Iran, proxies gear up for retaliation after Haniyeh killing

"These lies are being propagated while the results of the experts' investigation indicate that Haniyeh was struck by a projectile, in which involvement of the Zionist regime cannot be ruled out,” read a report by Fars news agency.

Citing five Middle Eastern officials, the New York Times report claimed the bomb was hidden in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-run guesthouse in the Neshat compound in northern Tehran, the report states.

The newspaper detailed that the explosion, which occurred around 2am local time, was triggered remotely and caused significant damage. It shook the building, shattered windows, and partially collapsed an exterior wall.

It is not clear who the Middle Eastern officials are, and if they are from countries friendly with Iran, that would have an interest in offering a scenario less damaging to the IRGC or the Iranian regime. Some Iranian journalists and activists shed doubt on the veracity of the report, saying that the Iranian regime does not want to appear totally unable to defend itself against foreign missile or drone attacks. However, the Fars News insistence that a projectile hit the building appears to weaken this argument.

The assassination of Haniyeh, who was in Tehran for the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian, has sparked speculation about the method of his killing.

Earlier, most observers had said that the killing was done by a projectile hitting the specific part of the building where Haniyeh was spending the night.

However, the NYT article says the meticulous planning behind the attack was such that, despite the proximity of Ziyad al-Nakhalah, leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, who was staying next door, his room sustained minimal damage, as claimed by two Iranian officials.

Reports, including those from Iranian state media, suggest he may have been targeted by a drone or a precision-guided missile, with special forces in Tehran directing the strike from nearby windows.

Another theory posited by Iranian media suggests that spyware was installed on his phone, enabling his location to be monitored and ultimately leading to his tracking and assassination.

To date, Iranian officials have not commented on the specific circumstances surrounding the death of the figure who had been the key bridge between Iran and Hamas since 2017.

The report lacks several key explanations, including why Haniyeh, who had stayed at the guesthouse multiple times during his visits to Tehran, was targeted on this occasion without clarifying the specific reasons for the timing of the attack.

The NYT's report contradicts statements by Pezeshkian’s supporters who have insisted that the attack was aimed at his new administration. If the bomb was placed two months ago, at that time Pezeshkian was not even a presidential candidate.

‘Reformist’ journalist and political activist Ahmad Zeidabadi stated on Thursday that the "primary objective" of the attack on Haniyeh was to "destabilize and potentially paralyze the Pezeshkian government from the outset."

Regardless of the method employed, it is evident that even Iranian officials acknowledge a significant failure on Iran's part to protect Haniyeh, reflecting a profound lapse in adequate security.

According to three Iranian officials speaking to the New York Times, such a breach "was a catastrophic failure of intelligence and security for Iran and a tremendous embarrassment for the Guards, which use the compound for retreats, secret meetings, and housing prominent guests like Mr. Haniyeh."

Some officials such as IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani’s deputy and former MP, Mansour Haqiqatpour, have even suggested that a purge within the security forces is necessary.

He condemned the assassination for the impact it will have on Iran's security apparatus, telling Rouydad 24 that the killing "casts a negative light on Iran's security officials". He called for accountability among certain political, military, and security officials, suggesting that "some may need to be dismissed."

The conservative Iranian newspaper Jomhouri-e Eslami also criticized the security forces for failing to eliminate infiltrators within their ranks.

The article condemned the focus on "getting revenge" rather than preventing terror acts and recommended a "comprehensive purge of intelligence and security agencies" to safeguard against such assassinations.

He woke up to the news of the killing of Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh, and started his official business with three days of mourning for the Palestinian figure.

He couldn't even attend his first cabinet meeting, which was held with the previous government's ministers still in office until his own cabinet takes over in two to three weeks. The meeting was led by his much-criticized Vice President, Mohammad Reza Aref, who began the session with a neutral and formulaic speech, carefully avoiding any strong statements. This contrasted with other Iranian officials who vowed revenge against Israel for Haniyeh's death.

A series of other news followed. As the Tehran Stock Exchange experienced one of its biggest crashes, Aref told reporters that the government would "inject funds" into the stock market from the National Development Fund, effectively Iran's Foreign Currency Reserve. Few governments would take such a step, but the Islamic Republic, known for its lack of a clear economic policy, is one of them.

Simultaneously, the exchange rate for the US dollar, which had been around 570,000 rials per dollar the previous week, saw one of its biggest jumps in months, rising to over 610,000 rials per dollar by Wednesday morning. Iranian economist Ali Sarzaim attributed the increase not to economic factors but to the market's reaction to Haniyeh's death.

However, the biggest impact of the news appears to be Iranian's disillusionment about the Islamic Republic's security. Hundreds of tweets during the early hours of the morning contained sarcasm about Iranian officials' constant boasting about the country's security. Iranian journalist Sara Massoumi noted that the attack undermined the reputation and influence of Iranian intelligence.

Some Iranians on social media mocked the government, suggesting it should focus more on protecting its high-level guests rather than sending security forces to the streets to beat and arrest women who defy the compulsory hijab.

Revelations about Iran's intelligence vulnerabilities surfaced just days after Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib claimed that his ministry had dismantled Israel's influence network within the country. Earlier, former Intelligence Minister Ali Yunesi had warned that even Iran's highest-ranking officials are not immune to Israeli attacks.

Amid calls from many Iranians for the new president to protect and uphold citizens' rights, a popular singer whose song Baraye [For] went viral during the Mahsa uprising in 2022, and who was briefly jailed at the time, tweeted that he has been summoned to prison to serve a 3.5-year sentence—simply for singing the song.

In another development, a report on the conservative Ghatreh News website, as well as numerous social media reports from Lahijan, a city in Gilan Province in northern Iran, say that the city's Friday prayers leader Javad Soleimani, was killed by multiple stabs during what has been characterized as "a personal matter." However, according to the official website of the Qom Seminary, the cleric was "assassinated."

Pezeshkian’s second day in office on Thursday was not much better than his first, as he attended the symbolic funeral of Haniyeh in Tehran University, where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recited prayers, as he nervously watched the skies.

The delegation was wearing white jackets with black clothing, the women all with compulsory hijabs with film and television actor Behrang Alavi posting on Instagram: "Wishing success for the injections team."

Public figures and media outlets have not held back in their criticism.

State TV host Elmira Sharifimoghaddam said on air, "The Iranian team looked as if a team of doctors and nurses had gone to Paris."

The moderate-conservative website, Asr-e Iran, highlighted the consistently poor choice of attire for the delegations as they travel to the Games over the years, controversy around uniforms nothing new for Iran.

"Since the London 2012 Olympics, Rio de Janeiro 2016, Tokyo 2021, and now in Paris, the issue of strange, bizarre, and ugly clothing designs has been a consistent source of embarrassment," they wrote.

"It is astonishing that the Ministry of Sports and the National Olympic Committee have not been able to provide an elegant and dignified outfit for the Iranian team for the Paris Olympics in the past three years."

Adding fuel to the fire, there was no official unveiling ceremony for the uniforms before the team's departure, a shift from tradition likely intended to avoid immediate backlash.

The Ministry of Sports and the National Olympic Committee have faced intense scrutiny, with many questioning the transparency and rationale behind their choices.

Asieh Amini, a social issues analyst, told Iran International that in 2021, 31 billion rials (over $160,000 at the time) were allocated for athletes' clothing, “but this year, we don't even know how much has been spent", she said, as the country faces its worst ever economic crisis.

She added, "These uniforms have no connection to a country with various ethnic groups and their beautiful traditional clothes. How is it possible that, with all our ethnicities, traditions, and high potential, what we show to the world is so tasteless?”

Asr-e Iran's review added, "The Olympics is the most important sporting event for all athletes worldwide. With these ugly outfits, we completely destroy our athletes' morale and confidence from the opening day, and then we expect them to bring home the best medals."

Some have also shared AI-generated photos depicting how the Iran team uniforms might have looked if designed by AI.

Mahsa Javar, a national rowing athlete and brand ambassador for the Iranian sports delegation's clothing, defended the designs in a controversial social media post, calling the critics "uncultured."

Her comments only intensified the backlash, with many advising her to focus on her performance rather than engage in the controversy. However, she later apologized for her comments, stating that the athletes, like others, are not happy with the uniform.

The 2016 Rio Olympics saw a major uproar over the bizarre design and color choices, leading to a complete redesign. The 2020 Tokyo Olympics followed a similar pattern, with athletes wearing turquoise blue attire and white masks, which were widely criticized, none of which bore the colors of Iran's national flag.

Prominent sports website Varzesh-3 vented frustration saying the opportunity on the Olympics' "grand stage" has been missed, once again. "Most other countries use this opportunity to showcase the most beautiful aspects of their culture and civilization. We, however, consistently fail to present a respectable image," she said.

Allegations of cronyism have also surfaced. Mojtaba Pourbakhsh, a former TV host, revealed that the design contract initially awarded to the Majid brand or Merooj Inc. was abruptly handed over to the Hectaton brand, owned by Ali Aajdarkosh.

The Majid brand is owned by the Abdolmajid Saedifar family. They operate under a company named Majid Merooj Iranians, which was established in 2010. The quality of the national football, wrestling, and volleyball team uniforms designed by the company has faced criticism in recent years.

The Hectaton brand is also owned by a company named Pishgaman Danily Aras. This company was established in 2012 and, like Majid Merooj Iranians, is family-operated under the ownership of Ali Ajdarkosh.

Ajdarkosh's close ties with sports officials and athletes, along with his sponsorship of various events, have raised questions about the integrity of the selection process.

According to Pourbakhsh, the National Olympic Committee, whose secretary has been Manaf Hashemi since 2022, initially signed a multi-billion contract with the Majid brand for the design and production of the uniforms. However, the project was later handed over to the Ajdarkosh family.

Another official responsible for selecting the Iranian team's outfits for the Olympics is Mahmoud Khosravi Vafa. Khosravi Vafa has been the President of the National Olympic Committee since September 2022. In 1980 and 1981, he served as a bodyguard for Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, for a short period.

Rouydad 24 reported that the Iranian government's direct intervention and preference for close associates in selecting the clothing designer bypassed usual formalities, leading to the current debacle.

"This time, everything happened behind the scenes," said Majid Nami, a member of the Clothing Union. "The result is a disgraceful representation of our culture and heritage."

“Cronyism and connections are two factors that prevent transparency in the procurement of uniforms for national and Olympic teams. If high-level decision-making and the Iranian government were free from cronyism and connections, there would be no other reason to obscure this process," said Amini in her interview with Iran International.

She also called the industry a "mafia", saying, "When you have this mafia behind all your operations and decisions, it is definitely necessary to be transparent. But to avoid accountability, you are forced to conceal everything and keep it shrouded in ambiguity. And then, when it's all over, they say it's too late to do anything about it,” she said.

“The issue is that this lack of accountability and transparency has become routine in the Islamic Republic. Corruption has essentially become a standard practice among the managers of the Islamic Republic,” she added.

The intense security measures, including a declared no-fly zone on Thursday, underscored the Iranian government's heightened concerns over potential threats during the ceremony after the assassination of the Hamas political chief on Iran's watch. He will be buried in Qatar, his main host country, reportedly on Friday.

It reveals the deepening vulnerability of the Islamic Republic’s security apparatus, now evidently struggling to shield itself from external and internal threats alike after what is believed to have been a precision missile killed the militant in the heart of Tehran.

From 6am to 12 noon on Thursday, the airspace over central Tehran, including the area around Tehran University and the residence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was off-limits to all air traffic, including drones.

Despite official denials from Reza Kargar of the Iran Airports Company about any impact on commercial flights, the restrictions reflected a clear state of alert.

At the funeral, significant figures such as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf paid their respects to the man who had personally cultivated close ties to Iran and the Supreme Leader since becoming the political leader in 2017.

Ghalibaf, addressing the assembled mourners, described the assassination of Haniyeh as a "strategic mistake" by Israel, warning that Israel would "pay a hefty price for this."

"Their second mistake," he continued, "is ignoring our leader's words that the era of hit-and-run is over."

Khamenei's presence to lead prayers over Haniyeh’s body was marked by notable moments of tension. A video from the event, widely shared on social media, shows Khamenei casting anxious glances around.

The assassination of Haniyeh, coming on the heels of other high-profile attacks, has exposed the fragility of Iran's internal security.

Ahmad Alavi, an economist and analyst, blamed "corruption and inefficiencies within Iran's security apparatus" which has left it exposed to sophisticated foreign intelligence operations. "When resources are misused and oversight is weakened, it's inevitable that foreign agents can exploit these weaknesses," Alavi said.

The New York Times, citing Iranian sources, reported that Khamenei has instructed the Supreme National Security Council to respond directly from Iranian soil, with military plans targeting Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Journalist Jamshid Barzegar says Iran's responses so far have not seen a match against Israel and its ally, the US. In April, when Iran launched over 350 rockets, drones and missiles towards Israel, the first direct attack on the Jewish state, the majority were intercepted by Israel and a US-led coalition.

"While Israel and the US have delivered significant blows to the Islamic Republic's human and material resources, Iran has struggled to respond with equivalent actions," he said.

He pointed out that, unlike Israel and the US targeting key figures, Iran has attempted to target Israeli civilians or businesspeople abroad, often unsuccessfully, leading to international embarrassments with dozens of plots foiled in countries including Greece, Azerbaijan and Belgium.

On Tuesday top lawmakers overseeing US foreign policy threatened to subpoena the State Department following the agency’s failure to provide information about suspended Iran envoy Robert Malley. Meanwhile, on Wednesday other US lawmakers raised concerns about potential Iranian influence within the Biden administration, specifically questioning Vice President Kamala Harris’s national security advisor, Philip Gordon.

In a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Jim Risch and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul expressed deep frustration with the State Department's lack of transparency regarding the suspension of Robert Malley's security clearance. They condemned the Department's failure to respond to repeated inquiries since June 2023 as "deeply troubling" and unacceptable.

The lawmakers demanded the Department "provide fulsome answers" to their queries by no later than close of business on August 2, 2024. They warned that should the Department miss this deadline, they would be "compelled to pursue compulsory processes to secure any documents, materials, and testimony" relevant to their investigation from members of the State Department.

Risch and McCaul emphasized that they sent a letter on May 6, 2024, requesting immediate answers but have since received more information from the press than from official channels. They stated, "We have been made aware that there may be a classified response to our letter but have yet to receive it. This vague assurance, however, failed to include any information on when we could expect your reply or whether it would address all of our questions." Risch had previously stated that it was likely they would not get any answers unless they issued a subpoena.

In late May, Semafor reported, quoting people familiar with a Congressional probe into Malley's handling of classified information, that Biden’s Iran envoy transferred documents to his personal devices “with classifications ranging from sensitive but unclassified to classified,” and may have shared some with unauthorized people, “to advance his diplomatic efforts.” Among the documents downloaded by Malley on his personal devices, Semafor reported, were "detailed notes of the diplomat’s encounters with Iranian officials in the months leading up to his suspension.

Malley was appointed by President Joe Biden in early 2021 to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, advocating for sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear restrictions. Despite efforts, the deal has not been reinstated since Trump's 2018 withdrawal. In April 2023, Malley was placed on leave and had his security clearance suspended. Iran International first reported the incident two months later, but the State Department blocked all attempts to find more information about Malley’s case.

Separately, on Wednesday US Senator Tom Cotton and US Congress Member Elise M. Stefanik Elise M. Stefani wrote to Vice President Kamala Harris regarding her national security advisor, Philip Gordon's connections to Ariane Tabatabai, a senior Department of Defense official involved in an Iranian government operation to expand Tehran’s influence in the United States.

In 2023, Iran International and Semafor investigation uncovered the Iran Experts Initiative (IEI) - a scheme devised by Iran’s foreign ministry in 2014 to bring together a network of scholars outside Iran to advocate Iran's foreign policy and nuclear strategy. A few were been named in the report, including Ariane Tabatabai, who entered the State Department after Biden was elected.

Cotton and Stefanik cited Mr. Gordon's past collaborations with Ms. Tabatabai and his associations with the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), an alleged Iranian influence organization.

"We write to express concern about your national security advisor Mr. Philip Gordon’s connections to Ms. Ariane Tabatabai," Cotton and Stefanik stated in their letter. They added that Ms. Tabatabai was "reportedly involved in an Iranian government operation to expand Tehran’s soft power in the United States."

Cotton and Stefanik requested answers to several questions, including whether Mr. Gordon underwent security screening, his awareness of Ms. Tabatabai’s connections, and what actions Vice President Harris plans to take to address Iranian sympathizers within the administration. They set a deadline of August 9, 2024, for a response.