Iran International
Donald Trump’s maximum pressure policy was never aimed at regime change, his last special envoy for Iran told Iran International. It was about making a deal.
Achieving a comprehensive plan to halt Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions is likely the endgame for Trump’s second presidency, said his former special representative for Iran during the first Trump administration.
Elliott Abrams, a veteran hawk, told the Eye for Iran podcast that most people remember maximum pressure but do not properly comprehend what the goal was.
“For better or worse, it was not the overthrow of the regime,” said Abrams “His criticism of the Obama deal was that it was time bound, and it was not comprehensive. It didn't deal with Iran's missile program or Iran's support for terrorism.”
The president-elect is still striving for such a deal, according to Abrams.
The former Iran envoy fears Trump’s zeal for a deal could get him dragged into meaningless negotiations which buy Tehran time to advance its nuclear program.
Tehran
“Iran will trap him [Trump] in negotiations that will go on and on and on and on and on while they are trying to advance with their nuclear program.”
Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that they are prepared to cooperate with the United Nations nuclear watchdog. Araghchi made the remarks during a telephone conversation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s Director-Genral Rafael Grossi on Monday.
Trump’s former Iran envoy believes Iran's sudden willingness to cooperate with the IAEA after shunning its inspectors and boosting its uranium stockpile is all part of Iran’s plan to get the president-elect to the negotiating table.
Abrams sees some of Trump’s cabinet picks like senator Marco Rubio for secretary of state and Mike Waltz as national security adviser as guards against any feints by Iran. Both are seen as hawkish Republicans and long-standing critics of Iran.
“They have robust records of understanding Iran and understanding the evil of the regime. And so, they are obstacles to that happening, which is a very good thing,” he said. "I'm just hoping that people like Waltz and Rubio will say to the president when he becomes president again, this is the Iranian game. Don't fall for it.”
But the possibility of the president-elect being fooled is not inconceivable, according to Abrams, and the new administration will have some divergent voices such as Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s pick of director of national intelligence. Gabbard has expressed sympathy for the outlooks of Syria’s former ruler Bashar Al-Assad and Russian president Vladmir Putin.
“The regime in Tehran knows this and they're very clever and they will try to play off of this,” added Abrams.
The choices the Islamic Republic faces are difficult.
With Iran’s axis of resistance clearly on the backfoot after 14 months of Israeli attacks, the loss of its most important Arab ally Syria after Assad's swift collapse and Israel's destruction of Iran’s air defense and missile facilities in October leaves Tehran with little room to maneuver.
Will Iran decide to cooperate with the US and adopt a more dovish tack? It seems unlikely to Abrams, who also worked with George W. Bush on US policy in the Mideast.
This spanned the invasion of Iraq over the threat from weapons of mass destruction which were never found, leading to the deaths of thousands of American troops and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis in a war critics say sapped US influence abroad.
A dash to become a nuclear power is the more likely and worrying scenario, he said, cautioning that the Soviet Union’s nuclear status did little to stop its collapse.
Abrams said Tehran must now ask itself in the words of Henry Kissinger: “will they decide to be a nation rather than a cause?"
To watch the full episode featuring Elliott Abrams, watch Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Apple, Castbox or Amazon.
