Iran's Hardliners Fear A Republican Victory In US Elections
Ruling hardliners in Iran are growing increasingly apprehensive about the possibility of a Republican victory in US presidential elections, leading to a tougher stance towards Tehran.
Ruling hardliners in Iran are growing increasingly apprehensive about the possibility of a Republican victory in US presidential elections, leading to a tougher stance towards Tehran.
Among these hardliners, there's notable concern regarding the prospect of Donald Trump making a political comeback. Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) shattered the hopes of both Iranian hardliners and moderates, who had envisioned reaping benefits from the nuclear deal with the West in exchange for curbing their nuclear ambitions, while expanding their conventional capabilities and regional influence.
Since then, although the Biden Administration has been too kind to Tehran and often turned a blind eye in the face of mischiefs by Tehran, politicians in Tehran still believe that Biden could have done more than giving billions of dollars to Iran in return for releasing US hostages and releasing Iran's frozen assets in South Korea, Iraq and elsewhere.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his hardline loyalists have little reason to be alarmed by the prospect of President Joe Biden taking tougher action, as they succeeded in convincing his administration to release billions of dollars. They have been led to believe that they can influence the current administration by occasional sabre rattling or by threatening a nuclear escalation, which would be stopped by more concessions from the United States.
Earlier in this week, former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi implied that Iran has already surpassed the nuclear threshold.
However, the Iranian Parliament's research center warned the country's top officials including Khamenei about the bleak economic implications of Trump's victory in US elections.
Meanwhile, after a eulogist harshly criticized Iran's moderates and particularly former President Hasan Rouhani for spending too much time and resources to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, reformist activist Reza Nasri reminded hardliners that if they had allowed the former government to revive the JCPOA during Biden’s presidency, most of its restrictions would have disappeared in due course.
Nasri further cautioned the ruling hardliners that within a year, Iran's nuclear dossier would be revisited at the UNSC, posing a challenging scenario should Donald Trump or Nikki Haley win the US presidential election. While Trump's foreign policy largely revolved around relations with Ukraine and Russia, Haley has consistently adopted a tough stance on Tehran and its leading clerical figures.
Highlighting the potential repercussions, Nasri warned that Iran's UNSC dossier could adversely impact three generations of Iranians.
Conversely, the Majles Research Center highlighted the concerning trend of Iran's diminishing foreign currency reserves over recent years, likening it to a form of economic disarmament. Warning of potential repercussions, the Center cautioned that a return of Trump to the White House could result in more sanctions, and this will be a shock to the financial markets in Iran. Furthermore, Trump has promised to make a deal with Russia and to focus on harnessing China. In this case, China is likely to reduce oil purchase from Iran and this will further shrink Iran's foreign currency reserve.
Furthermore, the Research Center pointed out another implication of Trump's potential return to the White House: challenges in Iran's economic partnership with Russia. Babak Negahdari, Chairman of the Majles Research Center, underscored the current decline in Iran's economy, evident from the situation of industries in the stock market, and emphasized the looming challenges ahead.
For instance, he highlighted a projected $3.7 billion deficit for importing essential commodities, which would require tapping into foreign currency reserves or the Central Bank. Negahdari warned of the likelihood of increased sanctions against Iran and the resultant shock to financial markets under a Trump presidency, suggesting that despite the Biden Administration's tenure, Iran's economic crisis may persist. He cited Iran's growing reliance on the UAE for marine logistics as a potential threat to food security and financial stability, indicating the pressing challenges facing Iran's economic landscape.
“A House vote against American national security is a vote to appease and empower the Iranian regime. Period,” reads a White House memo aimed at Republican representatives and seen by several journalists.
The memo, written by senior Biden adviser Andrew Bates, argues that since Iran is helping Russia against Ukraine (and Hamas against Israel), not passing the legislation would strengthen Iran’s position.
“Iran is integral to Putin’s war effort in Ukraine,” reads the memo, “providing him with weapons and financial support. Right now, Russians are killing Ukrainian civilians with Iranian drones. Iran is even considering supplying Russia with short-range ballistic missiles.”
The intervention is remarkable with respect to Biden’s Iran policy. For almost three years, House Republicans have been pushing Biden to adopt a tougher stance on Iran, warning him about the dangers of an ascendant Islamic Republic. Now the table seems to have turned, and it’s Biden stressing the perils of not taking the threat seriously.
Iran has provided hundreds of kamikaze drones to Russia that have been used against civilian targets and infrastructure, forcing Ukraine to use expensive Western air defense weapons against the cheap Iranian drones. There have been reports that Tehran might have also supplied ammunition and even possibly missiles.
The bill asks for $60 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel (as well as $5 billion for US allies in the Far East and $9 billion for humanitarian aid). It passed the Senate Monday but faces an uphill battle in the House, where speaker Mike Johnson has called it “dead” before hitting the House floor.
The Biden administration and the Democrats in the Congress have accused Johnson and other opponents of the bill of kowtowing to Donald Trump, who has expressed his opposition to the bill and called on the Republican lawmakers to reject it.
Trump critics say he’s opposing the bill because it includes a bipartisan deal to address the US ‘border crisis’, which may rid him of a potent weapon against the Democrats in the 2024 election campaign.
The memo includes an indirect but clear reference to Trump, who raised many eyebrows last week when he suggested that the US should exit NATO, and Russia should attack members of the alliance. Reminding the Representatives of their “stark” choice, the memo reads: “unhinged, irresponsible voices on the right are even encouraging Russia to attack our closest allies and agitating to unravel NATO.”
Speaker Mike Johnson has cited border control as his main source of opposition to the bill and its selection for vote in the House. “National security starts with border security,” he said Tuesday, responding to the administration’s claim that the failure to provide help to Ukraine would affect national security.
Earlier Tuesday, Biden had called on the House to pass the bill on that very ground.
“If we do not stand against tyrants who seek to conquer or carve up their neighbors’ territory, the consequences for America’s national security will be significant,” Biden said in a statement. “It is time for the House to take action and send this bipartisan legislation to my desk immediately so that I can sign it into law.”
Analysts say such interventions prove that the Biden administration is far from confident in the bill’s chances.
“Will House Republicans side with President Biden and Senators on both sides of the aisle in supporting American national security? Or will House Republicans, in the name of politics, side with Vladimir Putin and the regime in Tehran?” the memo reads. “The House GOP cannot lose sight of this binary choice.”