Days after Israel’s unprecedented air strikes on multiple military targets in Iran, media outlets in Tehran, think tanks, and some Iranian officials are now assessing the attack’s impact and implications.
This marks a shift from earlier efforts to downplay the significance of Israel’s operation and may reflect Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s directive to "neither downplay nor exaggerate the impact of the attack."
Meanwhile, Khamenei stated that it was up to other officials to determine how to respond to Israel. Several observers, including Iran International political analyst Morad Veisi, interpreted this as a sign that Khamenei was once again attempting to sidestep responsibility for a potential conflict with Israel.
In a Tuesday report, the pro-reform website Rouydad24 website in Tehran stated that Saturday’s attack has effectively ended the shadow war between Iran and Israel, raising the question of whether Iran is now prepared for open conflict.
The website quoted Mohammad Khajoui the director of the Lebanese Studies Group at the Middle East Strategic Studies affiliated with the Iranian Foreign Ministry as saying that it is still too early to answer that question.
The website noted that while some argue the attack inflicted significant losses on Iran, others see it as a mere show by Israel. Regardless, Rouydad24 asserted that both Iran and Israel now face an unprecedented situation, with the outcome still uncertain. It suggested that the direction forward may ultimately be influenced by the results of the U.S. election and any potential cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon.
Khajoui argued that both sides will try to magnify the importance of their own initiatives and to downplay the actions of the other side. This, he said, makes an accurate assessment of the situation difficult.
The Middle East expert explained that since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iranian politicians have been divided on how to approach Israel. One faction, driven by ideological beliefs, advocates for Israel’s elimination, while another believes that, as a Western-backed state, Israel could be controlled rather than destroyed. Ultimately, Iran’s political system settled on a strategy of empowering anti-Israel groups in the region rather than directly engaging in attacks against Israel.
Iran openly supported anti-Israeli groups, overlooking the fragile balance that risked escalating into full-scale war. Following Hamas’s October 7, 2023, incursion, Jerusalem sought to turn its setback into an advantage by weakening both Hamas and Hezbollah. However, as tensions escalated, Iran inched closer to direct involvement, leading to the current situation, Khajoui explained.
He added that Iran is unable to respond swiftly to Israel’s attack, placing Tehran in a difficult position as it was unprepared for the current situation. Meanwhile, all options available to Iran come at a high cost. Iran also recognizes that if it chooses inaction or steps back, Israel is likely to press forward. For now, Iran’s only viable approach is to await the outcome of the US election and a potential cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Iranian lawmaker Fada Hossein Maleki informed reporters that Khamenei has entrusted the Iranian armed forces with decision-making on how to respond to Israel. However, as analyst Morad Veisi noted, “Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, frequently deflects responsibility on challenging decisions, issuing ambiguous statements that enable him to sidestep blame if things go wrong.”
Based on the Iranian Constitutional Law, the Supreme Leader is the sole authority to decide on matters of war and peace, and he knows better than anyone else that he is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. So, in fact, he is handing over decision-making to himself, but tries to evade responsibility and blame others if his decisions backfire.
Maleki, a member of the Iranian parliament's national security and foreign relations committee, stated that Iran’s response to Israel would be determined with “prudence.” This remark suggests that Tehran may not be able to reach a decision as swiftly as some in the press might anticipate.
Speaking to Tasnim News Agency, Amir Aziz Nasirzadeh said: "The enemy attempted to damage both our defensive and offensive systems. However, due to precautions, there was minimal impact, and as you saw, there were no casualties or injuries in our defense industries.”
His comments come after the hours-long assault spread over three waves which targeted air defense systems, key Iranian industrial production facilities of missiles and drones, and missile launch bases.
Spread across Tehran, Kermanshah, Qom, Ahvaz, Shiraz, and the farther Semnan province, the operation involved around 100 aircraft.
However, playing down the impact, Nasirzadeh said: “Furthermore, since this technology is domestically produced, we were able to replace one of the air defense systems the very next day, so there has been no disruption in our offensive production capabilities, such as missiles." However, Israeli and other reports say Iran's Russian-made S-300 system was targeted, which is the main long-range interceptor missiles defending the country.
The Defense Minister also went on to dismiss claims that Israeli fighter jets had entered Iranian airspace. "According to the United Nations Charter, any country has the right to respond if its airspace is violated,” he said, suggesting that denials may avoid a necessary deepening of the conflict between the decades-long enemies.
He also denied damage to an IRGC missile facility in Shahroud while satellite imagery from Planet Labs showing a significant impact at the site that builds ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program.
So far, Iran only has identified Israeli attacks as taking place in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces — not in rural Semnan province where the base is located.
A strike on Shahroud potentially further restrains the IRGC’s ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic missiles it needs to stockpile as a deterrent against Israel. Tehran long has relied on that arsenal as it cannot purchase the advanced Western weapons that Israel and Iran's Persian Gulf Arab neighbors have armed themselves with over the years, particularly from the United States.
The site also hosts the Imam Khomeini Space Center, which is used by Iran’s space program. The images show a central, major building at the Shahroud Space Center have been destroyed, the shadow of its still-standing frame seen in the image taken Tuesday morning.
The imagery, seen by the Associated Press, showed vehicles gathered around the site, believed to be officials inspecting the damage, with more cars than normal parked at the site’s main gate nearby.
Three small buildings just to the south of the main structure also appeared to be damage, AP said. Iran has been constructing new buildings at the base in recent months. Another hangar to the northeast of the main building also appeared to have been damaged.
On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting, blamed the US for helping facilitate the logistics of the attack.
”Our intelligence indicates that Israeli fighter jets carried out this attack through a corridor facilitated by US forces," he said. "We have lodged our complaint with the United Nations and other international bodies and will continue to pursue this matter.”
Coordinating Deputy of Iran's Army Admiral Habibollah Sayyari also denied the penetration of Iran’s air space, reported first by Iran International.
“Thanks to the readiness and alertness of our air defenses and Air Force in a coordinated operation, the enemy was prevented from breaching our borders,” he said.
“They were forced to launch ballistic missiles from 100 kilometers outside our borders, many of which were intercepted by our defenses, though some did strike certain areas.”
One day after Iran International reported Israeli F-35s had entered Iran's airspace for the first time and bombed targets near Tehran, CNN reported that Israeli fighter jets entered Iranian airspace during the Saturday attack.