Iran says it is not supporting or training Yemen's Houthis

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that the so-called Resistance Axis had succeeded in forcing Israel to retreat.

"Today, the world understood that the patience of the people of Gaza and the steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance forced the Zionist regime to retreat," he wrote on X.

"History will record that one day, a Zionist group, with the most heinous crimes, killed thousands of women and children and ultimately failed."

A ceasefire agreement between Hamas, the Tehran-backed Palestinian armed group, and Israel, mediated by the US, Qatar and Egypt, is expected to begin on Sunday.

The agreement stipulates the release of Israeli hostages held during the 15-month conflict, triggered by Hamas’s October 2023 attack, which devastated Gaza and resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians.

Iran's other armed allies in the region including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen joined the fight against Israel, and the Islamic Republic itself has twice launched missile fusillades against the Jewish State.

The dominant theme in nearly all statements from Iranian officials is the celebration of the resistance's victory against Israel.

This perceived victory is attributed to the resilience and steadfastness of the Gazan population, the majority of whom have been displaced.

"Peace be upon you for your patience. We welcome the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and salute the souls of the martyrs. It was this brave 15-month Palestinian resistance that thwarted the Zionist regime from achieving its strategic goals," Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, wrote on X,.

A statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) framed the agreement as a ceasefire imposed on Israel.

"The end of the war and the imposition of a ceasefire on the Zionist regime (Israel) is a clear and great victory for Palestine and a greater defeat for the Zionist regime," it said.

The IRGC also warned against any Israeli violations of the ceasefire and emphasized its forces' readiness to confront future conflicts, saying, "The resistance remains alive, thriving, strong... and has deeper faith in the divine promise of liberating the al-Aqsa mosque and Jerusalem."

Almost none of the Iranian statements detailed any specific achievements for Hamas, instead focusing on portraying the truce as a loss for Israel.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also issued a statement declaring the agreement a "historic victory for the Palestinians" and condemned the role of Western nations in supporting Israel and prolonging the conflict.

Hamas, designated a terrorist group by countries such as the US and UK, has been significantly weakened since Israel's relentless retaliatory action following Hamas's October 7 2023 attacks.

IRGC Deputy Commander Ali Fadavi declared the ceasefire a major victory because Israel was compelled to accept "all the conditions of Hamas and the resistance front."

Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mojtaba Amani said that Israel was forced to sign an agreement it had initially rejected, labeling it as a failure for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his efforts to dismantle the organizational structure and military capabilities of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad.

However, Sadegh Zibakalam, a former lawmaker known for his critical views, offered a contrasting perspective. "The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel hasn't even begun, and the Islamic Republic is already claiming victory. I wish they would define what victory means," he said.

He said US President-elect Donald Trump was to be credited with the ceasefire: “Netanyahu hasn't won either because the agreement is the same one they had reached before, but Biden couldn't stand up to Netanyahu. If there is a victory, it belongs to Trump, who was able to force the Israeli hardliners to agree to a deal."

Israel's acceptance of the deal would not be official until approved by the country's security cabinet and government, with a vote scheduled for Thursday, according to Reuters.

Netanyahu accused Hamas of making last-minute demands and reneging on agreements. Reuters reported that Gaza residents and authorities said Israeli airstrikes killed at least 70 people in the enclave overnight on Thursday.

In November, Hezbollah and Israel agreed to a 60-day ceasefire weeks after escalating conflict led to the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.

In October, Israeli forces also killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 attacks which killed around 1,100 Israelis - most of them civilians - and ensnared over 250 hostages.

Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the group's political bureau was killed in an Israeli bombing of his guesthouse in Tehran in August.

Western officials, including White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, have suggested that the conflict between Israel and the Iranian-backed "Resistance Axis" has significantly weakened Tehran.

However, the IRGC's top commander Hossein Salami stated last week that Iran's enemies are experiencing a "false sense of delight" regarding recent regional developments including the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Tehran’s longtime ally.

The report published by Tehran-based Aftab News website details a list of significant overdue, non-performing loans owed by bank customers and, in turn, the debts these banks owe to the central bank.

27 major institutional debtors who have borrowed from public and private banks collectively hold approximately 790 trillion rials (about $10 billion at the current free market exchange rate) in non-performing loans.

The loans were issued over several years when the Iranian rial held significantly more value, and with the tanking currency their actual value in today's terms is likely far greater than $10 billion.

A non-performing loan (NPL) is a bank loan that is subject to late repayment or is unlikely to be repaid by the borrower in full.

For instance, over a quarter of the total amount is owed by the Bank of Industry and Mines.

The bank's current CEO, Mahmoud Shayan, started his career as a junior employee at a branch of the National Bank serving religious seminary students in the Shiite holy city of Mashhad and rapidly climbed the ranks to serve as a board member of the National Bank and CEO of Bank Maskan, a real estate bank.

Even Iran's state-controlled media and officials have for years alluded to political insiders leveraging their influence to secure substantial bank loans through companies they or their associates control, often evading repayment obligations.

The largest entity indebted to the country’s banking system is the Middle East Mines and Mineral Industries Development Holding Company (MIDHCO), which has been under US sanctions since 2019.

MIDHCO’s chairman Majid Ghasemi is also the Deputy for Economic Research at the research center of Expediency Council, an official body staunchly opposed to Iran’s adherence to international anti-money laundering standards demanded by the global watchdog, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

The second largest banking debtor is Debsh Sabz Gostar, a tea trading company around which a $3.5 billion embezzlement scandal has swirled since 2023.

The third-largest debtor is state-backed automaker SAIPA, which was also active in Syria until 2023.

Following these are steel companies, including Esfahan Steel Company, which bears Iran’s second largest ever embezzlement case after Debsh Sabz Gostar.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) holds a nearly 50% stake in Khuzestan Steel Company, which is also implicated in the broader embezzlement cases of steel companies.

The companies are Iran’s largest steel producers.

The MAPNA Group, the largest electric power plant construction company in Iran, with close ties to IRGC is also the largest debtor to Pasargad Bank, Parsian Bank, and Bank Saderat.

Abbas Aliabadi, a former IRGC commander, served as MAPNA CEO until 2023, is currently the Minister of Industry.

Additionally, Ghadir Investment Company, under direct control of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose largest shareholders are entities affiliated with the armed forces, is listed among the 27 largest non-performing debtors in the banking sector, both directly and through its sanctioned subsidiaries.

This massive accumulation of non-performing loans by entities linked to the IRGC comes at a time when the banks themselves are facing significant financial losses.

According to the central bank, the accumulated losses of seven banks reached 540 trillion rials ($6.8 billion) in October 2024.

Notably, Pasargad Bank and Parsian Bank top the list, while they also rank the second and third in term of granting non-performing loans to the 27 major banking debtors.

Profiting from exchange rate volatility

Over the past year, the value of the US dollar has risen by more than half against the Iranian rial, and over the past three years, it has almost tripled.

Real estate prices in Iran have increased even beyond the dollar exchange rate, creating an attractive opportunity for insiders to secure loans from banks and invest in real estate and other sectors.

MIDHCO, the largest banking debtor, saw a 25% jump in investments during the past Persian calendar year ending in March compared to the preceding year, despite an economic crisis gripping the country.

The government itself, the largest debtor, has also intensified borrowing from domestic banks which in turn borrow from the central bank.

The latest central bank statistics reveal that government and state-owned enterprise debt to the central bank jumped by 65% in October compared to the same month in 2023.

Government and state-owned enterprise debts to the overall banking system saw an increase by more than half.

To offset budget deficits caused by reduced oil export revenues due to sanctions, the Iranian government borrows from domestic banks.

These banks, in turn, borrow from the central bank, which has caused their debt to the central bank to double over the past two years.

To cover loans to banks and the government, the central bank has resorted to extensive money printing, resulting in liquidity surges and runaway inflation which are set to only deepen the country’s economic woes.

Esmaeil Baghaei dismissed reports from the New York Times in November as "media storytelling and pure fabrication."

Officials from the Italian Foreign Ministry also said they had no knowledge of any connection between Musk and Sala’s release.

Iranian media reported that Baghaei also reiterated that there was no meeting between Ambassador Amir-Saeid Iravani and Elon Musk.

Cecilia Sala, a 29-year-old journalist and podcaster, was arrested in Iran last month on unspecified charges, despite holding a valid press pass. She was placed in solitary confinement, raising international concerns about her well-being.

A source familiar with discussions between Sala's family and the Italian government told Iran International that Tehran had tied her release to Italy’s handling of an Iranian detainee.

Iran suggested that Sala’s freedom was contingent on the release of Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi, a 38-year-old Iranian detained by Italian authorities at the request of the United States, according to the source. Tehran denies any connection between the two cases.

Following Sala's release, Najafabadi was also freed on Sunday by Italian authorities, according to Iran's Judiciary.

Speaking to students and faculty at Avicenna Tajik State Medical University on Thursday, Pezeshkian said, "We despise war and violence. From a medical perspective, anyone who engages in war likely has an issue in their brain; otherwise, humans would not fight one another."

Earlier this week, Pezeshkian told NBC News that Tehran is committed to peace and de-escalation, delivering a message likely aimed at the incoming US administration.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran is committed to peace and de-escalation in the region and globally. It condemns the Zionist regime's war-mongering, aggression, and genocide, and stands ready for honorable and equal negotiations," Pezeshkian said in an interview broadcast from Tehran on Wednesday.

Pezeshkian went on a two-day trip to Tajikistan, where Iran and Tajikistan signed 23 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) covering economic, political, cultural, educational, and trade cooperation.

The agreements, signed in the presence of Pezeshkian and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, highlighted both countries' commitment to strengthening bilateral ties, according to Iranian local media.

While visiting Avicenna University, Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon by profession, was awarded a professorship and an honorary diploma in recognition of his contributions to healthcare and public service.

The please comes amid international sanctions against Iran for its ongoing nuclear program, support of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and support of armed groups across the Middle East.

Tehran has also been sanctioned for its violent crackdown of protesters in 2022 which saw over 500 people killed by security forces following the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody for not wearing her hijab properly.

"Today marks the end of the war and the imposition of a ceasefire on Israel, a clear conquest and a great victory for Palestine, and an even greater defeat for the monstrous Zionist regime," the statement read as quoted by IRGC media Tasnim.

"It brings joy, vitality, and resilience to the people of Gaza as they return to their homes," the statement said, in spite of swathes of Gaza being turned to rubble since Israel's retaliatory offensive following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks.

A long-sought Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages deal emerged after an intense 96 hours of negotiations in Doha on Wednesday, brokered by US, Egyptian, and Qatari diplomats who persuaded Israel and Hamas to finally conclude the agreement.

The long-fought war has done nothing to secure more territory or freedoms for the people of Gaza, many of whom have no homes to return to and have suffered a humanitarian crisis.

Hamas, designated a terrorist group by countries such as the US and UK, has also been significantly weakened after the longest Gaza war since the group took control of the strip following a violent coup in 2007.

A senior Biden administration official credited the presence of President-elect Donald Trump's incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, as being critical to reaching the agreement announced.