Iranian missiles to allow Russia to strike deeper into Ukraine - UK

Tom Sharpe, worked alongside the Americans in the Red Sea for two decades, witnessing their might as the most powerful navy in the world.

Despite that image and legacy, the Houthis have not been deterred by the US defensive and allied naval actions, he believes.

The Americans, and by extension the ‘West’, are failing to the Iran-backed rebels from the mountains of Yemen, he concluded.

The retired navy commander revealed on the Eye for Iran podcast that Tehran is winning against the US in the Red Sea.

“They're achieving their ends, all of them, and we're achieving none of ours. We're spending millions and millions of dollars on not winning. It's a real problem.”

Just after Oct 7, the Houthis have been attacking maritime shipping, disrupting shipping trade through the crucial Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The Iran-backed rebel group say they are conducting the attacks in solidarity with the people of Gaza to push for a ceasefire, but Sharpe said they have only convinced a few.

According to the Joint Maritime Information Centre, the Houthis have attacked nearly 100 vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since Israel's war against Hamas began after the atrocities of Oct 7.

The rebel group released footage in August of their fighters on the Greek-flagged oil tanker Sounion, detonating explosives on the ship. That prompted concerns of an environmental disaster.

In early September, the US military said the Houthis attacked two crude oil tankers – the Saudi- flagged Amjad, carrying about two million barrels of oil, and the Panama- flagged Blue Lagoon in the Red Sea. The Houthis claimed responsibility for targeting the Blue Lagoon with missiles and drones.

For Sharpe, the way the US is responding to the Houthis is “unusual” given how the US Navy had been operating and their procedures over the years.

“When the USS Mason was fired at in 2017 in the same area, they shot T -Lam Tomahawks straight back almost immediately. This whole thing has been backward leaning for all sorts of political reasons, but it’s just engendered this idea that the Houthis can keep going.”

Why is it that the most powerful navy in the world cannot beat a rebel group from the mountains?

Sharpe said to “hit them hard enough to make them stop would be really difficult” and the reason is “they’ve learned so much from Iran in terms of mass maneuverability.”

The bedrock of Iran’s strategy, he said, is concealment and agility in the Persian Gulf. Sharp added, if you go after one target, which costs in the millions, the Houthis are skilled at hiding their weapons, and move it around on mobile launchers, hiding it in the mountains and villages.

The Americans would need a tremendous amount of airborne surveillance to achieve anything and that comes with huge costs with one missile used to strike a drone, amounting to around 6 million US dollars, according to Sharpe.

Another reason for a weak response from the Americans would be not to anger Iran and set off the balance of deterrence in the Middle East.

On Ward Carroll's YouTube episode, titled 'Admiral Tells the Real Truth about battling the Houthis in the Red Sea," a US Navy commander from the Dwight D Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, said he suggested more aggressive strikes on the Houthis, but he was told not to by higher command to reportedly avoid angering Iran.

Gen. Michael Kurilla, CENTCOM's commander claimed in a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that the current policies are "failing" to have the desired impact on Houthi attacks, according to an exclusive published in the Wall Street Journal.

On Eye for Iran, Sharpe also revealed that the Houthis are likely exporters of weapons, saying that they learned to reverse engineer from the Islamic Republic.

"They've become so good at this; they may well be sending it back to Iran."

For more, you can watch the full episode on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Castbox, Apple, or Amazon.

The protests, which marked the largest challenge to the Islamic Republic since its inception 45 years ago, began in September 2022 when Amini died after being arrested for allegedly failing to comply with Iran's mandatory hijab laws.

The UN fact-finding mission uncovered evidence of murders, torture, and rape that it categorizes as crimes against humanity during the Iranian government's crackdown on protesters in the wake of Amini's death.

Since the protests began, at least 550 demonstrators, including dozens of children, have been killed by security forces. The mission expressed concern over the government's intensified efforts to suppress the fundamental rights of women and girls and to crush the remaining initiatives of women’s activism.

The UN report highglihts the continued defiance of women and girls as a persistent challenge to Tehran, despite the subsidence of mass protests.

Since April 2024, Iranian authorities have escalated repressive measures under the so-called “Noor” Plan, which endorses human rights violations against women and girls who defy the mandatory hijab. The state has increased surveillance, employing drones and other technologies to monitor compliance with hijab laws in public and private spaces.

Amnesty International, in a statement released ahead of the second anniversary of the protests, echoed these concerns, highlighting the devastating impact of the Iranian authorities’ brutal crackdown on the “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising. Amnesty International emphasized the ongoing “war on women and girls,” pointing to an increasingly violent crackdown on those defying draconian compulsory veiling laws. The organization noted that the authorities have intensified their use of the death penalty to silence dissent, reflecting a broader assault on human rights and a systematic impunity for crimes under international law.

The situation has been exacerbated by the pending approval of the “Hijab and Chastity” bill, which proposes harsher penalties for women who do not adhere to the mandatory hijab, including substantial fines, extended prison sentences, restrictions on work and education, and travel bans.

The UN report highlights a troubling pattern of death sentences imposed on women activists, especially those from Iran’s ethnic and religious minorities, under national security charges. The regime has also increasingly used the death penalty and other harsh measures as tools to instill fear and suppress public dissent, the report read.

Both the UN and Amnesty International stress that meaningful accountability for these gross human rights violations remains elusive. The state’s continued impunity has left victims, especially women and children, unable to fully access their fundamental rights and freedoms.

The UN mission urged the Iranian state to immediately halt all executions of protesters, release all arbitrarily detained individuals—especially women and children—and abandon policies aimed at repressing women and perpetuating gender-based violence, such as the "Hijab and Chastity" bill.

Given the Iranian state's failure to hold perpetrators accountable, the Fact-Finding Mission has urged UN Member States to intensify their efforts to ensure justice for victims and their families.

In that vein, the report urged international governments to investigate and prosecute those responsible for crimes against women and girls during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, using universal jurisdiction and other legal mechanisms. It also recommended that states expedite asylum applications and offer humanitarian visas to individuals facing severe persecution, particularly women and children impacted by human rights violations in Iran.

The report is based on satellite imagery given to the institute by Western intelligence officials, who say that in the past 18 months, Iranian experts who were involved in Iran’s weapons-related projects in the early 2000s have been back at work at two secret sites.

The two sites, Sanjarian and Golab Dareh, were “central” to Iran’s alleged attempts to develop and test devices and systems that could be used to build a nuclear weapon, the report says.

It’s unclear if the recent activities at these two sites are nuclear weapons-related. But there’s room for concern, the authors write, given Iran’s significant progress in uranium enrichment and its lack of transparency, as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

US E3 warning

Earlier this week, the United States, Britain, France and Germany warned that Iran’s nuclear program could be referred to the United Nations security council within months if Tehran does not show more transparency to the UN nuclear watchdog.

The four Western powers accused Iran of failing to explain undeclared nuclear material and allow visits to alleged secret sites - activity the IAEA has said raises concern about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.

“This board has shown considerable patience. But that patience has its limits, and we will not stand by while Iran continues to obfuscate,” they said in a joint statement at the Board of Governors meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

'Further action'

“If Iran continues to fail to provide the necessary, full and unambiguous cooperation with the agency to resolve all outstanding safeguards issues, further action by this board will be necessary,” they added.

The statement cited the IAEA’s authority to act when a member state fails to demonstrate the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities and empowers it to refer the issue to the Security Council.

Iran maintains that its nuclear program is a peaceful scientific enterprise while top adversary Israel says Tehran seeks a bomb.

Tehran has been brought before the Security Council repeatedly from 2007 to 2010 and faced several resolutions condemning the program and expanding international sanctions.

JCPOA and its unmaking

After lengthy negotiations, Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent UNSC members plus Germany) reached an agreement in 2015 in a deal by which restrictions and more rigorous inspections of its nuclear sites was agreed in exchange for sanctions relief.

That agreement fell apart in 2018 when the U.S. administration under Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew and reimposed sanctions.

Other signatories remained in the deal, but Iran scaled back its compliance and limited access to its sites, barring several IAEA inspectors from returning to the country.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned earlier this week that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is on the rise.

Iran’s nuclear breakout time—the time needed to produce enough 90% enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon—has likely shrunk to "one or two weeks”, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in July.

Soltan's arrest is part of a broader crackdown on activists and victims' families just days before the anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death, which ignited the Women, Life, Freedom uprising.

It is not clear whether she is being held in intelligence detention at Urmia or Urmia prison according to her family, sparking further concerns for her safety.

"Yesterday, a relative received a call from an unknown number. A man was on the line, then handed the phone to my mother, Mina. My mother was only able to say one sentence that she is being held in Urmia," Soltani’s daughter Asrin Mohammadi told Iran International.

Shahryar Mohammadi was shot by Iran’s security forces in Bukan on November 18, 2022. He later died from his injuries after being transferred to a local hospital. His family including his mother, Mina Soltani, his sister Asrin Mohammadi, and brother Milad Mohammadi have since become outspoken advocates for justice and have faced continuous pressure from the Iranian authorities.

This is not the first time the Mohammadi family has been targeted by security forces. Last year, on November 15, just a few days before the anniversary of Shahryar’s death, his sister, Asrin Mohammadi, was arrested during a raid. Speaking to Iran International from an undisclosed location for her safety, Asrin described the experience as violent, stating:

"Just days before the anniversary, they [security forces] savagely stormed in. Right in front of my mother’s eyes, they beat me, they beat my mother, and then they dragged me away by force."

Asrin recalled the threats her family faced when her brother Shahryar was killed.

"On November 18, 2022, Shahryar was surrounded inside a car by military vehicles, and they opened fire on him. Milad [Asrin and Shahryar’s brother], while holding Shahryar’s lifeless body in his arms and refusing to let them take him away, had a gun pressed to his legs, and they shot him twice. Even then, Milad didn’t let go of Shahryar. This time, they injected Milad with four sedatives. They then threatened my mother, saying, 'If you don’t cooperate and let us bury him now, we will take Milad, kill him, and bury Shahryar in a place where you’ll never know.' They forced the mother to go with them. Milad, after months of living in parks and streets with infected and injured legs, was eventually forced to flee Iran. Now, this year, they have arrested my mother - a woman whose one child was killed, one injured and displaced, and another arrested,” Asrin Mohammadi said.

Soltani’s arrest is part of a broader crackdown by the Iranian authorities on victims’ families as the country approaches the second anniversary of the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, security forces attempt to stifle any potential unrest.

Last week, Iran's security forces arrested 16-year-old Ramyar Abubakri, brother of 21-year-old Zanyar Abubakri, who was fatally shot by state security forces on October 27, 2022, in Mahabad, Kurdistan. At the same time, security forces also raided the home of Siavash Soltani, son of 52-year-old Kobra Sheikhe-Saqqa, another victim killed by state forces on the same day in Mahabad.

UN’s Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran (FFMI) on Friday reported that between July and September 20224, “arrests and detention of family members of protesters killed in the context of the movement also intensified.”

“These arrests appear to be part of a broader State effort to stifle any potential form of dissent and to harass, intimidate and prevent victims, families and others expressing solidarity, from marking the second anniversary of the protests and the ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ movement,” the FFMI said.

The Islamic Republic has faced international condemnation for its handling of the protests and its treatment of detainees, with human rights groups expressing concern over the safety of slain protestors' families. The situation remains tense as the uprising anniversary draws near, with the possibility of further unrest and government crackdowns.

Iran’s government executed Yousefi in Nowshahr Central Prison after he was sentenced to death on drug-related charges, according to the Norway-based Kurdish human rights NGO Hengaw.

According to Hengaw, Yousefi, who was executed in the northern Mazandaran Province, graduated with a bachelor’s degree in physical education and worked as a Greco-Roman wrestling coach. Greco-Roman is a type of Olympic wrestling that involves upper body grappling, barring lower body attacks.

Hengaw wrote that “Hassan Rangraz, the head coach of the Iranian national Greco-Roman wrestling team, shared a picture of a letter from Morteza Yousefi addressed to the judiciary the night before the execution, urging the head of the judiciary to overturn the death sentence and reduce his punishment."

The explosion of executions for drug-related offenses in Iran prompted, in April, eighty-two Iranian and international human rights groups to demand that the UN agency on drugs and crime suspend its cooperation with Tehran until it ends the use of the death penalty for narcotics-related crimes.

In the early morning hours of September 12, 2020, authorities hastily hanged the innocent wrestler, Navid Afkari. In January 2021, Iran’s government also executed wrestler Mehdi Ali-Hosseini, who had been charged with pre-meditated murder, allegedly committed during a group brawl.

A global campaign among elite wrestlers sought to stop the execution of Afkari who was arrested in 2018 for participating in a protest in Shiraz against the Islamic Republic’s political and economic corruption. According to a widely discredited account by Iran’s judiciary, Afkari killed Hassan Torkman, a water company security employee and Basij member, who tracked demonstrators at the 2018 protest in Shiraz. Afkari declared before his execution: “There is not one shred of evidence … they are looking for a neck for their rope.”

The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said at the time that the authorities imposed sustained torture on Navid and his brother, Vahid, to secure phony confessions. Vahid is still incarcerated in Iran. The one organization that was positioned to save Navid’s life and secure the release of Vahid (a third brother, Hamid, was freed in 2022) was the International Olympic Committee (IOC). Yet the IOC and the United World Wrestling (UWW) organization failed to exert their significant leverage on then-President Hassan Rouhani to secure a stay of execution, according to sports experts.

“The IOC has clearly failed to uphold their duty of care for athletes. Navid was brutally executed for peacefully protesting. Athletes around the world called on the IOC to stand up against the Iranian Regime to protect Navid but they refused to,“ Rob Koehler, the Director General of Global Athlete, told Iran International. Global Athlete is an organization fighting to advance the human rights of athletes across the globe.

“With the death of Navid, the IOC had an opportunity to send a strong message by banning Iran from the Olympics - that did not happen as they always favor protecting authoritarian regimes over basic fundamental athlete and human rights," Koehler added.

Numerous Iran International press queries to the IOC and UWW were not answered.

Alireza Nader, an Iran expert, told Iran International on Afkari’s case, “The Islamic Republic should be suspended from all international sporting events until justice for the Afkari brothers is served and regime officials responsible for these crimes are brought to justice.”

Iranian-American lawyer Elika Eftekhari, who specializes in international sanctions, primarily drafted proposed US congressional legislation named the “Toomaj Act” after the incarcerated Iranian rapper Toomaj Salehi to punish Iran’s government. The bill was introduced into the House in late May and aims “to impose sanctions on the judges, prosecutors and investigators of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Revolutionary Courts.” According to the legislation, “Examples of victims of the Islamic Revolutionary Courts are plentiful.

Eftekhari told Iran International, “The Iranian people’s vigilant demands of justice for Navid and Vahid continue unabated, as can be seen by the fierce social support for the comments of their brother, Saeed Afkari following the death of President Raisi, in which Saeed confirmed their mother’s happiness at the news.”

She added, “In terms of accountability, first, there are sanctions, which should be put on all judges, prosecutors and investigators of the Islamic Revolutionary Courts, as the TOOMAJ Act calls for in the United States. But more importantly even, targeted sanctions policies of Western governments should change to include all immediate family members, to whom assets can be transferred, and can travel freely while their spouses and fathers execute innocent Iranians with false charges derived from torture.” 

Eftekhari said, “As for accountability, the IOC and UWW should raise more awareness and demonstrate their support for Navid and Vahid. This can take the form of official statements, awards and ceremonies named in honor of the brothers, observing a minute of silence for Navid, joining other organizations in calling for the release of Vahid, and refusing to award medals to Islamic Republic teams. This latter option provides an opportunity to both shame the regime, and make it face audiences disturbed by their human rights crimes. One thing we know for certain about the Islamic Republic is that it hates to be shamed or embarrassed in international forums.”