It is unfair to hand over the entire affairs of the state to a group so small that they couldn't fill a couple of buses."
He criticized the government for suspending capable professors from universities and replacing them with non-experts. He reiterated that political purification is poison for the country and lamented that Gen. Hossein Alaei, the former commander of the IRGC naval force, is not allowed to teach at the university due to his reformist tendencies.
Meanwhile, prominent conservative commentator Nasser Imani stated in an interview that the influence of those pretending to be revolutionaries is a cause for concern. He said the rising influence of fake revolutionaries and the isolation of experts in the Iranian academia pose a threat to the country.
Imani added that the fake revolutionaries claim that anyone other than themselves is not a revolutionary. Khabar Online reported that, according to Imani, a group of individuals who see themselves as super-revolutionaries have infiltrated Iran's executive body and the country's propaganda machine.
However, Imani stated that Iranians' behavior in the upcoming parliamentary elections in March will show whether they will stand against these totalitarian ultraconservatives or tolerate their presence in state institutions. Imani also noted that the ultraconservatives do not attach any significance to public opinion, evident in the behavior of the state television that they control, which ignores people's demands and preferences for more open and balanced media.
Imani encouraged other conservatives to stand against the hardliners. Like Haqiqatpur, Imani confirmed that, compared to the large body of the conservative camp, the ultraconservatives are only a small group of politicians seeking to monopolize political power. He added that true conservatives should shun and isolate this vocal minority.
In another development, Iranian lawmaker Ali Rezaei told the press that Raisi’s ultraconservative government continues to blame others for the problems it has created or failed to solve. Blaming others, including the previous government, for problems, is not acceptable now that the parliament has only nine months left in its term, and the government has been in office for over two years.
Rezaei added that people can hardly believe that the dire economic situation of the country is likely to improve because of the government’s and parliament's performance. "Years ago, the people's problem was how to buy a house or a car. Now, the people's daily concern is how to feed themselves," he said.