If the Islamic Republic falls, what’s next for Iran?

But is he truly preparing to loosen his four-decades grip on Iran?

Khamenei has named three senior clerics as potential successors in case he is killed during the war with Israel, the New York Times reported Saturday, citing Iranian officials familiar with his emergency war plans.

Last week, Iran International reported that the 86-year-old leader has delegated authority to the Revolutionary Guards’ high command, effectively empowering the IRGC to manage critical decisions if he dies.

While these steps fall short of a formal emergency decree, they suggest an extraordinary contingency effort as missile exchanges between Israel and Iran enter a second week. Khamenei’s move appears aimed at ensuring continuity of command in the event he is incapacitated or killed.

Defiant messaging, emergency measures

Following the leader’s line, President Massoud Pezeshkian also ordered cabinet ministers last week to delegate some authority to deputies and senior managers.

Yet even as both leaders brace for escalation, Khamenei struck a defiant tone on June 18.

“Normal life is going on in Iran,” he said, rejecting retreat in what appeared to be a response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.”

If the IRGC power-sharing reports are accurate, they could mark one of the most significant shifts in Iran’s post-revolution political order. For nearly four decades, Khamenei has centralized power—political, religious, military, and economic—around his office.

A legacy of control—and a quiet succession talk

Even Iran’s clerical seminaries, once independent and funded by religious donations, now fall under state control. Since 1989, Khamenei has turned clerics and seminarians into government employees, paid by his office and subject to dismissal if their loyalty is questioned.

As commander-in-chief, Khamenei exercises unilateral authority over military matters, bypassing the Majles on decisions of war and peace.

He also controls the state broadcaster IRIB, directing both leadership and editorial content. His office oversees several Tehran dailies and scores of newspapers nationwide—all part of a state-aligned media network.

Khamenei’s economic vision, framed around his concept of a “Resistance Economy,” has similarly concentrated power.

Though cabinet ministers exist, all major financial decisions—especially the annual budget—are dictated by his office. Massive state-linked economic conglomerates dominate the landscape and stifle the private sector.

In recent years, he has further sidelined parliament, issuing implicit directives that override legislation and block ministerial impeachments.

Succession has long been the Islamic Republic’s most sensitive—and unspoken—question. Few dared to discuss it openly. But in recent years, and especially in the current crisis, the topic has crept into public discourse.

Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, is frequently floated in both establishment and opposition circles, though never officially acknowledged.

The Israeli strikes have made the issue more urgent.

One can imagine the question of who—or what—comes next, and whether that includes a possible thaw with the United States, being debated in private among Iran’s ruling elite. But no one dares say it aloud. Not yet.

State television, dominated by ultra-hardliners, signaled escalation just hours after the attack.

“The Islamic Republic is no longer bound by red lines and considers all US military bases in the region legitimate targets,” ane anchor declared,

On platforms aligned with the regime, the rhetoric was even more aggressive.

“It is now our turn to act without delay,” wrote Hossein Shariatmadari, supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s representative at Kayhan newspaper.

“As a first step, we must launch a missile strike on the US naval fleet in Bahrain and simultaneously close the Strait of Hormuz to American, British, German, and French ships.”

'Beware the consequences'

But many moderate voices warned that such a drastic move would only place Iran in a more perilous position.

“Closing the Strait of Hormuz would drag neighboring countries—and even players like China and India—into direct confrontation with Iran,” journalist Ehsan Bodaghi posted on X. “Does our country have the capacity to endure that scale of conflict and hostility?”

Perhaps the most prominent figure to urge calm and foresight was former president Mohammad Khatami.

“All decisions, positions, and diplomatic or defensive actions must be taken with wisdom and long-term thinking, free from emotional reactions or a pure desire for revenge,” he was quoted as saying by reformist outlet Jamaran.

Economist and former official Reza Kashef echoed the call with a Gandhi quote: “True power lies in self-restraint and patience, not in hasty reactions.”

Ordinary Iranians silenced

A nationwide internet shutdown has sharply reduced the volume of public online discussion.

While insiders—hardliners, in particular—often retain privileged access, ordinary Iranians—and even moderate insiders—have been effectively silenced. The imbalance has further amplified hardline voices in the post-Fordo narrative.

“The main issue is that the US has officially entered a war with Iran, and Iran's deterrence will be lost if it does not respond strongly,” ultra-hardline MP Amir-Hossein Sabeti posted on X.

Abdollah Ganji, former editor of IRGC-linked daily Javan, was more specific—and dramatic.

Tehran’s actions should be withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, expelling UN inspectors and the silence. “This silence,” he posted on X, “will become the sound of a very powerful bomb explosion, and they will come to you with concessions.”

Activist Hatef Salehi posted a map of US bases in neighboring countries with the caption: “Which one should we strike first?”

Another reason such voices appear to have dominated in the past day or two is the risk built into advocating restraint.

Publicly questioning the wisdom of retaliation can be construed as contradicting Khamenei’s stance—and in the current wartime atmosphere, that carries serious consequences.

Still, some tried to tread the minefield.

“Most patriots don’t want to dampen the nation’s spirit during times of aggression,” prominent tech leader Nima Namdari posted on X. “But the realities of war … and our understanding of those in power make it impossible not to worry about the decision-making process.”

“So what’s the solution, really,” he asked, “should we just remain silent?”

The unprecedented step reflects the seriousness with which the 86-year-old leader views the current threat environment, as Israeli airstrikes continue to target Iranian military and nuclear assets.

Khamenei, who is now operating from a secure underground location and communicating through a trusted aide, has also named backups for key military positions in case more senior commanders are killed, the NYT cited the officials as saying.

“Ayatollah Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, also a cleric and close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, who was rumored to be a front-runner, is not among the candidates,” the report said.

The identity of the three clerics has not been disclosed, but the move is seen as an effort to ensure a swift and orderly succession via the Assembly of Experts if the supreme leader is assassinated or dies unexpectedly.

As Iran International previously reported, Khamenei was relocated to an underground bunker in Lavizan, northeast Tehran, shortly after the airstrikes began. His close family, including Mojtaba, are also at the facility. The transfer followed internal assessments of vulnerability at top levels of Iran’s leadership.

In a separate report, Iran International learned that Khamenei has delegated key powers to the Supreme Council of the Revolutionary Guards in what officials described as a wartime precaution, allowing critical decisions to proceed should the Supreme Leader become incapacitated.

Hezbollah chief said this week that the group will not remain neutral in the Iran-Israel conflict.

May Farhat reports from Beirut on hopes and fears of ordinary Lebanese.

Iran, long seen as a rising regional power, is contending with a new Middle East reality marked by evolving alliances, according to a Time magazine analysis published on Thursday.

The analysis said that while Iran's "Axis of Resistance" and its opposition to Israel have been central to its post-1979 revolutionary ideology, the recent conflict with Israel has shown a different dynamic.

Time suggests Iran's leadership prioritized "the preservation of the system," leading to continued investment in its nuclear program for survival.

The analysis pointed to wealthy Persian Gulf states increasingly aligning with Israel due to a shared animosity towards Tehran, a development exemplified by the Abraham Accords and Saudi Arabia's signals towards normalization.

This shift, Time concludes, outlines a new regional landscape where Arab nations are actively participating in intercepting Iranian missiles targeting Israel.