France Says If Iran Nuclear Talks Prove To Be 'A Sham', JCPOA Is Dead

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) 35-nation governing board is due to begin meeting on November 24 in Vienna, five days before talks are due to resume on reviving Iran's nuclear deal with global powers.

The IAEA has issued critical reports saying Tehran has not fully cooperated with its monitors, which could make it more difficult to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement known as JCPOA, under which Iran accepted curbs on its nuclear program in return for the lifting of international sanctions.

"As a responsible member of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has always emphasized that the IAEA's reputation as a technical and specialized body of the United Nations must be free of any political conduct," said an Iranian Foreign Ministry statement in a twitter feed.

Iran has in the past made similar statements when it has felt a danger of being criticized or censured for lack of cooperation with the UN watchdog.

French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre had said on Thursday that the watchdog's governing board should act, after agency reports highlighted issues over Tehran's nuclear program. Western nations say they fear it has military aims while Tehran insists it is purely peaceful.

According to IAEA reports on Wednesday, Iran had still not granted IAEA inspectors access it promised two months ago to re-install monitoring cameras at a workshop that was the site of apparent sabotage in June.

Legendre said Iran "must return without delay to fulfilling all its commitments and obligations to the IAEA, resume cooperation with the agency and return to full implementation" of the 2015 nuclear deal.

She did not clarify what she meant by a strong message. Diplomats have said it is unlikely Western powers would take action against Iran before the negotiations on reviving the nuclear accord resume.

Talks should resume between Iran and world powers in Vienna November 29.

Western powers scrapped plans in September for an IAEA board resolution rebuking Iran, after Tehran agreed to prolong monitoring of some nuclear activities and invited IAEA chief Rafael Grossi to Tehran for talks. Grossi is again due in Tehran ahead of the IAEA board meeting.

With reporting by Reuters

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre told reporters Tehran should “return without delay to fulfilling all its commitments and obligations…resume cooperation…and return to full implementation of the JCPOA.”

Talks aimed at reviving the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, should resume between Iran and world powers in Vienna November 29.

This will be the first round of talks with emissaries of the new administration led by President Ebrahim Raisi (Raisi). The United States, which left the JCPOA in 2018 and imposed ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions on Iran, will take part indirectly, as it did before the talks lapsed in June.

Grossi In Tehran Next Tuesday

While the IAEA would monitor a revived JCPOA, its director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi has more immediate concerns. The IAEA has confirmed that Grossi will be in Tehran for meetings Tuesday with senior officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.

Grossi has for two months requested such meetings to discuss current ‘temporary’ arrangements for IAEA access and what the agency says are questions left unanswered by Iran over past apparent nuclear activity in sites undeclared to the agency.

Grossi is keen to restore access to a manufacturing site in Karaj to service monitoring equipment, which Iran has not allowed despite a September 12 agreement.

The IAEA chief earlier this month told AP he was “flying in a heavily clouded sky.” The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Iran had resumed making parts for advanced centrifuges at Karaj, which the Journal said the IAEA had no knowledge of.

Irking France, as well as the two other European JCPOA signatories – Germany and the United Kingdom – and the US, were IAEA reports this week that inspectors had faced intrusive searches and that Iran had accumulated 17.7kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent, a jump from 10kg in under three months, and 113.8kg enriched to 20 percent, up from 84kg over the same period.

Under the JCPOA, Iran is allowed to enrich only to 3.67 percent. But since 2019, following US ‘maximum pressure,’ Tehran has gradually exceeded JCPOA limits, by using advanced centrifuges as well as by enriching increasingly close to the 90 percent regarded as ‘weapons grade.’

An interim nuclear agreement?

A further complication lies in reports of recent discussions over an interim agreement under which both the US and Iran would take steps towards a renewed JCPOA, the US by ‘allowing’ the unfreezing of Iranian assets currently held by third-parties in fear of punitive US action and Tehran by curbing some aspects of its nuclear program.

Axios news site reported Wednesday that US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had raised the prospect of an interim deal with his Israel counterpart Eyal Hulata, after it had been suggested by a European state.

Tehran’s pronouncements on JCPOA revival have stressed its commitment to reviving the deal as agreed in July 2015 rather than seeking interim steps or modifying it. But the JCPOA was itself preceded by an interim agreement, the 2013 Joint Plan of Action, under which Iran froze parts of its nuclear program in return for reduced international sanctions.

An interim agreement could postpone the need for agreement on a crucial difficulty facing negotiators in Vienna during talks April-June, that of agreeing which US sanctions contravened the JCPOA. Reports suggested Iran argued that all sanctions imposed by the Trump administration – whether on ‘nuclear’ or ostensibly other grounds – would need to be lifted.

The US and the GCC, which have a Strategic Partnership agreement, held a meeting of their working group in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Wednesday. A statement by the US State Department said the two sides “affirmed the longstanding partnership between the US and the members of the GCC”, as well as “shared determination to contribute to regional security and stability” in the Middle East.

But the two sides focused on “a range of aggressive and dangerous Iranian policies, including the proliferation and direct use of advanced ballistic missiles and Unmanned Aircraft Systems.” The statement said that these weapons have been by Iran or its proxies “in hundreds of attacks against civilians and critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and civilian merchant seamen in international waters of the Sea of Oman, and endangered American troops combatting ISIS.”

US allies in the Persian Gulf have been long concerned about Tehran’s belligerent regional policies and its expanding military and political influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, where they maintain and support tens of thousands of proxy forces.

The joint US and GCC meeting also “agreed that Iran’s nuclear program is of grave concern, as Iran has taken steps for which it has no civilian need but that would be important to a nuclear weapons program.”

As Iran has delayed the resumption of nuclear talks held earlier this year, the Biden Administration seems eager to offer assurances to its Arab allies in the region, which could also serve as a tough message to Tehran.

The Biden team came into office aiming to distance itself from the Trump administration’s tough approach toward Iran and its very close ties with Saudi Arabia and Israel. But as its attempts to reach agreement with Tehran to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) have so far failed, Washington needs to keep ties with traditional allies strong.

But the US and the GCC also appeared to be extending a carrot to Iran, urging Tehran to shift its long-held aggressive policies.

The State Department statement said the US and GCC believe, “Iran has a better alternative to these continued escalations and can contribute to a more secure and stable region.” GCC members briefed the meeting about their continued efforts to build diplomatic channels with Tehran and expressed hope that “these regional diplomatic efforts developing over time to promote peaceful ties in the region, based on a long history of economic and cultural exchanges.”

Saudi Arabia has held four rounds of talks with Iran this year, but Saudi officials have said while the meetings have been cordial and useful, they have not been substantive. The United Arab Emirates will also soon send a delegation to Iran.

In a tweet Bagheri-Kani said he had meetings with ambassadors of other countries in Tehran, including envoys of Persian Gulf, Mediterranean and East European countries on Wednesday.

He told ambassadors that the success of the upcoming multilateral talks to resume in Vienna on November 29 “depends on other side’s firm determination and practical readiness to remove sanctions.”

Iran has toughened its position in recent weeks demanding that the negotiations focus on the US lifting of sanctions and has gone as far as saying there would be no new talks over nuclear issues and other issues.

Iran’s official government newspaper on Sunday put forth five demands for agreement during the talks, including reparations for imposing sanctions by the United States and a guarantee that Washington would never withdraw from a future agreement.

Tehran's five demands represent an almost maximalist negotiating position that if it upholds could easily lead to a deadlock. Following each point in bold italics, Iran International presents a counter-point.

First, Iran not only will not allow any discussion on its missile program and regional conduct, but it will also refuse to have any negotiation over nuclear issues. “Iran will not enter into nuclear discussions, and it will thus block the West from tabling new issues,” the paper said.

Iran has stockpiled 113.8 kg of 20-percent and 17.7 kg of 60-percent enriched uranium, and it has deployed advanced centrifuges capable of much faster purification of the fissile material. It has gained knowledge and expertise it did not possess in 2015 when JCPOA went into effect. Without discussing such issues, talks cannot succeed.

Second, the United States as the party violating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, the 2015 nuclear deal), is in the seat of the accused and it is not even a participant in the Vienna talks, Iran Daily said. The US government should express regret over its past mistakes and pay damages to Iran and try to regain trust. The US has not taken these steps and even President Joe Biden by renewing the US National Emergency with Respect to Iran has shown its lack of interest in rebuilding trust.

Biden administration officials, who will be present in Vienna and part of the process indirectly, have already said that while former president Donald Trump’s decision to leave the 2015 nuclear deal was wrong, it would be politically unsustainable for the new administration to make a formal statement and pay damages to Iran.

Third, as part of its confidence-building measures the United States should refrain from categorizing sanctions and should lift all sanctions imposed during former presidents Donald Trump and Barrack Obama that violated the JCPOA.

Some US sanctions relate to Iran’s nuclear program. Others are related to terrorism, money laundering, illegal arms transfers, and human rights. The US has said it is ready to lift oil and banking sanctions related to the nuclear issues, but that it would be politically untenable for the administration to lift all sanctions. While clear in many cases, what does and doesn’t violate the JCPOA is in some cases part of the talks.

Fourth, removing sanctions needs verification over time. Since Iran sustained damages with US withdrawal from JCPOA and reimposition of sanctions, it should have sufficient time to verify that it can sell its oil and repatriate the proceeds. Iran is ready to accept the role of a neutral group in verification.

While Iran is demanding verification on sanctions removal, it says it is not willing to discuss any nuclear issue. The West is interested in securing effective verification of Iran’s nuclear program and in holding talks for the post-JCPOA era, when Iran will be largely unrestricted in its nuclear capabilities.

Fifth, Iran demands guarantees that the US will not again withdraw from the JCPOA. Once the US returns to the agreement, it could as a JCPOA participant use the agreement’s ‘trigger mechanism’ in a more “mischievous way” against Iran.

Biden cannot under the US constitution guarantee that a future administration might not leave the JCPOA, which is an agreement and not a ‘binding’ treaty. A treaty would require a two-thirds majority in the US Senate, and would be unlikely in the case of the JCPOA, although perhaps possible if linked to restrictions in Iran’s missile program and regional role, which Tehran has ruled out.