Israel Will Destroy Iranian Proxy In Gaza, Deter Others - Spox

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced the planned visits of the Russian president on Tuesday, adding that the agenda for Ebrahim Raisi's Moscow visit is not finalized yet but discussions will likely include the Gaza war. 

Although not very frequently held, Raisi’s meeting with Putin is not unexpected as Tehran and Moscow are partners in crime, particularly since Iran is supplying Russia with drones and missiles for the invasion of Ukraine. 

Putin’s outreach to the Arab states of the Persian Gulf aligns with his broader strategy to foster global alliances outside the Western sphere, aimed at projecting the failure of US and its allies’ attempts to isolate Russia through sanctions. Aligning with the two most powerful Persian Gulf states helps give Putin a degree of credibility more than the allegiance with Iran, as the world views Russia, like Iran, as a rogue state.

The visit comes after OPEC+ agreed to voluntary supply cuts totaling about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), including an extension of existing Saudi and Russian voluntary cuts of 1.3 million bpd. Russia cooperates with all three countries in the OPEC+ group of oil producers, which last week announced new voluntary production cuts that were greeted skeptically by the oil market because of doubts as to whether they would be fully implemented. 

The visits by Putin and Raisi come as Russia is also hosting the littoral countries of the Caspian Sea, in a cooperation framework that Moscow says strengthens security in Eurasia. “The joint work of the Caspian countries makes a significant contribution to ensuring security, stability and sustainable development on the Eurasian continent,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a meeting with his Azerbaijani, Iranian, Kazakh and Turkmen counterparts in Moscow on Tuesday. 

Lavrov proposed the creation of “the Caspian Council -- a forum for cooperation and dialogue without any bureaucratic schemes,” emphasizing the need for enhanced international legal foundations and cooperation among Caspian countries. He expressed hope for further collaboration based on the outcomes of the upcoming Third Caspian Economic Forum in Tehran. 

The Russian foreign minister also highlighted that deepening practical cooperation across the region is also significant in a broader sense, namely in the context of the formation of a multipolar world order. Last month, hundreds of military leaders, lawmakers, diplomats and scholars convened in Canada’s 2023 Halifax International Security Forum to discuss the alignment of Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea as a substantial threat to the established world order. 

Leaders of these countries, including Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei, have repeatedly talked of a new global order not based on Western values.

It is a rare foreign visit for Putin who now has an ICC arrest warrant on his head for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. While it may limit his travels to most of the world, there remain some who still welcome him. 

The Houthis are one of several Iran-backed militant groups in the Middle East. They have been effectively in a state of war with Saudi Arabia since 2015 and have claimed support for Palestinians since the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7.

The British government has attributed the drone and missile attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea to Iran, but Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Tuesday "As we have clearly stated before, resistance groups are not taking orders from Tehran to confront the war crimes and genocide committed by Israel."

The United States, on the other hand, has also placed blame on Iran for a series of attacks in Middle Eastern waters by Houthis. Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, asserted in a Monday briefing with reporters that there is "every reason to believe that the attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran."

Recently, the Houthis confirmed launching drone and missile attacks on what they claimed were two Israeli vessels, Unity Explorer and Number 9. The attacks, according to the Houthis, were carried out "in response to the Yemeni people's demand and Muslim states' calls to stand with the Palestinian people."

Despite his claims of a four percent economic growth, observers note a lack of visible signs of development, coupled with high inflation and the depreciation of the national currency.

Defending the budget proposal, President Raisi said efforts were made to "realistically depict both revenues and expenditures." Addressing the parliament, he asserted that his government had experienced a four percent economic growth since taking office, following a decade of economic stagnation. However, his assertions are currently not subject to independent verification due to constraints on government agencies and a lack of transparent quarterly statistics.

Raisi acknowledged a budget deficit of approximately ten billion dollars but claimed that it had been compensated through income generation. Despite facing economic challenges, he expressed the government's commitment to avoiding a budget deficit in the current year.

There are no visible signs of economic development in Iran with international sanctions for the country's nuclear program, its brutal suppression of protests and its support of Russia's war on Ukraine significantly restricting trade, foreign investment, and access to financial markets.

High inflation rates further compound the economic woes, eroding the purchasing power of the local currency. This economic scenario poses challenges for businesses and individuals, impacting living standards and contributing to economic stagnation.

The proposed budget, presented to the parliament, revealed some key details, including tax revenues expected to be twice the government's oil revenues.

Last month, the Entekhab news website in Tehran reported that according to the budget bill, even the monthly incomes of 100 to 140 million rials ($200 to $280) will be subject to a 10 percent tax. Jahan-e-Sanat daily also warned that the Iranian government has counted on “inflation tax” to fill the next year’s budget. The Iranian calendar and fiscal year begins on March 21, 2024.

In a joint declaration released on Monday, the French Democratic Confederation of Labor (CFDT), General Confederation of Labor (CGT), Unitary Trade Union Federation (FSU), Solidarity trade union, and National Union of Autonomous Trade Unions (UNSA) accused the Iranian government of exploiting global attention on the ongoing conflict in Gaza to intensify its oppressive measures.

The declaration highlighted Iran's response to growing social and popular anger, particularly related to the economic crisis, by escalating repression. This comes amidst authorities increasing arrests of worker activists under false pretexts and targeting individuals who have organized peaceful demonstrations against the high cost of living and salary arrears.

The syndicates emphasized that repression extends beyond worker activists, impacting those expressing opinions contrary to the regime's beliefs, including lawyers, women's rights advocates, and human rights defenders.

Underlining the disproportionate impact on women who have come under increasing pressures to abide by mandatory dress codes and have witnessed state-sanctioned sexual violence in detentions as documented by Iran's Me Too movement, they stated, "Women are the first victims of the authoritarian and patriarchal regime."

The government's heightened execution rates, particularly public ones, were slammed as an attempt to instill fear in the population, putting to death at least 419 people in the first seven months of the year, a rise of 30% since the same period last year, according to the UN.

In a call for international solidarity, they urged all organizations and individuals defending human and workers' rights to protest against the Iranian authorities. Their demands include the abolition of the death penalty, annulment of unjust convictions contrary to fundamental freedoms, and the immediate and unconditional release of activists imprisoned for their opinions or union and association activities, as well as foreign citizens.

What Is Izz Ad-Din Al-Qassam Brigades?

In the emblem of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, a Hamas-style soldier is depicted, holding a rifle in one hand and the Quran in the other looking toward the Dome of the Rock. The flag next to the soldier reads "There is no God but Allah" accompanied by a Quranic verse positioned at the top of the emblem: "Therefore, you did not slay them, but Allah slew them."

The name is derived from Izz ad-Din al-Qassam, a cleric born in Syria and killed in Palestine either in a shootout with British forces in 1935 or was captured in November 1937 and executed by the British. Different sources offer the two versions of history. Qassam viewed Islam as a tool for resistance against Western colonization. He formed a military group to engage in jihad and combat against the British and Jews.

Embryonic Phase

The formation of the Qassam Brigades dates to 1984 when Ahmed Yassin, the founder of Hamas, established a small group called the Mujahidoun al-Flistinion (The Palestinian Fighter). The group's activities were exposed, leading to Yassin's arrest and a 15-year prison sentence. Just 11 months later, Yassin was released in a prisoner exchange and founded another armed organization called al-Majd (Glory) . The leaders of al-Majd were Yahya Sinwar, now a celebrity and on the top op Israel’s wanted list, and Rawhi Mushtaha. On February 16, 1989, Hamas forces abducted an Israeli soldier. Clues once again led to Sheikh Yassin, resulting in his return to prison. While Yassin was in prison, the new military organization of Hamas, Izz ad-Din al-Qassam, was set up in 1990, the initial cell was established in the Rafah, Gaza Strip. Its first commander was Salah Shehadeh, a holder of a brown belt in Japanese wrestling.

Many attribute the founding of the military wing of Hamas in the West Bank to Saleh al-Arouri, who currently resides in Lebanon. The initial military cell of Izz ad-Din al-Qassam in the West Bank was shaped under the leadership of Mohammad Abu Tir, once recognized for his distinctive ginger beard. The real powerhouse of Hamas' military muscle though is all happening down in the Gaza Strip.

Mohammed Deif; The Mastermind In The Shadows

The top operator leading the Qassam Brigades is none other than Mohammed Deif, right up there on Israel's most-wanted list. For his own security he's never caught snoozing in one spot for more than a night, hence his alias "Deif" or "Guest." When Salah Shehadeh got taken out by Israel, Deif stepped up to be the position of commander. Despite numerous attempts to knock him off, he's said to be still around and operating as an elusive figure. Reportedly after Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, he is in a wheelchair and has lost an eye. Some even reckon that if he's still alive, spotting him is like finding a needle in a haystack. He is said to be the mastermind behind Hamas' operations and the architect of the intricate tunnel network beneath the Gaza Strip.

Can Qassam Brigades Be Eradicated?

The Qassam Brigades do not generally disclose the number of their forces, but this number is estimated to be between twenty to thirty thousand troops. This is more than double the estimate from twenty-three years ago.

A high-ranking Israeli military official reported on 1st December, 56th day of war, that at least 10 out of 24 Hamas battalions have suffered significant damage. Additionally, more than 50 mid-level commanders and an estimated 5,000 fighters are believed to have been killed. It indicates that there is still a long way to go to defeat the Hamas military wing. The intensive phase of the ground offensive is expected to continue into early 2024 as part of a year-long or more campaign planned by Israel against Hamas.

Israel has set its objective to eradicate Hamas, committed to pursuing this goal for as long as necessary. Nonetheless, in the event of successfully neutralizing Hamas and its military wing, there remains no foolproof guarantee that a different hardline faction won't rear its head. The Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxy groups in the region appear keen on providing support, both ideologically and financially, potentially paving the way for the emergence of a new player in the enclave.

To take down the Qassam Brigades, it’s crucial to squeeze their cash flow, especially those from Iran, their primary military supporter. According to Economist, Hamas's financial empire generates over $1 billion annually. $750 million of that $1 billion is believed to come from abroad, according to Israel’s official. This substantial funding is a key factor in sustaining Hamas's current stockpile of arms and resources. The United States estimates that Iran contributes $100 million annually to Palestinian Islamist groups, primarily in the form of military assistance. Israeli officials claim that a minimum of $500 million annually, originates from Hamas's investments, including firms registered in various countries across the Middle East.

Getting on top of this challenge calls for a worldwide endeavor, intricately connected to both the ideological chessboard and the broader Palestinian puzzle -- a puzzle that has cast a devastating impact on both Israelis and Palestinians alike. As the Book of Proverbs wisely states, "The spirit of a man will sustain his infirmity; but a wounded spirit, who can bear?"

To wipe out the Qassam Brigades and dismantle Hamas for good or prevent the ‎emergence of any other Islamic extremist group, three big challenges need to be ‎tackled: their radical Islamist ideology, the Palestinian issue, andthe funding sustaining such entities. Navigating talks on Hamas-like ideological entity needs sharp minds, especially to figure out what the Islamic Republic of Iran's up to.

Even if Israel manages to get rid of Hamas, sorting out the Palestine problem means shaking up the peace talks and giving the two-state solution a fresh spin. Plus, putting a stop to Hamas's military wing needs a global effort, especially trimming their cash flow from Iran and Qatar. Post-Hamas, maintaining vigilant oversight is crucial to ensure Iran and its allies don't stir up any radical trouble, making sure that any peace process stays on track.