IRGC commander warns of retaliation if Israel attacks

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov issued the warning on Thursday, according to state news agency TASS, risking bringing Russia further into the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and its regional proxies.

Following Iran's ballistic missile attack on October 1, speculation is mounting that Israel could target Iran's nuclear, oil, or military facilities, as it has long threatened, although the US has warned that they will not support a strike on nuclear facilities.

Showing the ever deepening ties between Moscow and Tehran, Ryabkov said Russia has "repeatedly warned and continue to warn ... against even hypothetically considering the possibility of a strike on [Iranian] nuclear facilities and nuclear infrastructure".

On Wednesday, the Associated Press reported that the Biden administration believes it has secured assurances from Israel not to target Iranian nuclear or oil facilities.

A day earlier, The Washington Post reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had informed the Biden administration of his willingness to target military sites in Iran rather than nuclear or oil facilities, according to official sources.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted a "very close" alignment of views with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, raising fears of a wider regional conflict.

Iran has provided Russia with drones for its war on Ukraine, resulting in further sanctions for Tehran and the two have increasingly carried out military exercises together. Iran is also building a drone factory in Russia with its close ally.

This month, Tehran was further sanctioned for supplying ballistic missiles to Russia.

Iran and Russia, heavily sanctioned by the West, find themselves increasingly isolated on the global stage. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made it the most sanctioned nation in the world, surpassing even Iran.

Amid these sanctions, Iran is deepening long-term agreements with strategic partners like China and Russia, in alignment with Supreme Leader Khamenei’s "Looking East" policy.

The joint statement, issued on Wednesday during the first EU-GCC summit in Brussels, urges Iran to end its control of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa, islands claimed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) after it gained independence following Britain's withdrawal.

"We call on Iran to end its occupation of the three islands of the United Arab Emirates, Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa, which constitutes a violation of the sovereignty of the UAE and the principles of the Charter of the UN," the statement read.

Iran quickly dismissed the accusations. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, took to social media, condemning the joint EU-GCC statement. “The three islands have always belonged to Iran and will forever remain as such. Era of European malign 'divide & rule' interference in our region is long over,” Araghchi posted on X.

Iran asserts that the islands have always been part of its territory, maintaining that it has never relinquished ownership. On the other hand, the UAE contends that the islands were under the control of the Qasimi sheikhs throughout the 19th century, with these rights subsequently passing to the UAE in 1971.

The islands were placed under British control in 1921, but on November 30, 1971, just one day after British forces withdrew and two days before the UAE officially became a federation, Iran's then-monarch, Mohammad Reza Shah, dispatched the Iranian navy to seize control of all three islands. Iranian forces remain stationed there to this day, with Abu Musa being the only island with a civilian population, numbering fewer than two thousand.

Arab nations have frequently voiced support for the UAE's claims, but the EU’s backing of this stance marks a significant shift in European policy. The statement aligns with growing international pressure on Iran with sanctions being imposed globally for its ongoing nuclear program, rights abuses at home and ongoing support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also rejected the EU-GCC claims. “This is a clear indication of the member states' lack of commitment to the principles and objectives of the United Nations Charter, especially the principle of respect for national sovereignty and the territorial integrity of states,” Baghaei said.

Tensions over the islands have been exacerbated by international interventions. In June, China supported the UAE’s claims during a meeting with Emirati officials, prompting a rebuke from Tehran. Similarly, Russia’s backing of the UAE in December drew an angry response from Iranian authorities.

The joint EU-GCC statement also emphasized the broader security concerns linked to Iran’s regional actions with its proxies currently engaged in a joint front against Israel as well as enacting a blockade on global shipping.

The statement called for Iran to halt its advancing nuclear program, which has raised alarms over potential weaponization, and demanded a cessation of missile and drone production, citing threats to regional and international peace. "We stress the importance of ensuring the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program," the statement read.

Additionally, the statement underscored the need for Iran to comply with international obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Both the GCC and the EU expressed disappointment over the progress of Iran's nuclear program in the last five years.

“We regret that Iran’s unabated nuclear advances over the last five years have made a return to the JCPOA increasingly difficult,” the statement added, further urging Tehran to pursue regional de-escalation and non-interference in neighboring countries’ internal affairs.

This year, the head of the UN's nuclear program, Rafael Grossi, warned Iran is "weeks not months" away from a nuclear weapon, as Tehran has barred a third of their nuclear inspectors.

The blockade in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region has seen dozens of seamen taken hostage, four deaths and two ships sunk amid nearly 100 attacks since November 2023.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement: "US forces targeted several of the Houthis' underground facilities housing various weapons components of types that the Houthis have used to target civilian and military vessels throughout the region.”

The US is leading a more than 20-nation coalition to combat the blockade, with several operations being carried out alongside the UK.

“CENTCOM forces targeted the Houthi's hardened underground facilities housing missiles, weapons components, and other munitions used to target military and civilian vessels throughout the region,” a statement from CENTCOM said.

Iran has armed, funded and trained the militia for over a decade, allowing it to take over large swathes of Yemen in a civil war which has turned the country into the region's poorest suffering a critical humanitarian crisis.

A Saudi-led coalition has been fighting the group in a war which has left millions displaced and tens of thousands killed.

Earlier this month, the US carried out 15 strikes against Houthi targets amid the maritime blockade which was instigated by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in allegiance with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, at war with Israel.

It has since disrupted global shipping, sending global commodity prices soaring as vessels detour on longer, more time-consuming routes. Along with the Houthis, Iran’s proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq have joined the fight against Israel since Hamas invaded Israel on October 7 last year, sparking a region-wide conflict.

US CENTCOM said US Air Force and US Navy assets, including US Air Force B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers, were part of Wednesday’s operation.

“The employment of the B-2 bomber demonstrates US global strike capabilities to reach these targets, when necessary, anytime, anywhere,” said a statement. “Our battle damage assessments are underway and do not indicate civilian casualties.”

The US strike, coming as Israeli retaliation against Iran looms, may serve as a message to Tehran, signaling Washington's readiness to take military action based on its assessment of regional security needs.

Israel has also conducted multiple strikes on Houthi facilities in Yemen since October 7 as it continues to defend itself against missile and drone attacks Iran’s proxies.

On the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack which led to the death of at least 1,100 mostly civilians and saw 251 hostages taken to Gaza, the Houthis launched a surface-to-surface missile towards Tel Aviv, intercepted by Israel’s air defenses.

The poll, conducted by ISPA, the polling agency of the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), in May 2024 and recently released, surveyed students at government-owned universities in Iran. It covers a range of topics, including students' use of messaging services and social networks, as well as their consumption of music, movies, and TV series.

Based on the ISPA poll, 79.5 percent of Iranian students use messaging services and social media daily. Among the other daily activities of students are listening to the music (66%), spending time with friends (57.6%), athletic activity (21%), listening to podcasts (19.4%), watching movies and TV series (18.1%), reading books and eBooks (18%), and playing computer games (13.3%).

According to the poll, Iranian students spend an average of 233 minutes (nearly four hours) on social media and messaging services every day.

Telegram is the most popular messaging and social media platform among Iranian students, with 89.5% using it daily. The usage of other platforms is as follows: Instagram (85.7%), WhatsApp (66.7%), YouTube (50.4%), Ita (38.4%), Rubika (29.6%), Twitter/X (23.5%), Baleh (20.8%), Soroush Plus (14.8%), Facebook (10.9%), TikTok (9.7%), Clubhouse (5%), and Threads (4.9%).

The top four social media platforms, along with many others, are foreign services banned by the Iranian government and blocked by internet censors. To access these platforms, users rely on VPNs and other tools to bypass censorship. In contrast, Iranian platforms are not widely trusted, as the government maintains full control over data traffic. Iranians primarily use these domestic platforms for practical purposes, such as accessing government services, paying bills, and banking. This lack of trust explains why foreign platforms remain far more popular than the government-controlled Iranian social media sites.

Another ISPA poll conducted in September revealed that social media and messaging platform usage among the general Iranian population differs from that of university students. Instagram is the most popular platform among the broader population, with 56% of users, followed by Telegram (39.3%) and WhatsApp (33.3%). Among Iranian platforms, Ita and Rubika are the most frequently used, each with over 28% of users, excluding university students.

The poll results on the Iranian students' news consumption are inconsistent with most other studies including the one conducted by Gamaan Polling Agency in the Netherlands in 2021.

ISPA's poll indicates that Iranian websites, news agencies, and local social media platforms are the primary news sources for most Iranians. However, other studies, including the Gamaan poll, show that international social media platforms are Iranians' top source of news.

According to ISPA’s poll of 2,250 Iranian students, over 25% get their news from domestic social media platforms, over 20% from international social media, 12% from state TV, 8% from foreign-based satellite TV, nearly 5% from friends and peers, and less than 1% from newspapers.

In contrast, a Gamaan poll of over 27,000 individuals found that Iran International TV (33%) and Manoto TV (30%)—both London-based—are the most popular media outlets in Iran. The poll revealed that 92% of respondents rely on social media for news about Iran and the world, 41% on satellite TV, 32% on news websites, and 14% on Iranian state television for daily updates.

"(Authorities) criminalized any content that encouraged election boycotts or protests, or that criticized candidates ... (for) higher voter turnout to make the election seem legitimate, despite the arbitrary disqualification of most candidates," the group said in a report on Thursday.

The Iranian judiciary had warned that electoral laws prohibited candidates and their supporters from using foreign social media platforms, nearly all of which are blocked in the country, forcing the population to use Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) to bypass bans.

This was particularly evident in the lead-up to Iran’s snap presidential election, called after the sudden death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.

In June, the Iranian Press Supervisory Board issued a directive warning that violators of electoral rules would face severe punishment, including a sentence of 74 lashes.

The instructions specified that disseminating content aimed at “the boycott of the elections and the lowering of participation ... (or) organizing any form of unauthorized protest gathering, strike, or sit-in” would be considered a crime.

The election campaign involved a boisterous contest among the 80 registered candidates, six of whom were approved by Iran's unelected Guardian Council.

'Internet freedom repression'

The latest Freedom House report ranks Iran as the world's third most repressive country in terms of internet freedom, trailing only behind Myanmar and China, which jointly hold the first position.

Among Middle Eastern countries, Iran received the lowest overall score of 12 points on Freedom on the Net's 100-point scale behind Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

Iran has a long history of stringent censorship, blocking tens of thousands of websites over the past two decades. Traditional media, literature, and cinema are also closely monitored, with content assessed for compliance with Islamic principles and political loyalty.

During his campaign, President Masoud Pezeshkian had pledged to lift internet filtering - a promise that resonated with millions of Iranians.

However, Pezeshkian recently ordered the Supreme Council of Cyberspace to crack down on anti-filtering software, leaving his supporters confused and disappointed as many Iranians still depend on VPNs to connect with the outside world and conduct business.

Reformist political activist Hassan Asadi-Zeidabadi expressed his frustration on social media, posting on X: “I can’t understand the meaning of this order about anti-filtering software and how it can help the removal of filtering.”

Last year, Freedom House cited a significant decline in Iran’s internet freedom in 2023, largely due to the government’s intensified efforts to quash protests linked to the Woman, Life, Freedom protests of 2022.

Sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, the uprising was met with a violent crackdown and led to a marked drop in Iran’s internet freedom scores.