Iran hypes retaliation threat; US bolsters regional military presence

What is the capacity of this newly created position? What is Zarif's agenda in this context, and what goals will he pursue? Based on what has been said and published in Iran so far, Zarif's most likely role will be to lead influence campaigns in the West.

Deputy, adviser, or head of a study center?
The text of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s appointment letter draws multiple roles for Zarif. As the President’s deputy, Zarif will hold a portfolio equivalent to those overseeing executive, parliamentary, legal, and Sunni affairs, or similar to positions like the heads of the Atomic Energy Organization, the Management and Planning Organization, or the Environmental Protection Organization. While these organizations are not ministries, they function at a comparable level.
At the same time, Zarif is expected to advise the head of the executive branch on strategic matters. His role includes: "Leveraging the accumulated experience of the country's senior managers over the past decades and the extensive expertise of elites from think tanks and civil society institutions.” The president also noted that Zarif is “expected to monitor major domestic and international developments, assess the success in achieving the goals of the constitution, the vision document, and the general policies approved by the Supreme Leader, and report directly to me." Zarif himself acknowledges this advisory role.
Another role assigned to Zarif is to preside over a research institute. According to Pezeshkian’s letter, Zarif is tasked with "taking over the responsibility of the Presidential Strategic Research Center and transforming its missions and functions into a suitable organization for the President’s deputyship." The Presidential Strategic Research Center, part of the Iranian Presidential Institution, serves as a think tank for the administration, conducting strategic and inter-institutional studies, reviews, and research. It is responsible for introducing plans and proposals related to national strategies in political, economic, social, and cultural fields, in line with the general policies of the system.

This strategic deputy position was specifically created for Mohammad Javad Zarif, as it did not previously exist within the organizational structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Zarif's agenda
Zarif has clearly outlined the mission of this new deputy position: "No new bureaucracy or mechanisms will be created, there will be no burden on the government's budget or the people's table; no interference with existing operations; no diminishing the functions of any organization; and the role will serve as a bridge between the government, the people, think tanks, and civil institutions."

Zarif will not establish new organizations and will have an office within the presidential building. He will continue the role he played during Pezeshkian’s campaign and in the appointment of ministers: mobilizing and promoting Pezeshkian’s agenda. His job is to help the president navigate among existing power structures; a role similar to what he held as foreign minister. Additionally, in situations where the president is sidelined, Zarif will find ways to maneuver between political, security, and military forces, as he did when dealing with the notorious Qasem Soleimani, the IRGC, and the Supreme Leader’s office, to avoid becoming irrelevant.

The idea of connecting the government with the people and civil institutions seems far-fetched, as Zarif operates within the hardcore of power and has never engaged with independent civil society institutions in Iran.

Zarif's capabilities
Zarif lacks significant influence within the country, aside from a few experts at the Institute for Political and International Studies, an entity affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the senior staff of the Ministry. His real strength lies in the network he has cultivated abroad. During his decade-long stay in New York as Iran's representative at the United Nations and his 8 years as Foreign Minister, Zarif developed an extensive network of foreign contacts that Pezeshkian needs. Despite opposition from some in the parliament and the IRGC, Pezeshkian must bear the cost of maintaining Zarif's cooperation.
Zarif is a valuable partner for cooperation, often praised by a network of Iranian and non-Iranian forces in the media, think tanks, and foreign ministries in Western countries. He can shape narratives and provide analysis that aligns with the goals of Pezeshkian or the Leader’s office during critical periods. Holding a government position also shields him from suspicions of unauthorized cooperation with foreign governments, a serious legal charge in Iran. Over his eight years as Foreign Minister, Zarif demonstrated a high capacity for disinformation, outright lies, and propaganda aimed at influencing public opinion in the West.

An investigative report by Iran International and Semafor in 2023, revealed that during Zarif’s tenure as foreign minister, the Islamic Republic was able to create the Iran Experts Initiative in the United States in mid-2010s, to influence American policy centers and the US government. The operation was led and coordinated by officials working for Zarif.

A group of experts were tasked to write articles and opinion pieces, for example, that aimed to defend Tehran’s position on major issues, such as Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions.

In a recent example, after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, individuals known for defending pro-Tehran positions in the West framed his assassination as a setback to the peace process and the pursuit of a ceasefire. This narrative, which aligns with the views of the Biden administration and some European countries, is used by the Islamic Republic of Iran to portray Israel as the aggressor. Zarif can focus on coordinating and amplifying these types of influence activities.

After attending a conference she was invited to in the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2018, Dr. Kylie Moore-Gilbert was arrested by the intelligence arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and eventually sentenced to 10 years in prison on charges of espionage.

Two years later, she was released in exchange for three convicted Iranian terrorists connected to a bomb plot in Bangkok in 2012.

During her time in Iran's notorious Evin prison she learned to speak Farsi and came into contact with high-level IRGC and state officials.

On this week's episode of 'Eye for Iran', Moore- Gilbert opens up about her time in prison and explains why she believes there was likely an Iranian insider behind the suspected Israeli hit, as Iran reels in the wake of Ismail Haniyeh's assassination.

Speaking to host Negar Mojtahedi, Moore-Gilbert also shares what she learned about her captors and what that means about the state of mind of high ranking government officials in this week's episode of 'Eye for Iran.'

You can watch the entire episode on Iran International's YouTubePage or listen to it on Spotify, Apple or Amazon.

Reports indicate that, despite possessing valid residency documents, Gholami received multiple text message warnings regarding her hijab before being summoned to the passport office, where she was detained by Iranian police and deported within hours.

The people close to her contend that her expulsion lacked legal justification and that she was denied the opportunity to communicate with her family.

Her deportation has ignited a social media firestorm amid Iran's ongoing crackdown on women over mandatory hijab.

Users have launched a campaign with the hashtag "#BringBackKobra," voicing concerns about her fate in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and advocating for her return to Iran.

Shima Va’ezi, an Iranian social media user, drew attention to Gholami's abrupt deportation on X, stating, "Kobra is now on the bus and hasn't had the chance to speak to or say goodbye to her family and loved ones. She possessed all the necessary residency documents and was pursuing a master's degree at Al-Zahra University."

On Thursday, Ameneh Zamani, a child rights activist briefly detained in 2022, wrote on her Instagram account that Gholami recently delivered a speech in Iran titled "Identity Formation of Migrant Women at the Intersection of Gender and Nationality."

Describing Gholami as a "strong and independent" woman, Zamani wrote: "All of us women dream of living in a world of freedom. Let's be Kobra’s voice! As Kobra said, 'Hope is the seed of our identity.'"

Last year, Gholami spoke at the sixth conference on Social-Cultural Research in Iran, under the theme "Femininity and Social-Cultural Transformation," in a panel titled "Afghan Migrant Women in the Cycle of Oppression," where she criticized the treatment of Afghan migrant women in Iran.

Afghans constitute the majority of immigrants in Iran, both legal and illegal, and are frequently labeled as "foreign nationals" by officials and the media. Currently, officials estimate the number of Afghan immigrants in Iran to be as high as 8 million.

International human rights organizations have recorded years of mistreatment of Afghan refugees and migrants in Iran as they continue to be deprived of many essential services, including healthcare, employment opportunities, and housing. However, a large influx since the 2021 takeover of the Taliban has led to some backlash by Iranians who say their country has multiple serious economic and social crises and cannot handle refugees.

According to Afghan authorities, Iran deported over 20,000 Afghan children last year, many of whom were unaccompanied and without guardians.

Israel has kept its customary silence on the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr who was killed in Beirut only a day before the Palestinian leader. It is believed, almost universally, however, that both assassinations were planned and executed by Israeli secret services.

According to an Axios report citing two US officials, President Joe Biden had a “tough” call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday, where he vented his frustration from the fallout from Israel’s escalatory action, as his administration tries to broker a hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.

On Thursday, Iranian officials convened in Tehran with representatives from Iran-backed groups to discuss plans for what is said to be a joint mission against Israel, which they blame for the killing of Haniyeh and Shukr. Iran and its allies are preparing coordinated actions intended to “deter Israel while avoiding full-scale war," according to AFP.

This would be in line with Iran’s strategy in its last retaliatory action against Israel in April, where dozens of missiles and kamikaze drones were launched from Iran. Tehran telegraphed that strike in advance giving Israel, the US and their allies enough time to prepare and shoot down all but two of the missiles –which landed near a military base but left no casualties.

However, this time, it is not unclear whether Iran will give Israel and its allies that much time to prepare for any new round of major Iranian attacks, officials told The New York Times on Friday.

The Axios report seems to suggest that the Biden administration is mindful that the retaliatory cycle might become the ‘new normal’ and edge Israel and Iran closer to a full-blown war.

President Biden’s reported warning to Netanyahu comes amid parallel measures to bolster US military presence in the Middle East as well as support for its allies.

The US is “poised” to send more combat aircrafts to the Middle East, according to the New York Times report. However, the US lawmakers are not satisfied with the Biden administration's measures to protect Israel.

Earlier this week, two US lawmakers introduced a measure that would authorize the US government to give Israel ‘bunker buster’ bombs that can “take out” Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.

The bipartisan act, titled Bunker Busters Act, comes at a time of heightened tension between Iran and Israel, but seems to be unrelated to recent events, as it was introduced Tuesday, one day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. It seems to have gained more significance, however, amid reports of retaliation against Israel, “as early as this weekend.”

“We cannot sit silently while the ayatollah and his minions plot to wipe Israel off the map,” said Mast in a statement, “Israel must have the tools necessary to protect its people against Iranian aggression.” Gottheimer echoed Mast’s message. “While Iran and its terrorist proxies continue to wreak havoc and chaos around the world, we must ensure they can never threaten the US or our allies with a nuclear weapon.”

Currently, the Biden administration does not have the authority to give Israel a ‘bunker buster’ –or Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). The bill, if passed and enacted, would provide congressional authorization for such a provision, pending the results of Pentagon study on whether this move serves US national security interests.

The MOP weighs around 13 tons, according to the US Air Force, and is intended to penetrate up to 200 feet underground before exploding.

According to these reports, Niknejad and his wife were detained at Berlin airport upon their return from a one-month leave, three weeks after the closure of Islamic centers affiliated with the Islamic Republic across Germany, and were subsequently deported back to Iran.

An Iran International source told our correspondent, Ahmad Samadi, that Niknejad became involved in a confrontation with airport police after realizing he was not permitted to enter Germany.

Previously, in November 2022, Soleiman Mousavifar, the deputy head of the Islamic Center of Hamburg, was expelled for supporting Hezbollah.

Germany shut down the Khamenei-controlled Islamic Center of Hamburg and Blue Mosque in July for its role in serving as a hub of terrorist ideology, antisemitism and anti-democratic threats to the Federal Republic’s constitution order, according to the interior ministry.

When asked the closure, a German interior ministry (BMI) spokesman, Lars Harmsen, told Iran International on Thursday that “In addition to the Islamisches Zentrum Hamburg, the BMI has also banned sub-organisations and confiscated their assets. These were the following: the Islamische Akademie Deutschland, the Verein der Förderer einer iranischen-islamischen Moschee in Hamburg, the Zentrum der Islamischen Kultur in Frankfurt (Main), the Islamische Vereinigung Bayern in Munich, and the Islamisches Zentrum Berlin.”

When asked by Iran International if the confiscated assets from Iran’s regime, the Islamic Center of Hamburg and Blue Mosque and other entities, will be used to provide compensation to the Iranian victims of terrorism in Germany, the spokesman said, "Concrete plans for a future usage of the Blue Mosque and other confiscated assets can only be made by the BMI once the ban is final. Therefore, the outcome of the administrative procedure remains to be seen.”

When questioned about future closures of other Iranian regime-linked and controlled centers, mosques and associations the BMI spokesman said, “In principle, the BMI does not comment on possible further bans, regardless of whether there is reason to consider them in individual cases or not…”

Meanwhile, Iranian-German dissidents are urging the German authorities to shutter additional organizations and mosques linked to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Dr. Kazem Moussavi, the spokesman for the Green Party of Iran in exile in Germany, told Iran International “The closure of the Islamic Center of Hamburg was long overdue and necessary. The closure came too late and is insufficient. Germany’s appeasement policies toward Iran’s regime continues. “

He urged that Germany to shut down the Islamic Republic’s embassy in Berlin and the regime-linked Al-Mustafa Institute in Berlin , as well as the pro-Khamenei Islamic Community of Shiite Communities. Moussavi termed the Iranian regime embassy and other Tehran-linked entities a “security risk” for Germany.

According to Moussavi, the Al-Mustafa Institute’s director was a long-time religious teacher from the banned IAD (Islamic Academy in Germany). The Al-Mustafa Institute in Berlin is part of the Al-Mustafa International University in Iran, where foreign recruits are being ideologically trained.

“The Al-Mustafa International University is the main institution for exporting the regime's ideology to the Islamic world, the West and Germany. It has over a hundred branches worldwide with more than 40,000 students,” said Moussavi.”

He added that the organization of Islamic Community of Shiite communities has more than 150 mosques and the director of the now-defunct Islamic Center of Hamburg is the chairman of the spiritual council of the Islamic Community of Shiite Communities.

Moussavi noted that the largely pro-Iran regime German Körber Foundation is Hamburg protects and supports Seyyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Tehran diplomat who currently is employed by Princeton university. Körber’s cooperation with him legitimizes his past activities, Mousavi argued.

The Iranian-German dissident, Mina Ahadi, who is leading the Alliance Against Islamic Regime of Iran Apologists (AAIRIA) campaign in Germany to compel Körber to pull the plug on its relations with Mousavian and Iran’s government, told Iran International Germany should close the Iranian regime’s “embassy and consulate and the Islamic Community of Shiite Communities.”

She added that Germany needs to sanction the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Ahadi said there “must put more pressure” on the Körber Foundation.

“Körber must see that when it works together with the Islamic regime, they are making a fascist and anti-women government stronger,” she said.

Ahadi was pleased with the interior minister's decision to shutter the Islamic Center of Hamburg. She worked to secure the center's closure.

In 2023, German Iranians demanded that the German state government of Hesse shut down the pro-Iran regime Center for Islamic Culture in Frankfurt that honored IRGC's Qasem Soleimani.

Iran International reported, in May, on the growing pressure on Körber Foundation to sever ties with Mousavian and the Islamic Republic of Iran. In June, Iranian-Germans protested in front of Körber’s building in Hamburg.

Iranian activists in Germany say that Mousavian is "an extension of the antisemitic regime, acting as its loyal lobbyist in the US through the support of the Körber Foundation in Germany.”

When asked about the scandal-plagued Körber Foundation, the German interior ministry spokesman told Iran International "As a matter of principle, we do not comment on matters of public foundations. The Körber Foundation is not an object of observation of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution." Germany's domestic intelligence agency is called the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

Multiple Iran International press queries sent to the Körber Foundation and its parent company, Körber AG, were not returned. Körber was founded by the former Nazi, Kurt Adolf Körber (1909-1992), who exploited concentration camp victims to advance the Holocaust and Adolf Hitler’s war goals.