Iran's 'Reformists' Undecided About June Presidential Vote

In an op-ed for the Australian Age daily, Australian scholar Kylie Moore-Gilbert criticized recent statements made to the Iranian government by several Western governments, EU officials, and NATO.

She called their condolences "tone deaf to the prevailing view inside Iran and the diaspora that Raisi was a tyrant with an inordinate amount of blood on his hands."

President Ebrahim Raisi and seven others, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, died in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border in northwestern Iran last Sunday.

Raisi, often referred to as the “Butcher of Tehran,” led a "Death Commission" that oversaw the extrajudicial execution of thousands of Iranian political prisoners in 1988. His tenures as judicial chief and later as president were marked by authoritarian measures and brutal crackdowns on dissent.

Moore-Gilbert, a lecturer on Islamic studies, also criticized the Australian government for repeatedly failing to firmly oppose Iran's terrorism sponsorship, hostage-taking of Australians, and transnational repression.

In 2018, she was detained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) in Iran on alleged espionage charges and sentenced to 10 years. She was released in 2020 in a prisoner exchange.

Australia has faced growing calls since 2022 to list the IRGC as a terrorist unit but has resisted. On Friday, it added the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis to its terrorist list.

IRGC Chief Commander Hossein Salami and Quds Force Chief Esmaeil Qa’ani met with the leaders and representatives of Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, PFLP, Ansarullah (Houthis), and Iraqi Shia militant groups.

“Raisi's body was in the next room when they were talking,” Beni Sabti, a researcher in the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) think tank, told Iran International. He used to serve as Persian spokesman for the Israeli government on Iranian issues.

The timing of the meeting speaks volumes, according to Sabti who believes it was partly propaganda to save face.

"Even (Syrian President) Bashar al-Assad didn't come. Even (Russian President Vladimir) Putin didn't come. So they had to meet someone. They had to produce this picture that we are acceptable. We have legitimacy in the Middle East and who they had?...The head of terrorist organizations," said Sabti.

During the meeting, the participants “reviewed the latest regional developments and emphasized the continuation of jihad until victory in Gaza is achieved,” according to IRGC-affiliated media outlets.

‘Iran's late foreign minister the chain to terror proxies’

"There’s a more important thing about this meeting: It was not about Raisi, it was about the foreign minister, [Hossein] Amir-Abdollahian."

Sabti called the late Iranian foreign minister the link between the Islamic Republic and their proxies in the Middle East.

"Most of us talk about Raisi, the president, but Raisi was the less important guy in that helicopter, or maybe in the whole foreign policy issues. For Iran, the main guy there was Amir-Abdollahian because he was a link and part of the chain. A chain from the Iran regime to these terror organizations," said Sabti.

Amir-Abdollahian had attended the inauguration of two dams near the border with Azerbaijan where Raisi met its president Ilham Aliyev, hours before the fatal helicopter crash.

On Feb. 9, the late foreign minister was in Beirut to show the Islamic Republic's support for Iran-backed Hezbollah, saying Lebanon's security affects Iran and the greater region. He was also welcomed by Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

On Feb. 13, Amir-Abdollahian met with the Hamas leader in Doha, Qatar, and reaffirmed Iran's support.

Despite Iran's denial of involvement in the October 7 massacre that killed nearly 1,200 mostly civilians, Tehran continued its public meetings with the leaders of these proxy groups.

Iran supports Hamas with $1 billion a year. The Islamic Republic also supports Palestinian Islamic Jihad with tens of millions and is providing Hezbollah with 70 percent of its budget, Sarit Zehavi from Alma Research Center said in a previous interview with Iran International.

Sabti said Amir-Abdollahian was successful at meeting with Middle Eastern countries that normalized relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords, willing to put aside ideology he said, for the sake of "destroying the relations between Israel and other countries."

"They put the ideology aside, and I don't know how Iran regime somehow convinced Taliban and Hamas, both of whom are Sunnis and from the Islamic Brotherhood. But somehow they all gathered around the same interests and they put the ideology aside," said Sabti.

He believes Wednesday's meeting between Iran and its proxies was a check-in on how to "continue Amir-Abdollahian's role and also to show them that the Iran regime is behind them. They will support them no matter that Amir-Abdollahian is there or not."

Selsky: A wake up call to the West

If a picture is worth a thousand words, the photo of Iran with its terror proxies, showed "how close they all are," said Alex Selsky, an advisor to the Middle East Forum and former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Selsky said the meeting shows the Iran-backed terror groups are "the soldiers of this [Iran] regime."

"They all came to show their loyalty and to mourn together with the ‘family’. So it just shows us how close all of them are," said Selsky.

Selsky said the photo should be a “wake-up call to the West.”

"I don't remember if we ever saw such a picture that shows visually that it's all one desk. It's all one headquarter. It's all one mission," he said.

"That proves, again and again, to the West...to the world. That's when they want to fight economic terror by Houthis. Or the terror by Hezbollah or Hamas. Who is the head? Who is the one that sends and gives the orders? And who is the one to be targeted? And if the West still doesn't understand it....yesterday is already late," said Selsky, referring to Iran as the head who executes all the orders and finances its proxies.

Selsky, an expert in the Middle East, believes the fatal chopper crash, whatever the cause, reflects poorly on the Islamic Republic and has likely impacted how much confidence its proxies have in their so-called "boss."

"I'm sure that many of the proxies look at their ‘boss’ right now and feel kind of disappointment."

"Any explanation to this accident," he said, "is bad for them [Iran]. Because if it was assassination by whoever did it, it shows the weakness. If the assassination comes from outside, it shows the weakness. If the assassination comes from inside, it shows the weakness and the splits and the rivalry within. If it was just an accident, it shows the weakness. Like they want to fight America and Israel? And they don't know to how to operate an old, small helicopter."

Iran's military chief of staff has ordered a probe into the cause of the helicopter crash, according to the ISNA news agency. However, a cause has yet to be determined.

Abdulkadir Uraloglu, Minister of Transport and Infrastructure, told CNN Turk TV that the Turkish drone Akinci found the wreckage, as the time and place of the Iranian-announced discovery corresponds to when and where the drone located it.

A helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi and seven others, including foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian crashed near the border with Azerbaijan on Sunday, killing everyone on board.

Uraloglu said Iranian authorities contacted them for help but did not initially mention that the issue concerned Raisi. The Turkish official said they “successfully did what was asked of” them. “As neighbors, we rushed to help the country that requested assistance, and we did so completely and correctly.”

On Wednesday, the General Staff of Iran's Armed Forces played down the significance of the Turkish drone's involvement in locating the crash site, emphasizing the effectiveness of its drones instead as the issue became one of humiliation for the regime, currently blamed for a delayed and ineffective response to the crash of its president.

Iran's military stated that despite Turkey deploying a drone with advanced technology, adverse weather conditions hindered its effectiveness in locating the crash site.

Iran's own advanced drones were inaccessible in the Indian Ocean at the time but were recalled and ultimately located the crash site where the bodies of the president, foreign minister and other officials were recovered, the Iranian military statement said.

Earlier this week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also emphasized that the Akinci drone was dispatched at the Iranian government's behest. Erdogan highlighted the drone's resilience in adverse weather and detailed its extensive search efforts, which covered 2,100 kilometers over seven and a half hours.

Reports from Turkish media stated that following the Turkish drone's identification of the helicopter wreckage and heat signatures indicative of the crash site in Iran’s East Azerbaijan Province, Iranian search teams successfully located the downed helicopter and the bodies of Raisi and others in the mountainous area.

Turkish Anadolu news agency also broadcasted a live operation of the Turkish drone which was watched by over 2.5 million people tracking the operational data and flight path live. As it returned to the base, Akinci drew a crescent and a star in the shape of Turkey's flag.

Despite data from the Turkish drone corroborated by some Iranian news outlets, Pir Hossein Kolivand, head of the Iranian Red Crescent Society, dismissed claims of foreign assistance as mere speculation. Kolivand emphasized the Iranian team's perseverance through challenging conditions, asserting that their drone led them to the exact crash site within 40 minutes of locating the wreckage at an altitude of 2,500 meters.

In a sign of potentially souring relations as a result of the Iranian snub, Turkish media reported on Wednesday that President Erdogan would travel to Iran on Thursday for Raisi’s funeral. However, the Turkish government’s Directorate of Communications Center for Countering Disinformation dismissed these reports, stating that Erdogan has no plans to visit Iran in the near future.

Both Iran and Turkey have a large drone arsenal, a major export for both nations. Iran has been accused by Western powers of providing drones to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

As of mid-2022, Iran has supplied Russia with a substantial number of kamikaze Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), which are being used to target civilian infrastructure and cities. Also, drones have been incorporated into large-scale missile attacks, overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses. Turkish drones have also been used by Azerbaijan in the years-long conflict against Armenia, in addition to Ankara’s NATO allies in Europe, Arab countries in the Gulf and North Africa, and sub-Saharan African countries.

This incident has brought to light the profoundly insensitive reactions from Western leaders, particularly the United States. The Biden administration's rush to express condolences for the death of Raisi—an individual known as the "Butcher of Tehran" for his role in the mass execution of over 4,000 political prisoners in the 1980s—was deeply traumatic and insulting to Iranians.

In a surprising and unprecedented move, the US State Department issued an official statement expressing condolences for the deaths of Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and other members of their delegation in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran. At the United Nations, US Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood was seen standing during a moment of silence held for Raisi, further adding to the distress.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby attempted to justify the administration’s response, describing it as a "typical practice" following the death of a world leader. This defense, however, prompts a critical question: Would the United States feel obliged to offer similar condolences for the deaths of notorious figures like Bashar al-Assad or Vladimir Putin? In the past, the U.S. has refrained from such gestures towards leaders like Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, or even Hugo Chavez, who were also responsible for egregious human rights violations.

Even in a similar case concerning Iran, when Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic Revolution, passed away, the White House did not directly offer condolences. Instead, it expressed hope that "With his passing, Iran would now move toward assuming a responsible role in the international community."

Upon the death of Kim Jong Il in 2011, the White House did not offer condolences but reaffirmed its "commitment to stability on the Korean peninsula, and to the freedom and security of our allies." While there are instances where the US did offer condolences, such as in the case of Hafez Assad in 2000, the practice of offering condolences is selective and far from typical. The response largely depends on the complexity of the relationship and the diplomatic agenda of the US. However, the issue with Iran is even more complicated. Unlike other cases, there is no formal relationship between the two countries, and more importantly, the Islamic Republic considers America the great Satan, actively chants "Death to America," and threatens American interests.

Perhaps a more significant difference is that at the time of Raisi's death, there has been an active democracy-seeking movement in Iran for at least six years, and an ongoing conflict between the Iranian people and the regime, which was not the case in other scenarios. Therefore, this inconsistency and selective sympathy reveal a troubling moral lapse, an inability to clearly distinguish between good and evil, and a strategy of appeasement designed to curry favor with the Iranian regime for future diplomatic negotiations. The recent meeting of American officials with the regime in Oman only adds to these suspicions.

Even more shocking was the prayer offered by Senate Chaplain Barry Black for "the people of Iran who are mourning the death of Raisi," implying that the Iranian public grieves for a leader who spent 40 years issuing death sentences and suppressing dissent. This comes after videos circulating on social media showed Iranians bravely celebrating with fireworks, passing out sweets, and sharing pictures of themselves toasting drinks or dancing. In response to the wave of celebrations, Mohammad Movahedi Azad, the regime’s Attorney General, issued a directive threatening social media users with "swift, effective, and deterrent action."

Such messages are not only tone-deaf but also demonstrate a profound ignorance of the political realities in Iran and the aspirations of its people. The Biden administration’s reaction represents a severe moral backslide compared to that of his peers in the Democratic Party. When Pol Pot, the leader of the Khmer Rouge, died, President Bill Clinton not only refrained from expressing condolences but also used the occasion to call for justice for the victims and accountability for his accomplices.

For the past six years, Iranians have repeatedly taken to the streets, most notably in November 2019, which led to the deaths of 1,500 protesters, and during the nationwide uprising of 2022 known as the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, crying for freedom. Brave Iranian women have challenged a regime that has even worn-down great powers. The memory of Nika Shakarami, a 16-year-old protester who fought for her life, or Majidreza Rahnavard, who was hanged from a crane, should have reminded Western leaders to honor these struggles rather than sympathize with their oppressors.

This episode is especially demoralizing for President Biden, who rhetorically promised to bring human rights back to the forefront of US foreign policy and to restore America's global leadership. Instead, his administration's actions have further traumatized the oppressed Iranian society. The Biden administration’s response to Raisi's death reflects a profound moral failure and a disregard for the suffering of the Iranian people. The West must recognize the aspirations of those fighting for freedom and refrain from actions that inadvertently legitimize their oppressors.

The revelations were made during a dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa opening the door to ties in the wake of both United Arab Emirates and Saudi's thawing tensions.

Tiny but geopolitically significant Bahrain, hosting the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, has repeatedly accused Iran of destabilizing efforts by fueling dissent among its Shi'ite population against the ruling Sunni monarchy. The 2011 protests, a part of the broader Arab Spring movement, were suppressed by the government, with Iran being partly blamed for the upheaval—a charge Iran has consistently denied.

The kingdom has a long-standing alignment with US and UK interests, notably highlighted by its sole Persian Gulf state endorsement of the strikes against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen following their Red Sea confrontations earlier this year.

The recent thaw in relations was marked by an Iranian parliamentary delegation's visit to Bahrain last year for the International Inter-Parliamentary Union Assembly, the first official Iranian presence in Bahrain in seven years after Manama’s severance of ties with Tehran in 2015, closely mirroring Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic break-off.

The tentative diplomatic rapprochement comes on the heels of a landmark agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, brokered by China last year, which ended a seven-year standoff by agreeing to reopen embassies and diplomatic missions.

In the previous year, ties had also mended between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, known as the region's 'little Sparta' for the power it wields relative to its size.