Khamenei pins hope on new government to deflect foreign pressures
Behrouz Turani
Iran International
With a new president nearly in office in Tehran, there is much speculation about the direction of the new Iranian government's foreign policy.
Iran International
With a new president nearly in office in Tehran, there is much speculation about the direction of the new Iranian government's foreign policy.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is widely believed to have the final say on foreign policy and other matters in Iran, has assured domestic and foreign audiences that no change is likely to take place in Iran's foreign policy with the change of president. However, the specter of Trump’s re-election is not a pleasant prospect for Khamenei and the veneer of a more “moderate” government might be one of the few effective tools he can employ to deflect more sanctions and pressures.
Nonetheless, to respond to the demands of the nation whose patience is running thin in the face of serious and long-standing economic problems, the new president has vowed to do whatever in his power to improve the country's relations with the outside world in a bid to have the paralyzing US and other international sanctions on Iran lifted.
The most severe sanctions on Iran were imposed following the 2018 US withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal. These sanctions have significantly impacted Iran's oil sales and international banking. As a result, Tehran's ability to sell oil on international markets has been restricted, and it faces challenges in repatriating the proceeds, having to sell the oil at discounted prices almost exclusively to China.
It remains unclear who will be the country's new foreign minister. Traditionally, however, Iran’s so-called moderate governments have relied on disagreements between the United States and Europe, leveraging divisions to weaken a united front against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and its regional interventions.
Some of the latest reports from Tehran indicate that the new government is keen to follow an approach of less tensions with West. For instance, a report in proreform Fararu website says that Iran's new government, which has not been officially formed yet, is likely to review the country's domestic and foreign policies.
However, this does not seem to be so easy, as the new President Masoud Pezeshkian's fundamentalist rival Saeed Jalili has threatened that “revolutionary forces” will not allow the government to make any compromise on ideological values.
Fararu reminded that hardliners who oppose better ties with the West have lost the election, but they have not lost political power. This serious challenge, according to the website will affect every decision to be made by the new government.
The new government will inevitably face several challenges, including securing approval for its cabinet ministers from the hardliner-dominated parliament. Some observers note that Pezeshkian has friendly ties with Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. However, the key question is whether Ghalibaf can influence the hardliners in parliament. The answer to this will determine how easy or difficult it will be for Pezeshkian's cabinet ministers to win a vote of confidence from the Majles.
Putting foreign policy on the right track is the next challenge. The unknown factor is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s plan. Does he want a meaningful change or just a façade of a “reformist” government? Then comes Pezeshkian’s task of dealing with hardliners if he ends up trying to make any concessions to the United States.
The next challenge will be striking a balance between relations with and dependency on the East and the West. Radicals in Iran refuse to accept that even China and Russia must engage with the United States and Europe as both trade partners and political rivals. People like Jalili have often been more anti-West than even Russia and China.
Leaving behind these challenges is not easy considering the weight and might of hardliners' media fleet led by the state radio and television and the backing of the Revolutionary Guard.
However, Pezeshkian may have a counterbalance that could silence the hardliners: potential support from Khamenei. Iranians will see within a few months if this backing materializes. Even if it does, Pezeshkian might abandon his promise to end the crackdown on women who defy the compulsory hijab. This is an area where Khamenei is likely to allow the radicals free rein, assuring them that they are not entirely marginalized.
In 2023, Iran shot at 507 Kurdish people carrying goods from Iraq, and 44 of them were killed, according to human rights organization United for Iran, and since the start of this year 111 Kurds have been shot at the border for that same reason.
The Kurdish border couriers, known in Kurdish and Farsi as Kolbars, have limited access to justice, said Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, the director of Norway-based Iran Human rights.
"When the guards see them, they shoot at them. We hear about people who have been killed, but there are also people who have lost their limbs. They get paralyzed because of spinal cord injury,” said Amiry-Moghaddam.
Many of them are boys as young as 13, but others are highly educated men and women, and some as old as 77 years of age, who rely on carrying a heavy load of goods through dangerous, mountainous terrain as a means of survival, said Shaghayegh Norouzi from United for Iran.
“You can find doctors that they are just finished their education and they came back from Tehran and they cannot work in Kurdistan,” Norouzi told Iran International.
The Kolbars typically bypass customs to earn payment based on weight and the type of good they are transporting. They often carry loads between 55 and 110 pounds through mountainous terrain for upwards of 10 kilometres, according to reports.
Items are up for resale once it makes its way through border with goods ranging from tea, electronics, textiles, beauty products, and cigarettes. Alcohol is usually avoided as it involves harsher punishment.
Ethnic pressures
Taimoor Aliassi, the Executive Director and UN Representative of the Kurdistan Human Rights-Geneva (KMMK-G) called the shootings “extrajudicial executions” that reflect a “systemic” targeting of one Iran’s most marginalized ethnic groups.
“People have a right to food, right to work, a right to health, right to life,” said Aliassi.
He told Iran International the shootings of Kolbars has been happening for two decades and poverty is the main force driving them to this work.
According to official figures around 20 million landmines have been planted in the Kurdish region of Iran since the war with Iraq in the 1980s, which has made the land unsuitable for farming and created lethal conditions to walk through, said Aliassi.
"We have a lot of people living in the area who cannot work on their land. And then, there's no invest investment, and development projects in the region” he added.
Human Rights Watch (HRW) published a report on the increase in Iran’s security forces shooting Kolbars. HRW interviewed 13 Kurdish border couriers between October 2021 and April 2024, who survived and or witnessed the shootings.
Witnesses told HRW that Iran’s FARAJA Border Guard force and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) carried out the attacks on border couriers.
According to the Monday’s report, six people told the human rights group that Iranian security forces aimed at them and shot them, and that they had seen others shot. Two others told them that Iranian security forces shot and killed their relatives who worked as border couriers. One lost a leg after stepping on a landmine.
HRW reviewed medical records and court documents.
A security issue
HRW said in its repot that Iran’s deceased president who died May 19 in a helicopter crash, Ebrahim Raisi, suggested to Kurdish communities to consider regulating Kurdish border couriers work, yet officials in Iran often deem it a security issue.
Kurdish political prisoner, Mohiyedin Ebrahimi was a Kolbar who was executed in Iran on March 17 2023 on security charges. He was arrested in 2017 after being caught carrying alcohol through the border.
"I support twelve people in my family in Oshnavieh and have been working as a kolbar (human mules who carry goods across border) for several years,” he wrote in a letter published on Iran Human Rights website.
“On 17 November 2017, I was crossing the border from the Kurdistan region in Iraq with two horses and four carts in the dark of the night. Several other people were walking a few hundred meters ahead of me when border forces started shooting at them and they started running. The border forces shot at me as well and hit me on the leg, causing great injury. Two horses and four cartons of alcoholic beer were discovered and confiscated from me and I had to be transferred to the hospital,” he wrote in the letter.
He was officially sentenced to death on charges of baghy (armed rebellion) through membership of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran.
Amiry-Moghaddam of Iran human rights cited another similar case.
On June 9, 2024, Edris Ali, also a Kurdish Kolbar was sentenced to death on “trumped up” charges of “espionage for Israel” said Amiry-Moghaddam based on confessions “extracted under torture.”
He said “his only crime was to smuggle alcoholic drinks as a Kolbar.”
For 10 dollars
Amiry-Moghaddam said Tehran is also targeting people carrying goods from Baluchistan, and that the targeting of ethnic minorities like Kurds and Baloch is a means of controlling and persecuting them.
“It’s indicative of a regime that doesn't value human lives and wants to create fear,” he said.
Aliassi of KMMK-G said in addition to gender and religious apartheid, Iran is also committing ethnic apartheid.
Aliassi said between 84 to 160 thousand people do work as a Kolbar on a daily basis, citing Iranian data.
"10 dollars" is what Kurdish border couriers get for transporting a heavy load through snow and cold weather, with the possibility of getting killed, injured or jailed, said Aliassi.
The inauguration of new presidents in the Islamic Republic typically occurs in early August, although no specific date is set. However, since there is currently no incumbent in office, there is some debate about when the new administration will officially begin.
The only timeframe that applies in case of the death of a president is 50 days until a new one should be elected. Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19, and the election was held on June 28 and the runoff on July 5.
There are several steps until the president-elect can be called Iran’s President.
After the election, the Guardian Council should confirm the validity of the results, ensuring that the election process followed legal precepts. Then, it issues a certificate of appointment for the president-elect. This document should be signed by the members of the Council and then sent to the Supreme Leader, who would announce the date for Tanfiz, when he officially endorses the election results and ratifies the new president. It is followed by Tahlif, or the swearing-in ceremony, which usually happens within a few days.
During the Tanfiz, Ali Khamenei hands over a decree, known as the "decree of confirmation" or "decree of validation", to the president-elect, formally recognizing him as the legitimate president. Without the Supreme Leader's approval, the president does not have the authority to assume office. During Tahlif, the newly elected president takes an oath before the Parliament (Majlis) in the presence of the head of the judiciary and the members of the Guardian Council, promising to uphold the constitution and faithfully execute his duties as the head of state. Both ceremonies are essential in the transition of presidential power, ensuring both legal and symbolic legitimacy for the incoming president.
Mojtaba Yousefi, a member of the parliament's presiding board, said this week the inauguration ceremony for Pezeshkian is scheduled for August 4 or 5. The president will then have 15 days to present his proposed ministers to the parliament for a vote of confidence, which is reportedly set to be held on September 5.
There is controversy about why the parliament, dominated by hardliners whose candidates lost to Pezeshkian, would not vote on the proposed cabinet sooner, given that fact that the country does not have a president and is run by interim Mohammad Mokhber, Raisi’s first vice president.
According to Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, the former spokesman of the Guardian Council, until the new government assumes office, members of the former cabinet can make decisions or appointments that could have financial implications for the next government.
This comes despite Mokhber’s directive in June that called on all executive bodies to “refrain from any changes to organizational structures, personnel reassignments, transfer of government property, implementation of new regulations, changes in tariffs and fees, and any actions outside the rules and regulations until the establishment of the fourteenth government.”
However, Kadkhodaei noted that unless there is a specific legal provision that states otherwise, the incumbent officials can make such decisions, implying that Mokhber’s directive may not be binding. “These are customary practices and have never been subject to legal debate,” he said.
Hossein Mirmohammad Sadeghi, a former lawmaker, said that there is no regulation for setting a date for the vote of confidence on the new cabinet, explaining that such dates are primarily based on considerations of different factors. These include the parliament's summer recess ending on July 21st and upcoming calendar events, like the observance of the Shiite mourning period, Ashura, on July 14th in Iran.
Hamid Aboutalebi, a former deputy chief of staff for political affairs of the office of Iran’s president under Hassan Rouhani, wrote a commentary on his X account on Monday, stressing the legal necessity of holding the endorsement ceremony as soon as possible. He said the president-elect should assume office by the 50th day after the death of the incumbent. He argued that according to the constitution, until the new government is formed, the parliament cannot impeach ministers or pass a vote of no confidence, leaving the body with no oversight capability in case of negligence or errors by the ministers.
Aboutalebi said this would present a serious constitutional challenge if the country would be without an incumbent president at the end of the 50-day period and would be governed by an unelected first vice president, with ministers who are not subject to parliamentary oversight.