As New Year Begins, Iran Grapples With Inflation And Poverty
As the new Iranian year commenced on March 20, the Iranian press overflowed with complaints, criticism of the government, and dire economic forecasts.
As the new Iranian year commenced on March 20, the Iranian press overflowed with complaints, criticism of the government, and dire economic forecasts.
A video released by Etemad online, showed prominent cleric Alavi Boroujerdi speaking out against the government regarding the people's challenging circumstances. He protested that "The people are no longer able to endure the economic hardships," and pointed out that "the clerics are being held responsible for all their troubles."
Boroujerdi also criticized the government for the way it is running the affairs of the state. He said: "The people's economic situation is very bad. Bring in a few honest experts to address the problems as people's patience has come to an end."
Meanwhile, in an interview with Rouiydad24 website, labor activist Hassan Sadeghi warned the government about a fast approaching 67-percent inflation rate in the new year. Sadeghi also warned that the price of gasoline is also going to rise in the new year. The latest gasoline price increase by the government in 2019 led to nationwide protests in Iran during which security forces reportedly killed around 1,500 Iranians.
Sadeghi lamented the state of the country's economy, criticizing the decision to entrust economic matters to individuals lacking adequate expertise in the field of economics. He cautioned that with inexperienced non-experts overseeing the nation's economy, the Iranian currency is poised to face further devaluation in the upcoming New Year, beginning on March 20.
Expressing concern, Sadeghi cautioned that these developments could precipitate crises, including widespread protests in Iran in the coming year. He highlighted the anticipated impact of inflation and rising prices, particularly on the most vulnerable segments of the population. Additionally, he noted that the heavy reliance on taxation in the government's budget for the New Year is likely to exacerbate the inflationary pressures.
Furthermore, Sadeghi suggested that the Iranian government should take cues from Turkey's approach and adjust wages to keep pace with the rise in inflation. However, talks between the government and representatives of workers yielded no progress on the eve of the New Year.
In another development, former Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, who was President Ebrahim Raisi's rival in the 2021 presidential election, wrote in a tweet: "Government officials are lauding each other for achieving a 4 percent economic growth rate, even as the official inflation rate stands at a staggering 42 percent. Hemmati pointed out that "in 2020, despite facing intense pressure from the US and grappling with the pandemic, Iran managed to achieve a 4.2 percent economic growth, with meager oil revenue of only $7.4 billion." This achievement is particularly noteworthy considering that Iran faced fewer obstacles in exporting oil last year, resulting in oil revenues exceeding $30 billion."
In an earlier letter to the Iranian President, Hemmati had told Raisi that "With the plan you called 'economic surgery' you created a triple-digit inflation rate for commodities such as meat, poultry, and dairy products people need on a daily basis.”
He addressed Raisi directly, stating, "You recently expressed your desire for a headline in the press that reflects the government's empowerment of Iran! But can we truly consider the sharp decline in people's purchasing power, in a country endowed with the world's largest oil and gas resources, and the fact that over 30 percent of the population has fallen below the poverty line as indicators of a powerful nation?"
As evidence of the Iranian government's inefficiency, Hemmati highlighted that one year after the conclusion of Iran's 6th development plan, the country's 7th development plan remains unfinished. Additionally, just five days before the end of the current Iranian year, the government has yet to finalize the annual budget bill for the upcoming year.
Adding to the nation's woes in the Iranian year that ended on March 20, the emigration of nurses and specialist doctors, leaving critical positions unfilled, coupled with a significant brain drain and substantial capital outflow, further dampened the outlook for the current year, which commenced on March 20.
However, the trials of the past year were not confined to the Iranian people alone. The regime, particularly under the leadership of Ali Khamenei, faced an arduous and disheartening period. This challenge can be delineated into five distinct aspects: regional developments, shifts in political dynamics and institutions, revelations, the plight of the impoverished, and the resilience of women's resistance.
Hamas on the verge of destruction
Following the brutal attack on October 7th, Ali Khamenei expressed his support by enthusiastically stating that he would honor Hamas fighters. However, the publication of videos depicting Hamas's atrocities, including rape, burning, and the killing of children, as well as the tragic deaths of over 200 young people at a music festival, deeply shook the international community. Consequently, Israel felt compelled to take control of Gaza. This attack has inflicted significant damage on Hamas and its infrastructure, with repercussions still unfolding.
The weakening of Hamas's military capabilities undermines one of Khamenei's key threats against Israel's existence. Much of this damage has already been done, and Ali Khamenei is quietly witnessing the setbacks to his "resistance axis."
Failed manipulated elections
The heavy-handed manipulation of the 2024 parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections, coupled with Reformists’ refusal to vote, resulted in a significant decrease in voter turnout, dealing yet another blow to Khamenei’s regime. Even a sizable portion of traditionalist Islamist forces opted out of the electoral process, leading to a stark decline in voter participation, particularly in major cities, where turnout plummeted to roughly one-third of eligible voters. The event marked the worst elections in the Islamic Republic’s 45-year history.
No member of the upcoming parliament (Majles) or Assembly of Experts can rightfully claim to represent the people, when some got elected with less than 5 percent of total eligible votes. The election results were so disappointing that there was a four-day silence before they were acknowledged, followed by a baseless characterization of the outcome as an "epic victory."
Clerics unmasked
Shia clerics have long operated in secrecy, avoiding transparency in their actions and dealings. They withhold information from the public for two main reasons: to cultivate an aura of mystery that reinforces their perceived sanctity and to evade accountability for the privileges, corruption, and crimes committed by members of their institution against the vulnerable populace. However, a series of judicial document hacks, government correspondence leaks, and revelations of corruption have shattered Khamenei's once tightly controlled image.
In recent years, Khamenei's governing approach, which allows his agents to exploit resources in exchange for loyalty, has become apparent to the public. Even the most devout segments of society no longer buy into the spectacle of him walking among the tombs of Shia imams, bathed in divine light, as portrayed on IRIB TV stations. The year concluded with the exposure of corruption involving one of his close associates, Kazem Siddiqi.
Persistent women torment Khamenei
Khamenei is characterized by his vindictive nature, relentlessly pursuing his adversaries even to their graves and showing little regard for anyone's fundamental right to self-expression.
In March 2022, Khamenei declared, “The hijab is not only a religious and legal obligation but also a moral and political one.” However, throughout the year, millions of Iranian women boldly flouted this decree in the streets, hospitals, banks, official gatherings, and entertainment venues, casting aside his words with defiance.
For Khamenei, who, until two years ago, ruthlessly enforced the hijab, violently apprehending women for showing even a glimpse of their hair and subjecting them to humiliation, torture, and fines, it is now deeply unsettling to witness this widespread disobedience. Firing teachers or doctors or targeting mothers with infants does little to quell the turmoil within him. At night, he is haunted by nightmares of women freely enjoying the beach in bikinis or riding bicycles through the streets and markets in tank tops and shorts."