US, UK Sanctions Tighten Grip On Iran's Proxies

The IRGC launched ballistic missiles on Erbil last Monday citing the destruction of alleged "spy headquarters" and the dispersal of "anti-Iranian groups" as its objectives, causing a diplomatic furore in its wake. Iraq summoned Tehran’s chargé d’affaires in Baghdad to condemn the move and withdrew its ambassador from Tehran.

Hassan Hassanzadeh, the commander of the IRGC in Tehran, declared that the strikes were executed under the orders of Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.

While the IRGC claimed to have targeted a Mossad headquarters in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, referring to Israel's spy agency, Masrour Barzani, the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region categorically denied Iran's claims. Barzani condemned the attack on Erbil as a “crime against the Kurdish people,” accusing Iran of killing innocent civilians in its missile strikes.

The Arab League condemned the IRGC's attack, characterizing it as a “blatant aggression on the sovereignty of Iraq.” The condemnation rejected all "justifications and pretexts" put forward by the Islamic Republic for the attack, emphasizing the potential threat it poses to regional peace and security.

In a press conference on Monday, Naser Kanaani, the spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said the attacks were due to "tangible threats to Iran's national security" suggesting an imminent threat on its border.

Iraqis have since initiated a campaign to boycott Iranian products, encouraging the substitution of Iranian goods with locally-produced or Arab alternatives.

Tehran has tried to quash talk of trouble with Pakistan, but Pakistan's Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) has said it arrested a suspect in the 2019 assassination attempt on a top Pakistani cleric, saying the suspect is a "trained terrorist" who belongs to the Zainebiyoun Brigade, a militant group of Pakistani Shiites created by Iran to fight in Syria.

Pakistan’s CTD said that Syed Mohammad Mehdi was arrested in an operation at a bazaar in Karachi, accusing him of targeting clerics in the provincial capital and of working for Iranian intelligence.

This seems to be a signal by Islamabad that not everything is resolved with Iran, and the Pakistani government remains vigilant about any further actions by Tehran.

Similarly, Kurds in Iraq held a large protest rally on Monday to condemn Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on their capital Erbil a week ago that killed a Kurdish businessman.

Khuram Waris, who heads the CTD in Karachi, told Radio Mashaal that Mehdi is a Pakistani citizen who received training in a "neighboring country”, implicitly pointing the finger at Iran. He said:” He is a member of the Zainabiyoun Brigade. He was involved in many attacks, including the attack on Mufti Taqi Usmani in Karachi."

Usmani, a religious scholar and former top court judge in Pakistan, narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in Karachi in 2019. Two of Usmani's bodyguards were killed in the attack, for which no group claimed responsibility.

The IRGC’s January 16 attacks against Jaish al-Adl, a US designated terrorist group accused by Tehran of carrying out deadly attacks in Iran, were justified by Tehran as its "legitimate and legal right to deter national security threats."

Pakistan condemned the strike on its territory and responded on January 18 with air strikes against separatist groups allegedly hiding out on Iranian territory.

In Tehran, the government is trying to act as if it is business as usual, but the tension is palpable. Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said that while the recent attack on “terrorist bases” was due to what he called “an immediate necessity to deal with terrorists ready to operate”, suggesting an imminent attack had been thwarted, he stressed that relations between the two nations are “strong and fraternal”. 

Addressing the media, he said: “Terrorism is a common threat of both sides, and Tehran and Islamabad emphasize on fighting it, and the recent action cannot create a disruption in the relations between the two countries.

But as Pakistan continues to claim the terror on its soil is backed by the Iranian government itself, the question remains as to how diplomatic relations move forward. 

In a span of 24 hours, Iran’s IRGC launched missile and drone strikes on three neighboring countries, claiming ‘revenge’ for civilians and troops killed in the past few weeks. Having hit several locations in Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan Monday, Pakistan was the final country to feel the wrath of Iran’s Quds Forces. 

Pakistan swiftly responded by a targeted assassination of IRGC Colonel Hossein-Ali Javdanfar, killed in a car near the Pakistan border. Two of his bodyguards were also killed. 

The incident led to both Iraq and Pakistan withdrawing its ambassadors and Pakistan threatening to permanently close borders. The issue has also been raised to the Arab League which is set to hold an emergency meeting in the coming days or weeks. 

The Sunni group, Jaish al-Adl, could just be the fan to the flames of a relationship which was never entirely on solid ground and with the latest attacks on Pakistan, look to face a troubled future.

In a bid to calm fears, the state news agency IRNA, citing an anonymous source, reported on Monday that the “terrifying sound experienced in Garmsar was a result of the breaking of the sound barrier by a fighter jet.” The incident unfolded at approximately 9:15 local time, with the audible disturbance reaching the airspace of Garmsar, it added.

While IRNA did not disclose the affiliation of the fighter jet, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) referred to the aircraft as "educational" without specifying its organizational ownership.

Ahmad Rivadeh, the political, security, and social deputy of the Semnan governor, stated that the sonic boom occurred during a training flight mission. “Investigations are underway to determine the exact cause of the incident,” he claimed.

Behnam Bakhtiyari, head of the industry and mining office in Garmsar, earlier confirmed the sound of an explosion but stressed that the cause remains unknown. However, Governor Reza Khani asserted that no explosions occurred in any part of the city.

Since mid-2020, a series of explosions and fires have plagued various Iranian military, nuclear, and industrial sites, including pipelines and refineries.

One year ago, a blaze engulfed an Iranian military industrial factory in Esfahan, with suspicions pointing towards a drone strike as the cause.

Although authorities have not offered exhaustive clarifications for the incidents, they have linked several prominent sabotage attacks on facilities to Israel.

Naser Farshid, commander of law enforcement in Kerman province revealed that “the apprehended soldier was found in possession of two Kalashnikov rifles and six magazines containing a total of 180 rounds.” His motive is currently under investigation.

Citing the Islamic Republic Army, Tasnim News Agency has released the names of the five conscripted soldiers who lost their lives in the shooting.

The incident follows earlier reports in Iranian media about soldiers resorting to violence against their comrades or military authorities during their service. The motives behind such incidents are not officially disclosed by the military authorities of the Islamic Republic.

In a similar incident last year, a soldier in a barracks in the city of Deylam killed four other soldiers after taking them hostage. Iranian media attributed the soldier's motives for the killings and hostage-taking to not having been allowed to take leave.

Military service in Iran, known as "compulsory military service," is obligatory for all Iranian men above the age of 18, with certain exemptions. The mandatory 21 to 24-month service has faced criticism due to the physical and psychological pressures on soldiers, sometimes leading to outcomes such as suicide or violent acts.

Khorassan newspaper carried an article by Hamed Rahimpur arguing that Israel seems eager to go after valuable targets affiliated with Iran and its allies and therefore, the Tehran needs to establish deterrence and pose a credible threat. 

In recent weeks, Israel is suspected of targeted airstrikes that have killed several high-ranking Revolutionary Guard officers and top operatives of Iran’s ally, the Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas.

The successful campaign has put the Iranian regime in an awkward position of either tolerating the Israeli attacks or retaliate and risk a wider war. Iranian officials have been saying that one aim of the Israeli campaign is to draw Iran into a war, and this should be avoided.

"When an enemy makes a final decision to eliminate someone, sooner or later, they will act on their decision,” the article said and continued that the key issue is to be able to change the enemy’s calculus in predicting Iran’s response.

Khorassan newspaper suggested that Iran or its proxies should focus on attacking Israeli airbases hosting the F-35 advanced fighters to present a credible deterrence to further attacks on their valuable assets. The newspaper mentioned bases in Eilat, where it said Iran’s proxies have tested the feasibility of strikes, presumable with missiles.

Iranian-backed militia last week retaliated against a US base in Iraq after five of its IRGC officers were killed in an airstrike in Damascus, Syria.