Ukrainian Air Force Thwarts Russia's Iranian Drone Offensive

On Friday night, the United States hit about 85 targets linked to IRGC Quds Force and affiliated militia groups in Iraq and Syria, but fears of direct US retaliation to the Iran-backed attack in Jordan that killed three US soldiers and wounded scores did not materialize.

The Biden administration after waiting for five days, targeted bases and warehouses belonging to IRGC proxy forces in Syria and Iraq, after multiple reports indicated that these forces evacuated key personnel and perhaps some weapons.

The regime’s reaction to recent US attacks in Iraq and Syria has not exceeded its usual rhetoric of condemnation and accusations against “the enemy.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian condemned the attacks on Thursday, saying they stem from Washington’s “continued wrong and failed approach to resolving issues by resorting to force and militarism.”

Earlier in the day, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanaani also dismissed the US offensives as an “adventurous action” and a “strategic mistake,” claiming that they violate international law, the UN Charter, and sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria.

The Iranian currency also somewhat regained its footing, after falling more than 15 percent since early January due to rising regional tensions.

Meanwhile, the Syrian government, Hamas, and Iran-backed Iraqi militant groups Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and Hashd al-Shaabi condemned the attacks as well.

Hamas said the “aggression” was an attempt to “cover up Israel’s horrific crimes” in the Gaza Strip.

The Syrian Foreign Ministry warned that the attacks can “fuel conflict in the Middle East in a very dangerous way.”

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s office also condemned the airstrikes as a “new aggression against Iraq's sovereignty,” announcing they killed 16 people, including civilians, and injured 25.

The US-led coalition in the region “has become a reason for threatening security and stability in Iraq and a justification for involving Iraq in regional and international conflicts,” the office added.

State-sponsored and military-affiliated news agencies in Iran also covered US operations in Iraq and Syria.

IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency reiterated the regime’s rhetoric regarding the incident and even claimed that the Tehran-backed umbrella group, Islamic Resistance in Iraq, carried out a missile attack against Ain al-Asad Air Base in the western province of Anbar, where US forces are stationed. The attack has not yet been confirmed by US officials.

Fars, another IRGC affiliated news agency, published a report titled “‘Belated and Failed Attacks’: Biden Administration under Criticism.”

Citing Roger Wicker, ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, US House Speaker Mike Johnson, and Mike Pompeo, former secretary of state, Fars concluded that the recent US military operations in Iraq and Syria have failed to appease the critics of President Joe Biden, who has been under increasing pressure over the past days to retaliate against Iran and its proxies.

In what can be interpreted as an indirect reaction, IRNA, the Iranian state news agency, reported on Iran’s “defensive and military capabilities.”

Rouydad24, a relatively independent news agency in Iran, tried to distance itself from the mouthpieces of the regime and adopted a more analytical approach.

Rouydad24 conducted an interview with former Iranian lawmaker Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, who once served as the head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Iranian parliament.

Falahatpisheh discussed the “propaganda” objectives of Biden’s administration and stressed that the recent attacks were intended for “domestic consumption” in the US.

Discussing the relationship between Tehran and militant groups in the region, he remarked, “Now it is too late for Iran to say that it is not coordinating with the resistance forces.”

Iran has avoided any direct military involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict and has instead used its proxy groups such as Houthis and Hezbollah to attack Israeli and American targets in the Middle East. Nonetheless, Iranian officials claim these groups act “independently” and do not receive direct orders from Iran.

The rial, which had sharply fallen during the past ten days, regained around 30 percent of its value against the US dollar and other major currencies. The dollar had risen to almost 590,000 rials on January 29, after an attack on a US base in Jordan the previous day that killed three US soldiers and prompted fears of direct US retaliation against Iran.

The deadly drone attack followed 160 previous attacks against US forces in the region since mid-October, as well as attacks on international shipping by Iran’s Houthi allies in the Red Sea.

On Saturday, the dollar was trading at 565,000 rials in Tehran’s unofficial currency market. Before tensions rose during January the rial hovered around 510,000 per dollar.

The US response to the deadly attack took days to materialize, during which Washington signaled that it would not attack Iran directly and did not want escalation. Reports indicated that during this window of reprieve, Iran evacuated key personnel and emptied bases used by its proxy forces.

Iranian government media on Saturday highlighted rial’s recovery and the limited nature of the US strikes.

Iran’s economy suffering from a 50-percent annual inflation rate is vulnerable to a rising dollar, which can only lead to higher consumer prices and anger among its population.

The attacks also violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria, said Kanaani on Saturday, and called the US strikes as an “adventurous action” and a “strategic mistake.”

According to the official, the US military operations in Iraq, Syria and Yemen serve Israel’s goals and will only result in increased tension and instability in the region.

On Friday night, the United States hit about 85 targets linked to IRGC Quds Force and affiliated militia groups in Iraq and Syria.

The strikes were carried out in response to an attack on January 28 by Iran-backed militants against a US base in Jordan which claimed the lives of three American soldiers and left more than 40 injured.

Though Iran has avoided any direct military involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict, the regime has used its proxy groups such as Houthis and Hezbollah to attack Israeli and American targets in the region.

Meanwhile, Syria and Iraq also condemned the US overnight attacks.

“What (the US) committed has served to fuel conflict in the Middle East in a very dangerous way,” read the statement issued by the Syrian Foreign Ministry.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s office also dismissed the offensives as a “new aggression against Iraq's sovereignty.”

The US-led coalition in the region “has become a reason for threatening security and stability in Iraq and a justification for involving Iraq in regional and international conflicts,” the office added.

According to Baghdad, the US attacks in Iraq killed 16 people, including civilians, and injured 25.

White House National Security Spokesperson John Kirby stated that Washington had notified Baghdad prior to the attacks. Iraq has called Kirby’s assertion “a lie.”

Expressing grave concern, the human rights organization warned that Deris, who has endured torture, faces the serious risk of execution.

In a statement released on Friday, Amnesty highlighted that Deris's legal team “have submitted an application for a special appeal…, under which the Head of the Judiciary can refer a final judgment he deems as contravening Shari’a law to a special branch of the Supreme Court for a conclusive verdict. This appeal is pending.”

Deris was sentenced to death by a Revolutionary Court on October 19, 2022, on charges of "enmity against God" related to his alleged involvement in a protest in Mahshahr on November 18, 2019. The protest was violently suppressed by security forces, resulting in the deaths of numerous protesters and a commander of Iran’s Counter Terrorism Special Forces (NOPO).

Authorities have accused Deris of involvement in the death of the commander, a charge he denies.

Amnesty International has received information from credible sources indicating severe human rights violations following Deris's arrest. Revolutionary Guards agents reportedly denied him access to legal representation for months during the investigation phase. Deris was subjected to torture, including beatings, prolonged solitary confinement, and threats against his family members, including threats of sexual violence against his wife.

Amnesty International has urgently called upon Iran’s judiciary “to immediately quash the conviction and death sentence of Abbas Deris and release him unless he is charged with an internationally recognizable criminal offence and is given a fair retrial without recourse to the death penalty and excluding torture-tainted confessions.”

The organization's budget has been always on the rise, but this is the first time the government increases it to such gigantic proportions in local currency. The increase is less significant in US dollars, due to the steady devaluation of Iran’s currency. Some Iranian media and political activists say the ultraconservative Paydari Party's influence in the Iranian parliament (Majles), in the government and its political interest in the state TV played a major part in the budget rise.

Both the state TV (IRIB) and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) are crucial entities in the eyes of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, serving to protect his regime and spread his ideology globally. However, despite their significance, these organizations have been facing challenges.

Observers inside and outside Iran note that, based on research conducted by various agencies, including the state TV's own polling agency, the IRIB's legitimacy and political impact have eroded. The state TV's popularity has declined significantly, from 57 percent to just 11 percent, as many Iranians increasingly turn to social media and foreign-based satellite television for news, entertainment, and political insights.

A chart highlighting the rise in the IRIB's budget from less than 5 trillion to 240 trillion rials between 2011 and 2024 reveals Khamenei’s support for the state TV. The most recent increase shows President Ebrahim Raisi’s support also, as IRIB downplays his lackluster record and failures by highlighting fabricated achievements.

Last September, the IRIB announced a 20 percent decline in the popularity of its TV series. Subsequently, the state TV began to call on celebrities to produce popular shows for it. However, it has acknowledged recently that the popularity of shows, which address young Iranians, are less than 5% and a show called Non-Stop, has only 2% viewership. Channel 3 that broadcasts Non-Stop was until recently the number one channel in Iran.

Meanwhile, the polling agency ISPA said in December that only 9.37 percent of Iranians follow the news on the IRIB. The figure, according to the IRIB was 51 percent in 2017. During the current year, IRGC-linked Fars and Tasnim and government-owned ISNA warned the government in several reports about the unpopularity of the state TV and the sharp decline of its viewership. Trust in IRIB news has been constantly declining during the past six years, the reports said.

The IRIB has defended the rise in its budget arguing that it is not too much in comparison to the major media outlets in the West. Social media users reminded that while most of the big TVs in Europe and the United States have around 10,000 to 20,000 staff members, the IRIB has a bulky staff of over 50,000 people.

Hardliners in Iran also defended the state TV with some calling it "the nation’s honor." They claim that IRIB is the only media outlet that defends Iranian culture and identity, although most of its programs are Shiite religious propaganda. Most Iranians characterize IRIB's output unrelated to Iran's age-old culture and unique identity and scold the state TV for being Palestine's rather than Iran's national TV.

Khabar Online wrote in a report that IRIB has not been successful in promoting the Islamic Republic's ideology either. Shadmehr Rastin, a media critic, told the website that the most IRIB can do is to preserve its current 10% viewership. However, he noted that according to hardliner politician Vahid Jalili the deputy director of the IRIB and a Paydari member, it still has a 24 percent viewership. However, Jalili was not able to quote any research to back up his claim. According to Khabar Online, IRIB insiders say that the state TV produces its programs for only 10 percent of Iran's population who support the regime and its ideology.