After the quietest night since Iran began its retaliatory attacks on Israel on Friday, the former head of the Iranian strategic desk in Israeli Defense Intelligence, a branch of the Israeli military, told Iran International that Tehran’s missile stocks are running low.
Danny Citrinowicz, who now heads the Iran and Shia axis program at the Institute of National Security Studies, said that at the beginning of the war, intelligence estimates showed Iran had around 2,000 missiles.
But as Israel pounds both launchers and production facilities, Iran is unable to regroup in time to retaliate to Israel’s ongoing attacks, he said.
“Iran is having a real problem to produce large salvos. They are calculating now in terms of what’s left, and they still have supplies but they know it’s going to be a lengthy war.”
After several consecutive nights of bombardment that have destroyed numerous homes and resulted in 24 deaths, Monday was a quiet night.
A missile strike hit a factory and bus station north of Tel Aviv in the only reported case of an impact.
According to Israeli military, since the start of the military campaign, fewer than 400 missiles and hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles have been launched, causing approximately 35 impacts.
More than 647 people have been injured—with 10 seriously and 37 moderately—and nearly 19,000 damage claims have been filed, mostly for buildings. Additionally, 2,725 people have been evacuated from their homes.
Key commander killed
“With the air superiority of Israel and the assassination of the head of the missile program in the first surprise attacks, he will be hard to replace,” Citrinowicz said, referring to the death of Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the former commander of the IRGC Aerospace Forces.
“He headed last year’s April and October attacks on Israel and had so much knowledge and experience, and the trust of the top leadership, so while he was replaced, it would not be by someone like him with his caliber and expertise, and it’s taking a toll.”
Israel estimates 1,200 missiles left
Israeli estimates are that there are around 1,200 missiles left. “Iran can still have a war of attrition but they’ll have to calculate that. It will be very hard to launch 100-200 missiles at one time. They are under the superiority of Israel and can’t use a lot of launchers as Israel will hit them, and they are also launching in hiding,” added Citrinowicz.
“Israel has also hit the production hard. So what they started with, that’s what they have until the end of the war. Iran couldn’t have imagined such a thing would happen.”
“In the first blow, Iran’s senior leaders were at home. They didn’t see that coming and were very amateur. Iran is a one trick pony in terms of missiles. When Israel is really attacking facilities, it’s very hard for Iran to produce something dramatic and produce something to force Israel to stop the war.”
A Western intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Iran International that Iran's vulnerabilities are now on display.
"Iran’s capability is a paper tiger. This is why they created their network of proxies and why the regime so desperately want nuclear weapons," the official said.
"They are no match for Israel’s military firepower and defensive strength and Iran right now cannot risk dragging the US into war, so it will not attack US forces or facilities in the region," the source added.
Respondents were asked: "On the night between Thursday and Friday, Israel launched an attack against military targets in Iran. In response, Iran fired hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles at targets within Israel. What is your position?"
The results show a clear national divide between Jewish and Arab Israelis, the latter comprising 20% of the population.
“While Jewish Israelis largely see the Iran strike as unifying and justified even at high cost, Arab Israelis view it as divisive, dangerous, and diplomatically unjustified — underscoring a profound gap in public sentiment across Israeli society," the report said.
The research was carried out by Gayil Talshir and Nimrod Nir from the Department of Psychology at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
When asked, “Do you support Israel carrying out military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities?” 58% of Jewish Israelis expressed support for strikes even without US backing, 40% favored military action only with American cooperation, and 2% preferred a diplomatic approach.
Among Arab Israelis, 11% support striking Iran’s nuclear facilities even without American backing, 6% support military action only with US cooperation and 73% prefer a diplomatic route.
When asked, “Do you think Israel can completely destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and eliminate the military threat Iran poses to Israel without American military assistance?” 27% of Jewish respondents said yes, compared to just 9% of Arab respondents.
Only one-third (33%) of Jewish respondents say Israel should comply with US requests to halt the campaign if asked, compared to 78% of Arab respondents who believe Israel should stop the attacks to pursue an agreement preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Goal of Israeli attacks
Respondents were also divided on the campaign’s ultimate goal. When asked, “What should be the ultimate goal of Israel’s action against Iran’s nuclear program?”, only 14% of Arab Israelis supported a full military dismantling of Iran’s capabilities, compared to 56% of Jewish respondents.
The report surveyed 1,057 Israelis aged 17-86 on the attacks on Iran, what Israel calls operation Rising Lion.
So far, 24 deaths have been reported in Israel since Friday, with hundreds more injured, but speaking to Iran International, former military intelligence officer Miri Eisin, said the operation is going far better than could have been expected, with minimal casualties compared to what had been prepared for and massive gains, including taking control of Iranian air space.
Iran says more than 200 people have been killed since Friday amid extensive Israeli strikes, which have killed scores of the country's military leadership.
Even Israelis opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been supportive of the operation, seeing a changing sentiment towards the long-time premier.
US President Donald Trump on Monday issued evacuation warnings to Tehran, suggesting he will back Israel in its attacks in a bid to quash the threat of a nuclear armed Iran.
"Iran should have signed the 'deal' I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again!" Trump said in a post on Truth Social. "Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!" he added.