Iran Wavers On How To Respond To Israel
Opinion - One week following Israel's targeted strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, resulting in the deaths of seven high-ranking Quds Force officers, Tehran appears undecided on its response.
Opinion - One week following Israel's targeted strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, resulting in the deaths of seven high-ranking Quds Force officers, Tehran appears undecided on its response.
President Ebrahim Raisi participated in an evening session of Iran's National Security Council shortly after the incident, yet no definitive actions were announced.
Following the extraordinary meeting, Iran dispatched a letter to the UN Security Council regarding Israel's attack, delivered by the nation's deputy representative to the United Nations. Apart from this diplomatic action, holding funerals, and engaging in extensive propaganda emphasizing martyrdom, the regime has refrained from further measures.
"Definitely, in connection with the attack on the Iranian consular building in Damascus, several meetings of the Supreme National Security Council have been held at the level of leaders" says the Raisi administration’s Minister of Sports and Youth. The recurrence of these meetings suggests an internal divide among security, military, and political leaders regarding the appropriate response to what Tehran perceives as a significant Israeli provocation. The absence of concrete action a week after the incident may also indicate underlying disagreements.
The Islamist government and its supporters faced a significant setback following the killing of Qasem Soleimani, compounded by the opposition's jubilation, praising Bibi Netanyahu as "the only friend in difficult times." Their reactions have been limited to mere promises of retaliation and statements from the Leader’s office vowing the destruction of Israel. While these actions may serve as propaganda tools, they fall short in alleviating the humiliation felt by the regime.
While IRGC circles continue to threaten a harsh retaliation, other regime circles, such as Friday Imams call for caution and “strategic patience. The publication of a claim that Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the top general killed in Damascus, was one of the planners of the October 7 Hamas attack partially reinforces the idea that revenge has already been taken and there is no need for further action.
This reluctance to respond indicates that the IRGC is further entrenching itself in its predicament. Tensions are escalating both internally and externally, with society increasingly resentful toward the authorities. The decision to forego a separate funeral for the deceased and instead incorporate their memorial into Friday prayers underscores this sentiment.
Any serious escalation and possibly a direct war with Israel, will deal a heavy blow to Iran’s beleaguered economy, a scenario probably loathed by many politicians within the clerical-military system. Already, the currency rial has fallen by 30 percent since early January, and now stands close to 650,000 to the US dollar.
Another significant hurdle to a military retaliation is the profound deficiency in Iranian intelligence operations within Syria, enabling the success of Israel's actions. Furthermore, as time elapses, the range of available but untapped options diminishes, complicating the decision-making process for a response. Since October 7, the foreign operations of the Quds Force have already exhausted some of their most readily deployable strategies, such as missile launches and assaults on commercial vessels.
Some believe that Israel has already given Iran’s rulers the opportunity for justifying inaction, by saying that the attack on the embassy in Damascus was a response to a serious attack on Eilat by Iran’s proxies. The panic-buying in Israeli supermarkets was also portrayed in Iranian government-controlled media as a victory without having fired a shot.
The opinions expressed by the author are not necessarily the views of Iran International
Abbas Amirifar, the cleric who severed ties with Ahmadinejad following the former President's rift with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2011, continues to uphold his connections to the ultraconservative Paydari Party, which some believe still has ties to the former president.
Amirifar told Khabar Online that Ahmadinejad hopes Khamenei will reinstate him to the presidential office in the event of a complete political impasse. He remarked that while former reformist President Mohammad Khatami engaged in some form of compromise with Khamenei during his presidency, Ahmadinejad betrayed Khamenei unfairly, despite Khamenei's strong support for him.
He further expressed his opinion that the only reason Ahmadinejad, a proud man, tolerates his position at the Expediency Council, where he is subordinate to his arch-enemy Sadeq Amoli Larijani, is because the role shields him from allegations of opposition to the regime.
Amirifar, now critical of Ahmadinejad, stated he no longer wishes to be associated with him. However, he acknowledged that he doesn't regret his collaboration with Ahmadinejad, whom he described as a modest and popular president during their time together.
He also criticized Sadeq Mahsouli, the leader of Paydari, for amassing wealth under dubious circumstances. Amirifar claimed that Mahsouli didn't even own a house when he started working with Ahmadinejad.
The Paydari Party increased the number of its parliamentary seats in the March 1 elections, after hardliners prevented hundreds of other candidates from running. The party is poised to control the new parliament that will convene in late May.
"When Ahmadinejad fell out with Khamenei over their choices for the Intelligence Minister, I privately warned the former President against opposing Khamenei's ideas. I told him: You cannot stand against Khamenei," Amirifar said.
He went on to explain that "Now, as far as the regime is concerned Ahmadinejad is finished. He has changed beyond recognition and supports dancers and homosexuals. The regime will no longer allow him to be in a position of power." Amirifar reiterated that many of those who used to work with Ahmadinejad are now working with President Raisi.
Many Iranians including some reformist figures such as Former President Khatami's Chief of Staff Mohammad Ali Abtahi also share that opinion. Abtahi has said in an interview with Rouydad24 that that the ultraconservatives who control parliament are the true examples of the radicals in Iran's conservative camp.
Simultaneously, he criticized the ultraconservatives in the government, asserting that they not only exacerbate the nation's hardships but also impose their hardline ideologies through government policies, such as restricting internet access, which he likened to poking the nation in the eye.
Abtahi emphasized that radicalism has its limits, and exceeding the pressures on Iranian society could provoke strong reactions. He highlighted that despite winning only 300,000 votes, some individuals now perceive themselves as representing Tehran's 10 million inhabitants, which could lead to backlash if they fail to grasp the people's demands, especially regarding the lifestyle of young Iranians. Nonetheless, most new lawmakers neither view themselves as representatives of the people nor are they recognized as such, potentially resulting in the populace disregarding any radical legislation they propose.
Echoing Amirifar's sentiments expressed in his interview with Khabar Online, Abtahi suggested that the regime's only escape from deadlock lies in altering its governing approach.