Iran International
A deadly drone attack in Tel Aviv by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis marks a dangerous escalation, representing a broader conflict between Iran and the West, according to a prominent Middle East expert.
One person was killed and at least ten people injured in the drone attack, which happened around 3 a.m. local time Friday.
Evidence from the aftermath shows it was an Iranian-made drone Samad- 3 model sent by Houthi rebels that struck very close to the US consulate, which was the site of the former US Embassy in Tel Aviv.
Until Friday, Houthi drones or missiles directed at Israel had all been intercepted. Israel's military is investigating why it missed the drone. However, the Houthis have seriously disrupted international commercial shipping in the Red Sea by attacking cargo ships and tankers since November. The US and Britain have retaliated several times against Houthi military targets without deterring the Iran-backed militia ruling over more than half of Yemen.
Alex Selsky, an advisor to the Middle East Forum, said the explosion proves that this is not a war between Israel and Iran's proxies, but rather a broader conflict that is being fought in Israel. He said Israel is a symbol of the United States and the West in the Middle East, and pays a price for it.
"It proves again and again that it's not only about Gaza, it's not only about Lebanon, and it's not only about Israel. It's about the United States and the West. Because no such attack can be executed without minimum coordination, maximum instruction from Iran. And no such thing can be done without Iran being backed by its biggest allies: Russia and China," said Selsky.
Selsky, who was also a former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said the timing of the attack and location are significant.
The strike happened just as former President Donald Trump, gave his keynote address at the fourth and final night of the Republican National Convention (RNC) Thursday evening in Milwaukee just five days after an assassination attempt that could have ended his life. Then the drone attack taking place near the US consulate in Tel Aviv.
Selsky said ultimately no one knows for sure if that was all intentional but when you connect the dots a pattern does appear.
Beni Sabti, an expert on Iran from the Israeli National Security and Strategy Institute (INSS) said the drone attack in Tel Aviv exposes a weakness in Israeli defensive strategy policy, that may embolden its adversaries if action isn't taken.
The cornerstone of Israel's national security strategy is its 'defensive strategy,' reflecting its preference to manage conflicts as much as possible.
"It's the time that Israel has to show itself and its capabilities and its quality," Sabti told Iran International.
He made an analogy to a soccer match, saying you can't always be on the defense when you're playing, you have to also attack to win the game.
"You cannot only defend. You have to go to the source to neutralize it, even if it's in Yemen. If you don't want to deal directly with Iran, then we need to deal with the shooter. If we don't go to the head, we have to deal with the fingers or the hands that are doing it," he said.
In April Iran launched a massive barrage of 350 missiles and drone at Israel. Israeli air defenses and allies warplanes shot down 99% of the projectiles, but it was the first time that the Islamic government in Iran dared to directly target Israel. There was a limited Israeli retaliation against one target in Iran and since then no escalation took place.
The IDF posted to X on Friday "regardless of who pulls the trigger, we know who is the loading the gun."
Israeli officials are hinting of a possible response on Yemeni territory with a retaliatory attack under consideration, according to the Jerusalem Post.
An official comment has not been made yet by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari posted to X addressing the latest attack.
“We are fighting a multi front war. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the militias in Iraq and Syria, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, all the Iranian proxies, and Iran itself.”
A spokesperson for the Houthis, Yahya Saree, said they would continue to attack Israel, according to Reuters.
There are fears of wider regional conflict with Israel exchanging daily missiles and artillery fire from Hezbollah since the war in Gaza.
What happened globally?
A global IT outage hit various industries, including airlines, hospitals, retailers, and other businesses. Nearly 1,400 flights were canceled on Friday, and essential banking, healthcare, and retail services were also affected.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and X, has described Friday’s incident as the "biggest IT failure in history."
What caused the crisis?
Two significant issues involving Microsoft's widely used cloud systems have occurred in quick succession. First, an outage affected Microsoft clients using the Azure cloud service. Second, Windows devices experienced problems shortly after due to an update from CrowdStrike's Falcon antivirus software, designed to protect against malicious attacks.
Microsoft said it has addressed the root cause, but some services still face residual issues. Despite the fix, cyber-security experts warn that restoring full functionality will require significant effort.
Why is Iran unaffected by this global crisis?
Iran is unaffected by the global IT outage mainly because it uses a different system to control, monitor, and analyze industrial devices and processes.
Iran relies on SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems, which are crucial for managing infrastructure like power grids, water treatment facilities, and the petroleum industry, Sahar Tahvili, an AI researcher, told Iran International.
What exactly is SCADA, and how does it differ from a cloud system?
SCADA focuses on the local, real-time control and monitoring of physical systems. It operates within a limited connectivity framework, typically confined to a local or regional network, processing data in a central computer system to manage and optimize operations. Tahvili, the co-author of “Artificial Intelligence Methods for Optimization of the Software Testing Process,” told Iran International.
Conversely, a cloud system emphasizes remote access, extensive data storage, and powerful computing capabilities over the Internet. It easily scales to handle large volumes of data and users, providing broad connectivity and resource flexibility that extends beyond the constraints of local networks.
But why is Iran using a different system?
According to Tahvili, Iran relies on SCADA systems for industrial and facility-based processes primarily due to international sanctions and the lack of advanced infrastructure and technology management options.
Do other countries utilize SCADA systems?
Other countries might use SCADA mostly for managing the manufacturing process but not as the main system for managing and monitoring their industrial and infrastructure processes.
Is SCADA a domestic system? If not, how can Iran utilize it despite sanctions?
The expert explained that SCADA is not Iran's invention. It consists of hardware and software components that can be sourced from various international suppliers. In response to sanctions, Iran might have developed its own SCADA systems or adapted existing ones to meet its needs.
“This involves using local expertise to design, manufacture, and maintain SCADA components. Iran might procure SCADA components and software through third-party suppliers from countries that do not adhere to the same sanctions or through indirect channels, making it possible to bypass certain restrictions,” according to the AI researcher.
Iran seems to have deftly navigated the recent global IT chaos, but what is the unseen factor at play here?
Iran's National Center for Cyberspace presented the situation positively, stating, "No damage or disruption in services to the public has been reported in Iran. Due to Western sanctions, Iran has been barred from receiving these services for years. Consequently, local, alternative services were developed by the country's youth and experts and are currently operational."
The statement further highlighted, "Additionally, the country has developed robust capabilities in providing indigenous cloud services, which are now ready for export to other countries. Iran is prepared to share its expertise and export products in this field."
However, Tahvili holds a different perspective.
She remarked, "SCADA systems are often considered outdated and face several challenges, particularly regarding integration and compatibility with newer technologies such as cloud computing." As industries increasingly move towards advanced data analytics and cloud-based solutions, "the compatibility of SCADA systems becomes a significant concern," Tahvili explained. This integration challenge can "lead to inefficiencies and limit the ability to leverage cutting-edge technological advancements fully."
She further highlighted that "the connectivity of SCADA systems to corporate networks and the internet introduces severe security vulnerabilities." While remote monitoring and control are essential, this connectivity "exposes SCADA systems to external threats, including cyber-attacks and malicious software like the Stuxnet worm." Referring to the infamous Stuxnet incident in 2010, Tahvili pointed out that it "specifically targeted SCADA systems and caused substantial damage to Iran's nuclear program."
Tahvili emphasized the critical need for robust cybersecurity measures, stating, "Several security breaches have highlighted the need to protect these critical infrastructures." Despite SCADA systems being essential for Iran's industrial processes due to sanctions and limited infrastructure, their "outdated nature and compatibility issues with new technologies pose significant challenges." Additionally, she warned that "the security vulnerabilities arising from their connectivity to broader networks underscore the urgent need for enhanced security protocols to safeguard against potential threats."
Saying this in an interview with Khabar Online website in Tehran Fereidoun Majlesi added: "We have had enough tensions. It is now time for peace." In another odd statement the former diplomat said that political parties do not determine American foreign policy, perhaps hinting that Washington’s position regarding Iran transcends Republican or Democratic administrations.
The centrist website noted that the United States currently shows little interest in political changes in Iran or nuclear negotiations with Iranian officials. At the same time, Iran's President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian, in his latest statements, welcomed negotiations with Europe but expressed no interest in talks with the United States.
The discussion about what will follow the recent presidential elections in Iran is a recurrent theme in Tehran’s government-controlled media, that mostly tries to highlight Pezeshkian’s positive statements about the need to have good relations with other countries. But media outlets rarely mention his back-and-forth messages of support for Iran’s militant proxy forces.
Highlighting that Iran has lagged behind in development for 45 years, Majlesi stated that Iran needs to reduce tensions with the United States and Israel and demonstrate goodwill to reach a compromise and normalize the situation. Additionally, Iran should accept international banking protocols and conduct transactions using US dollars to facilitate international trade.
However, no media outlet mentions that this requires a drastic change in foreign policy that only Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei can authorize.
Meanwhile, in an interview with the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA), international relations analyst Reza Nasri said that if the Pezeshkian administration is looking for economic development, it should first seek security and stability in the region.
Nasri added that like Saudi officials, Pezeshkian believes that regional countries should not waste their financial resources on attritional conflicts. Majlesi had also pointed out that so far, Iran has been wasting its resources in wars against other regional and Muslim countries.
Nasri explained that Pezeshkian's declared foreign policy is based on the three pillars of balanced relations with regional states, constructive interaction to facilitate development and adopting policies that would not be costly for the people's livelihood. He also pointed out that Tehran and the United States should conduct negotiations at one point as both are major players in the region and cannot ignore each other.
To this end, he said, Pezeshkian should put together an agile foreign policy team of pragmatic officials mindful of the fact that unpredictable situations might be awaiting us six months later. The new Iranian foreign policy team should be prepared to face any scenario, he added.
Nonetheless, speaking about the support Pezeshkian has expressed for the "axis of resistance," – or Iran’s proxies - Nasri said that a solid and strong diplomacy by Iran as well as international support for the Palestinian cause, could turn the resistance into a legitimate "liberation movement."
Meanwhile, former ambassador to the United Kingdom Mohammad Hossein Adeli told the press in Tehran that "Iran is playing a game at the edge of a cliff," and added that "those who still talk about circumventing the sanctions are in fact thinking of the continuation of sanctions." He was likely referring to influential insiders who are widely believed to be profiting from the US oil export and international banking sanctions.
Adeli warned that "The slightest error in foreign policy can drag Iran into an instability that might affect the country's existence." He urged Pezeshkian to adopt a realistic approach and carefully assess the regional and international situation.
Adeli further cautioned that regional developments could lead Iran into a war benefiting Israel and the United States. He stressed the need for Pezeshkian to assemble a foreign policy team capable of navigating and avoiding such dangerous scenarios.