Azerbaijan Frees Iranian Truck Drivers, But Tensions Still Exist

Malley said that the real issue was whether Iran had “a realistic view on how to come back into compliance with the deal.” Malley's statement about too much focus on the date for resumption of the talks comes as both top US officials, such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and European powers have in recent weeks emphasized that time is running out.

At the same time, he also used a tougher tone, reiterating that the US is ready to consider “all options” if Iran were not willing to return to the constraints of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Vienna talks between Iran and world powers, which began in April, was initially suspended since June pending transition to a new administration in Tehran after presidential election won by Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi). But more than two months after the hardliner took office Tehran has not announced when it would return to Vienna.

In an interview with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Malley stressed the benefits of reviving the 2015 deal − the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action − while extolling the Biden administration’s cooperation with Israel and the Arab Gulf states, who opposed the deal.

Malley called the decision of former president Donald Trump to leave the JCPOA in 2018 “catastrophic.” He said that Iran’s steps in expanding its nuclear program since 2019 were ones “you could all reverse,” even if expansion would at some point be “irreversible.”

Calm things down

The envoy said a possible “longer and stronger” agreement with Iran could follow a revived JCPOA: “They [Iran] would like to get something more than the JCPOA…The best way forward is to get back to the JCPOA and then discuss ways of strengthening it and dealing with issues that remain very divisive between Iran and the United States. We think this would be to our mutual benefit, there are still things that Iran still wants in terms of sanctions and things that we still want…Let’s get back to the JCPOA to calm things down.”

Rather than expressing any toughening of the US position Malley said the Vienna talks accepted the JCPOA focus on Tehran’s atomic program: “That remains the equation, the equilibrium that remains on the table.”

The critics of the Biden administration’s Iran policy say that if the JCPOA is restored, without additional agreements and sanctions are lifted, Iran would have little incentive to discuss more restrictions on its nuclear, ballistic missiles or regional policies. Most JCPOA limits on Tehran’s nuclear activities will expire in a few years and then it could pursue a much expansive program.

Malley also said that the fate of four Americans jailed in Iran was “separate and apart” from the nuclear talks, on a “separate track.”

Discussions with Iran over the detainees were indirect, the envoy said, just like US participation in Vienna, where talks are based on JCPOA structures, which the US left under Trump. Malley conceded he found this frustrating.

“The Iranian refused direct communications, direct contact with us…[which] lends itself to misunderstandings, to delays…the negotiations would have been more effective had we been able to talk to the Iranians directly.”

But Malley insisted the Biden administration had offered confidence-building measures, and that all parties − Europe, Russia, China “and the Iranian negotiators themselves” – acknowledged “real progress” in Vienna. Malley said Washington continued to tell China that a revived JCPOA would help stabilize a region from which Beijing imported most of its oil.

A different path

Malley said it remained to be seen what path would be taken by a new Iranian administration “clearly stating that it wants to do things differently … [and] every day is making statements about how little was achieved” in Vienna.

“The Biden administration put on the table ideas which meant if Iran had negotiated, and reached this understanding, then sanctions…inconsistent with the JCPOA would have been lifted, and lifted very quickly,” he said. “That’s the choice Iran faces today: are they prepared to go back, or do they want to choose a different path?”

Malley said that close coordination with Israel and the Arab Gulf states − with the Saudi, Israeli and Emirati foreign ministers currently in Washington – recognized their “real reservations about the nuclear deal” and that Trump’s withdrawal had been “celebrated quite strongly in Israel.”

But Malley suggested that four rounds of Saudi-Iran talks and a “lively debate in Israel” were both positive developments.

“We will be prepared to adjust to a different reality in which we have to deal with all options to address Iran's nuclear program if it's not prepared to come back into the constraints [of the JCPOA],” he said.

The French foreign ministry also questioned the new hardline Iranian administration's commitment to salvaging the pact.

Enrique Mora, the EU's political director and EU coordinator in nuclear talks with Iran, is due to hold talks on Thursday with members of Iran's nuclear negotiating team almost four months after talks stalled between Iran and world powers, including the United States, to revive the 2015 deal.

"Through its statements and actions on the ground, the new Iranian administration of President (Ebrahim) Raisi raises doubts about its intention to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA)," French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre told reporters in a daily online briefing.

"While refusing to negotiate, Iran creates facts on the ground that further complicate the return to the JCPoA. It is therefore in a context of crisis and at a critical moment for the future of the nuclear agreement that this trip by...Mora to Tehran takes place."

The Islamic Republic has repeatedly said it will return to the negotiations "soon" without giving any sense of what that actually means. Western diplomats have tentatively said a return to the Vienna talks may be possible before the end of October.

Legendre added that Tehran would also need to be clear about its intentions should it come back to the talks.

Since then-US President Donald Trump ditched the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran, Tehran has been rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher levels of fissile purity, and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up production.

President Joe Biden aims to restore the deal but the sides disagree on which steps need to be taken and when.

Key issues include what nuclear limits Tehran will accept, what sanctions Washington will remove, whether there will be any guarantees and the prospect of follow-on talks on Iran's future nuclear program, regional and ballistic missile activities, diplomats have said.

"In line with recent regional and international consultations, I will host @eu_eeas Deputy Secretary General @enriquemora_ on Thursday," Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, who is expected to lead Iran's new negotiating team, said in a Twitter post on Wednesday.

"Exchanging views on bilateral & regional issues including Afghanistan, as well as talks on removal of cruel sanctions, are on the agenda."

Kamal Kharazi, who heads Khamenei’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations and was foreign minister 1997-2005 under reformist president Mohammad Khatami, told a website in Iran Wednesday that Tehran had no wish to interfere in Afghanistan’s internal affairs, if its interests were respected by the new rulers in Kabul.

Khamenei’s advisor mentioned Pakistan as the Taliban’s “main supporter,” and suggested that both Islamabad and the Taliban had an interest in Afghanistan’s new rulers moderating their behavior. Peace in Afghanistan and in the region could result if this happened, Kharazi said.

Iran cautiously accepted the Taliban takeover early on, hinting that the movement had changed since it controlled the country in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Tehran also saw United States withdrawal from Afghanistan as a strategic victory in its overall stated goal of ending the American military presence in the region.

Kharazi said Iran would closely watch events in the neighboring country for any signs of the reemergence of “terrorist groups.” Tehran regards both the Islamic State group (Isis/Daesh) and al-Qaeda as a danger for Shiites in general and Iran in particular.

He also called on the Taliban to curb drug smuggling to Iran, which has a porous border with Afghanistan. While some smuggled opium and other narcotics targets Iran, much is destined for foreign markets.

Kharazi most of all emphasized the security and rights of Shiites in Afghanistan. The Taliban have not been friendly toward Shiites, with dozens of bloody attacks against the community while they fought against US troops and the former Afghan government. Although some of these attacks went unclaimed or were attributed to the Islamic State, many in Afghanistan blamed the Taliban.

Iran “naturally has legitimate interests [in Afghanistan] that must be secured…[including] protection of the rights of Shiites and other groups and the preservation and the propagation of the Persian language, as part of the Afghan people’s heritage,” Kharazi said.

Given the Taliban are primarily Pashtuns, Kharazi’s concern for the Persian language is a defense of Tajik and Hazara communities whose mother tongue is Dari, an old and original dialect of Persian. Historically, Persian has been the main administrative and educational language in Afghanistan, benefitting from centuries of literature and scientific writings.

Kharazi emphasized that Iran’s policy toward Afghanistan would be “completely tied to the behavior of the Taliban.” If the new rulers “move toward an inclusive government, protection and security for all ethnic and religious groups, confront terrorism and adopt a policy of good neighborliness,” Iran was ready for cooperation and would assist Afghanistan with “all its experience and potential.”

Farhikhtegan, a daily affiliated with the Islamic Azad University, said Larijani, who was appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, preferred to allow the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) to shape Iran’s economic relations with Beijing.

While Larijani, 64, has neither confirmed nor denied the report, it appears that his long political career may be over. He has served in the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), as head of state broadcasting, as minister of culture, and as Iran’s top security official.

Farhikhtegan analyzed Larijani’s demise in terms of a simple dichotomy between west and east. The Rouhani administration had downplayed relations with "the east," the paper said, and instead had focused on efforts to improve links with Western countries, despite the imposition of United States ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions in 2018.

The Chinese government had not cooperated with the Rouhani administration due to its "coldness" towards China and "pro-west outlook in foreign policy,” Farhikhtegan explained. This “pro-west outlook,” the newspaper argued, had led to Rouhani emphasis on reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

"The Chinese during this time were prepared to cooperate with the Islamic Republic, but not with Rouhani's administration," Farhikhtegan wrote, claiming this led to Khamenei's decision to put Larijani in charge of developing the cooperation agreement.

The newspaper attached little importance to China being a JCPOA signatory and a supporter of its revival. Nor to the cooperation agreement being signed during the Rouhani administration.

Back in April, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif denied a claim that China had insisted on involvinga designated representative of Khamenei in the talks over the pact said and that he himself had suggested Larijani − a Rouhani ally in securing parliamentary support for the JCPOA − as a coordinator.

The strategic pact, the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, is linked to China’s Belt and Road strategy, which is expanding Beijing’s trading links across Asia to Europe, and envisages increasing Chinese investment in Iran over 25 years as Beijing continues as Tehran’s main oil customer.

Larijani has remained largely silent since the constitutional watchdog, the Guardian Council, did not approve him as a candidate in June’s presidential elections after it was reported he had a daughter living in the United States.

After Larijani was rejected by the council, Khamenei acknowledged during a televised speech that some disqualifications had been unfair. He referred obliquely to allegations made against family members of some candidates that "turned out not to be true."

Larijani supporters hoped in vain that Khamenei would intervene to reinstate Larijani, who hails from an influential Shia Muslim clerical family, as he did with two reformists in 2005.

The Saudi State TV that reported on the incident on Wednesday did not give indications about the target of the attempted attack, which was in the southern part of the Red Sea.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in talks since April to reduce bilateral tensions and possibly re-establish diplomatic relations. Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed this week that the conflict in Yemen was part of the talks.

Iran has been backing the Houthis with supplying weapons, Saudi Arabia , the United States and UN experts have said.

Reporting by Reuters

The coalition intervened in Yemen in March 2015 to try to restore a Saudi-backed, internationally-recognized government toppled by the Houthis in 2014. The war has caused what the United Nations describes as the world's biggest humanitarian crisis.