Havel Prize Awarded to Dissident Iranian Rapper Toomaj Salehi

Initial speculations about his arrest surfaced when his brother, Abbas Shanbehzadeh, shared concerns on X regarding Hossein's possible detention, which was later confirmed by Hossein himself during a call. 

Shanbehzadeh's X account also became inaccessible, likely deactivated to prevent misuse by security agencies. Nevertheless, his name dominated Persian-language X trends for hours, with users highlighting his wide-ranging influence and fearless commentary.

Shanbehzadeh, who posted a dot in response to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's tweet last month, employing a sarcastic editorial tone, saw his comment receive considerably more likes than Khamenei's original tweet.

Conversely, some cited Shanbehzadeh's criticisms, including an exposé on Evin Prison's harsh practices, suggesting his arrest stems from governmental ire towards his outspokenness.

In response to his arrest, numerous users voiced their outrage, linking it to a comment he made under an official post by Ali Khamenei last month, which gained significant traction.

Shanbehzadeh was previously imprisoned in connection with the 2019 protests, facing charges of "insulting the sanctities and the leader of the Islamic Republic."

Last week, the IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, said the watchdog had lost track of Iran’s production and inventory of centrifuges and related components, as Tehran has limited access to the inspectors.

On Tuesday, the US delivered a strongly-worded statement to the IAEA, effectively opening the door to a censuring resolution at the upcoming quarterly IAEA Board of Governors meeting. 

“Iran refused a deal when it was possible, continued with activities that negated the chance for that deal,” US ambassador to the IAEA Laura S.H. Holgate said Tuesday. “The idea that the remaining issues could be resolved within a few days, when Iran’s nuclear program has, and continues to, significantly expand... and when Iran’s cooperation with the Agency has reached new lows, is absurd.”

This was perhaps the clearest indication to date that the Biden administration may have lost patience with the “tired and transparent gambit” of the Iranian rulers. And a few hours later, came another indication –this time from the State Department spokesman, Matthew Miller.

“Should there be a resolution,” he told reporters who asked about the US position, “you should not expect us to act in any sort of disharmony with our E3 partners. We prize our unity with them, and I expect that to continue.”

In the past few weeks, unofficial reports have pointed to a US-E3 disagreement, with the Biden administration trying to dissuade France, Germany, and the UK from censuring Iran at the IAEA’s board meeting, fearing, perhaps, that it could lead to more hostility and further complicate the relationship with those in power in Tehran, as well as the situation in the broader Middle East.

The statements on Tuesday, however, put to rest the notion of a US-E3 disagreement, suggesting instead that a censuring resolution may be imminent.

Earlier Tuesday, the E3 said in a joint statement that Iran has chosen to escalate and to expand its nuclear program to alarming levels, calling on the Islamic Republic to halt its escalation. “Much of Iran’s nuclear program is unprecedented for a state without a nuclear weapons program," they warned.

This was echoed by the US ambassador shortly after, referring to Iran’s growing stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium. “There is no credible, civilian justification for Iran to amass a stock of highly enriched uranium and these actions run counter to the behavior of all other non-nuclear weapons states party to the NPT,” said Ambassador Holgate.

“Twice in 2022 viable deals were put on the table after great political effort,” she added. “On both occasions, Iran responded to these deals with unacceptable demands beyond the scope of the JCPOA.”

Iran limited its cooperation with the IAEA and expanded its enrichment program after President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. President Biden set it as a priority ‘from day one’ to revive that deal or craft a new agreement. The plan was to dull the nuclear ambitions of the Islamic Republic, but it only sharpened the criticism of the Biden administration –from the Republicans in the Congress, in particular.

“Iran is closer than ever to having nuclear weapons,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) posted on X Tuesday, “that's why @SenatorTimScott and I have introduced a resolution calling on the Biden Administration to censure Iran at this week's IAEA meeting.”

Iran Rejects Latest IAEA Report, Branding It 'Unreliable'

Iran, meanwhile, has dismissed a recent IAEA report regarding its nuclear activities as "unreliable."

In that report to the IAEA Board of Governors, Director General Grossi stated that there has been no progress in resolving the safeguards issues with Iran.

In a statement it labeled the latest report as "based on unreliable information and unauthentic documents," dismissing allegations of an undeclared site in Turquzabad as a mere "industrial scraps storage."

The tension over undisclosed locations began with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's remarks during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2018.

Netanyahu pointed to the location in Turquzabad, southwest of Tehran, saying that Iran has a secret warehouse for nuclear materials and equipment in this area, holding up to 300 tons of nuclear equipment and material. Iranian officials dismissed Netanyahu's claims, stating that the location mentioned is just a simple “rug cleaning” business.

The Iranian officials refuted any involvement in nuclear activities at the site, despite previous reports of nuclear materials being moved with containers from the location.

Grossi claimed in his recent report to the Board of Governors that no progress has been made in resolving non-compliance issues with Iran and criticized Iran for failing to provide “technically credible explanations for the presence of uranium particles of anthropogenic origin” in Turquzabad and a second site in Varamin.

The IAEA's repeated requests for explanations about the presence of uranium particles at the two sites have gone unanswered for years.

Previous administrations, including those of Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami, have achieved some advancements in foreign policy, suggesting a slight potential for change in this area.

During Rouhani's tenure, Supreme Leader Khamenei demonstrated flexibility by agreeing to the JCPOA. Similarly, during Khatami’s era (1997-2005), his de-escalation policy resulted in a reduction of the regime's terror activities in Europe, a move that Khamenei did not oppose.

Although elections in Iran are widely known to be engineered, some still speculate whether the next presidential administration might create an opportunity for change in foreign policy and revitalize the stagnant nuclear negotiations.

Several candidates who have registered for the election have addressed this issue, presenting foreign policy stances that differ somewhat from those of President Raisi and his hard-line Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who also died in the May 19 helicopter crash.

Ali Larijani, a close associate of Rouhani's previous administration and the Parliamentary Speaker who approved the JCPOA in just 20 minutes, has expressed the need for a shift in Iran's foreign policy direction. Should he be able to pass the Guardian Council's “filtering process”, he may be able to expedite negotiations and reduce tensions between the Biden administration and Tehran.

When Larijani registered for the presidential election, he stated that "to cross the obstacles, we have to rise above the outdated methods." Kayhan, the most hardline newspaper in Tehran, interpreted this as a critique of the Raisi administration's foreign policy. In response, Kayhan criticized the JCPOA and the influence of the US and UK, calling the agreement and the process of aligning with it "the height of humiliation; the lowest height." While Larijani was advocating for a new approach to foreign policy, Kayhan defended the current administration's hardline stance and dismissed any return to the JCPOA as degrading.

The other candidate in the upcoming election, Saeed Jalili, has previously confronted Ali Larijani over nuclear negotiations. Unofficial reports from a 2022 special meeting of the Expediency Council, which have not been denied, indicate that Jalili proposed Iran's withdrawal from the NPT. This proposal was opposed by Ali Larijani, Sadegh Larijani, and Ali Shamkhani.

Recently, nuclear negotiations have reportedly been entrusted to Ali Shamkhani, based on unofficial reports that have not been refuted. This would suggest that Saeed Jalili is not a suitable candidate to advance the state of Iran’s current foreign policy.

Should Ali Khamenei seek to continue negotiations with the 5+1, albeit not in the same manner as Saeed Jalili during his tenure as Secretary of the National Security Council, it could enhance the likelihood of Ali Larijani's qualification being confirmed by the Guardian Council. This development could also affect the council's credibility, considering its prior rejection of Larijani's candidacy in 2021. Such scenarios underscore the intricate interplay between foreign policy and domestic politics.

Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has also registered to run again. Given his prior disqualifications, however, it is likely that the Guardian Council will disqualify him once more – rendering any shifts in his previous stances less impactful. Historically, Ahmadinejad opposed negotiations aimed at a nuclear deal with the United States, which led to his exclusion from discussions held by Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, with American officials in Oman in 2012.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who registered as a presidential candidate shortly after assuming the position of Speaker of the Parliament, has made numerous statements about the nuclear negotiations and the JCPOA that are inconsistent and unclear. Therefore, it is unlikely that his administration would bring about significant changes in Iran's nuclear policy.

For instance, After the Majles' general approval of the "Strategic Action to Cancel Sanctions and Protect the Interests of the Iranian Nation" Act, he stated, "The parliament gave this message to the enemies of Islamic Iran that the one-sided game is over.” However, he later changed his position, saying, "Every fair person considers the success of the diplomatic system as the basis of the country's pride," following the approval of the JCPOA.

When Es'haq Jahangiri registered as a presidential candidate, he promised to lift the sanctions on Iran. Achieving that goal, however, would require accelerating nuclear negotiations.

Jahangiri's preferred policy approach was similar to that of former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and President Rouhani during the first and second years of Biden's presidency, which aimed at engaging in diplomatic efforts to ease sanctions. Despite their efforts, this approach faced strong opposition from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and ultimately did not succeed in lifting the sanctions or achieving significant results.

Regarding Iran’s now-deceased President Ebrahim Raisi, the Supreme Leader’s decision in 2021 was straightforward: Raisi was a loyal follower whose allegiance was unquestioned. That confidence led to the ultimate disqualification of several other presidential candidates, ensuring Raisi's selection.

In the current political landscape, Khamenei confronts a more intricate scenario in selecting the next suitable president. He can no longer simply support a single, loyal candidate without risking significant pushback or future complications.

Reports in Iranian media emphasized that discussions were about the war in Gaza and “putting an end to Israeli crimes.”

Bagheri-Kani travelled to Syria after meetings in Beirut on Monday, his first trip abroad since becoming Iran's acting top diplomat following the deaths of his predecessor and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.

He also met Palestinian factions at the Iranian embassy in Damascus, as his predecessor had. There are no details about what was discussed in the meeting. Iran backs Palestinian armed groups including Hamas, which launched the October 7 attack on Israeli territory that triggered the Gaza conflict. The Iranian government immediately launched celebration on October 7 and has vowed to continue providing support to Hamas.

At a joint press conference alongside Mekdad, Bagheri-Kani said the pair had discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the delivery of humanitarian aid without conditions. Iranian media said that the chief diplomat also emphasized the importance of strengthening the “strategic relations” between the two countries.

Syria’s Mekdad rejected reports about problems in the bilateral relations, calling such statements “Claims, delusions, or the wishes of some people.”

Bagheri-Kani was then received by Assad on Tuesday afternoon to discuss bilateral ties between the two close allies and "developments in the occupied Palestinian territories", according to Assad's office.

One day before Bagher-Kani’s visit to Damascus, Iranian government media reported that a Revolutionary Guard "advisor", Saeed (Saeid) Abyar was killed in an Israeli air strike near Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria early Monday.

At least since 2017, Israel has regularly bombed Iran-related targets in Syria to prevent weapons transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the expansion of Iranian bases in Syria.

A devastating air strike on April 1 flattened a building in the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, where two senior Revolutionary Guard generals and five other officers died. Reportedly, these individuals were involved in operations aimed at intensifying attacks on Israel. This led to a massive Iranian missile and drone retaliatory attack against Israel on April 13, which inflicted minimal damage. Most projectiles were shot down.

In his day-long visit to Beirut, Bagheri-Kani met his Lebanese counterpart, other Lebanese officials and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of powerful armed group Hezbollah which is the spearhead of Iran's network in the region.

Assad met Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on May 30 to offer condolences for the death of Raisi.

“Even though the approval of those qualified has not yet been announced, it appears to be the first time since 1981 that clerics have entirely withdrawn from this area,” Abdi wrote on X on Tuesday.

The political analyst surmised that the reason might be that the clerics “are not hopeful of being voted president” but nevertheless “hold crucial positions” in the state and five of eight former presidents of Iran were clerics.

A total of 80 candidates have allegedly registered for the presidential elections following President Ebrahim Raisi's unexpected death in a helicopter crash last month. While among them are a few clerics, namely Mostafa Pourmohammadi, former interior minister and justice minister in two different administrations, Ahmad Akbari, former MP, and Mohammad Reza Mirtajodini, former vice president to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, none are seen as the main competitors for the presidential role.

According to KhabarOnline, more than 70% of the registered candidates are current or former lawmakers.

After a week, the Guardian Council will announce the approved candidates, with the election scheduled for June 28. Candidates who have been approved will have the opportunity to campaign in the two weeks before the election. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, a run-off election will be held on July 5.

Some of the most notable conservative candidates are hardline politician Saeid Jalili, conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and the more "moderate" conservative Ali Larijani.

On the reformist and moderate side, Es’haq Jahangiri, former Vice President in Hassan Rouhani's administration, and Abdolnasser Hemmati, a former Central Bank of Iran governor, are among the leading contenders.