Woman Reported Arrested In Iran After Trampling On Cleric’s Turban

President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) recently submitted a budget bill to parliament that included eliminating the below-market exchange rate of 42,000 rial to the dollar for essential imports while increasing cash payments to citizens to compensate for any price rises.

Hamid Pourmohammadi, a senior economic policy official, told state television Monday that ending a special exchange rate for essential imports would increase inflation by just 7 percent.

Pourmohammadi, deputy head of the Planning and Budget Organization, told IRIB that higher prices for some daily purchases like bread would be compensated by increased government cash payments to citizens.But the amount of the additional payments mentioned by officials is only around $4 of cash handouts per month.

Inflation reports in recent month by the Statistical Center of Iran, a government organization has put the annual inflation rate at 45 percent.

Pourmohammadi argued that continuing to allocate dollars at a lower rate for essential imports would lead to a 28 percent jump in inflation, by forcing the government to print money to offset the fiscal losses caused by continuing high demand on foreign exchange.

The World Bank wrote last year that Covid-19 spending and “plummeting” oil revenue, due to the United States ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions that began in 2018, were taking Iran’s fiscal deficit to over 6 percent of GDP.

The subsidized rate − currently 42,000 rials to the dollar − has been in use since April 2018 - to hold down costs of imported food, medicine, and animal feed. The street rate stands at around 300,000.

There was only a single forex rate before 2018, when the government of President Hassan Rouhani introduced a subsidized rate of 42,000 after the rial fell to nearly 60,000 against the dollar in April 2018 as US president Donald Trump prepared to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

Critics say forex reform, although necessary, will push up the already high rate of inflation to a level above the tolerance of vast groups of Iranians and cause a major upheaval.

"People's patience with economic [hardships] is running out,” a commentary in the conservative Asr-e Iran website Tuesday said. “The Iranian people are under 'maximum pressure’ on their subsistence. The burden imposed on them over the years has gradually grown so heavy that increasing a feather on top will break their backs."

The commentary argued there should be no price increases: "Stop…weighing people down with new economic burdens. Otherwise, the number of people who have nothing to lose will increase next year and you are better than anyone aware of the catastrophic security consequences of such circumstances."

Hassan Sadeghi a labor activist said at a union meeting on Monday said, "In fact, the government wants to offset its budget deficit by increasing the forex rate [for importing essential commodities] to the level of the rate in the open market. The pressure of this move will fall on the lower income classes and workers.”

"I believe lawmakers should be asked why they take up plans that will cause the closure of people's limited ways for communication … when economic problems affecting people's subsistence are serious and a [high] percentage of people live in poverty," Parvaneh Salahshouri told the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) Monday. The outspoken female politician also drew attention to other ideological legislation parliament is toying with, instead of tackling issues such as 50-percent inflation and increasing poverty.

If approved in its current form, the controversial cyber regulation bill entitled ‘Legislation to Protect Cyberspace Users’ Rights’ will result in broad restrictions on social messaging platforms.

The proposed law requires foreign social networking and messaging corporations to appoint an Iranian representative and agree to comply with Iranian laws and regulations. To be licensed, such companies would be required to register subscribers and provide this information to the authorities.

Such a demand would most probably end up in blocking Instagram which is widely used by many large and small businesses. Other major social media apps, such as Facebook, Telegram, and Twitter are already blocked but are widely used through anti-filtering software.

Critics of the bill suggest it could undermine small businesses, with Iranians making at least 400,000 purchases daily through Instagram and the blocked Telegram.

Iran has been blocking thousands of websites and social media platforms since the early 2000s, both for religious and political reasons.

The Parliament's plans to restrict access to social networks could also hugely deprive opposition politicians of platforms to publish their views in the absence of free press.

Salahshouri noted that currently much of what people know about what lawmakers comes from the uncensored content available on social media. "How can we know what is [really] happening if this space is shut down?' she asked. "The necessity of eliminating this space [for dissemination of uncensored news and criticism] for them is evident."

The Parliament's own research arm tasked with improving the proposed bill warned the Special Committee to Investigate the Cyber-Regulation Bill last week that the proposed bill violates several articles of the Constitution.

In a letter to the Committee, the head of the parliament's Research Center said it has found major issues with the proposed law and its consequences including "deepening of the distance between the people and the regime" and "encouragement of the elite to emigrate."

The former Communications Minister Mohammad-Javad Azari-Jahromi in June warned that the proposed legislation would cause popular discontent instead of establishing 'cyber-sovereignty' as its advocates have claimed.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has repeatedly called for more assertive control of cyberspace. "All countries manage their cyberspace but in our country some [officials] take pride in letting the cyberspace loose," he said in his speech on March 21. "There's nothing to be proud of in this."

He has also repeatedly criticized slow progress in launching a regulated national intranet network, the National Information Network (NIN), which is a system of control over internet access and content, blocking websites and social-media platforms deemed religiously or politically unacceptable.

One day earlier a journalist in Iran tweeted that Rouhani met with Ali Khamenei for one hour in recent weeks. So far there is no official confirmation or denial about the report.

Paris-based analyst Reza Alijani told Iran International TV on Monday that a group known as "the wise men" including Rouhani, former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, former conservative lawmakers Morteza Nabavi and Mohammad Reza Bahonar, and others, have warned Khamenei about the dire situation of the economy and called for reaching an agreement with the West, particularly the United States, before the economic crisis endangers the regime.

One more source who is in Iran related a similar account of the meeting.

The same group was assembled in late 1980s and urged Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini to end the war with Iraq and reduce tensions between Tehran and Washington to save the regime.

At the time, Khomeini disbanded the group but took their advice, admitting that it was a "chalice of poison" he had to drink.

Alijani told Iran International TV that Rouhani communicated the group's message to Khamenei in his recent meeting with him, but Khamenei also ordered the group to stop their meetings. However, it is not yet known if he accepted to consider the group’s suggestion. Nonetheless, Alijani observed that during recent days, Iran has been withdrawing from some of its hardline positions in the nuclear talks.

Alijani mentioned that Tehran has accepted to allow the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA to reinstall cameras in a nuclear workshop in Karaj. Tehran has also stopped mentioning its demand for lifting all US sanctions first for talks to continue, and its rhetoric about a US guarantee not to withdraw from the agreement again.

However, everyone in Iran, as well as politicians and negotiators abroad are convinced that it is Khamenei who makes the final decision about the nuclear issue and other political matters in Iran.

Alijani said that Iran is in a “state of emergency” as far as the country's economy is concerned. Nonetheless, Khamenei might insist on his hardline positions and may not accept a settlement although the West has agreed to lift the JCPOA-related sanctions and accepted to limit the discussions to Iran's nuclear program.

Under economic pressure, Khamenei has to make some sort of compromise and return the nuclear program to where it was before the 2018 US pull-out, but he might still choose the worst-case scenario of carrying on with his non-compromising positions, which would lead to “a catastrophe for the Iranian nation”, Alijani maintained.

In the meantime, Iran’s economy is in its worst situation since the 1979 revolution and the new Iranian government led by staunch hardliner Ebrahim Raisi has brought the economy to a standstill partly because six months after his election, neither he nor his government know who is in charge of the economy. His minister of economy is said to be on the verge of being impeached by the parliament for failing to sort out the crisis.

The meeting was disclosed by Mohammad Mohajeri, an editorial-board member of Khabar Online website, in a Sunday tweet. "Even if no news gets out about the content of the recent one-hour meeting of Hassan Rouhani with the Supreme Leader, the news itself bears an important message for politicians, whether [they belong to the] right, or left, or are hardliners, etc.," Mohajeri noted.

Mohajeri's tweet was immediately picked up by several publications and social-media pundits ready to pronounce the encounter a success or disappointment for Rouhani.

Some media detected a possible signal that Khamenei would appoint Rouhani to a leading position, such as chairman of the Expediency Council, a post assigned to Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani after he stood down as president in 1997 and currently held by Sadegh Larijani, the former chief justice.

Under fire

Others saw the meeting as the leader recognizing the work of Rouhani, who has been under fire from principlists in government and parliament in recent weeks, with some parliamentarians arguing he should be put in trial.

Mohajeri did not give a date for the meeting. Javad Emam, a reformist politician, told the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) that “sources close to Rouhani” had spoken of a meeting "a few weeks ago." Emam said to ILNA that the former president had told “friends” he was “very pleased with the meeting with the leader and their talks.”

Emam further suggested that the meeting − which he claimed Rouhani's critics had tried to prevent − could have related to talks in Vienna to revive Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Rouhani regarded the agreement as the first step to a wider expansion of cooperation with European powers but was stymied when the United States left the agreement in 2018 and imposed ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions.

"The gentlemen [in power now] admit that the experiences gained from the previous talks [under Rouhani] are now being used and are very useful,” Emam said.

Drained coffers

Ali Hassanloo, editor of the reformist Eslahat Press website tweeted Sunday said Khamenei had not offered Rouhani a new position: "Firstly, Rouhani had requested the meeting with the Leader. And it wasn't a good meeting either and Mr Khamenei criticized him for the conditions in which the government was handed over [to new president Ebrahim Raisi], particularly drained government coffers. No position was on offer either although Rouhani expected to be given the chairmanship of the Expediency Council.”

There were reports that Rouhani felt “humiliated” during Khamenei’s last meeting with outgoing ministers, in July, which lasted 17 minutes during which Khamenei offered no words of thanks but spoke only of other matters such as "the goals and fundamentals of the Revolution.” Khamenei pointed out that Rouhani had erred in "investing hope in the West and trusting it,” especially in economic policy. “You lingered there and could not progress," Khamenei reportedly said.

A similar meeting with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his cabinet members in 2013 lasted five hours during which Khamenei praised the outgoing government, although his relations with Ahmadinejad had long been sour.

Alizadeh made the comments after watching a concert in Tehran’s Vahdat hall, which opened its doors to people after a 22-month hiatus due to Covid-19 restrictions.

Alizadeh highlighted that even the Taliban is gradually opening Afghanistan’s music conservatories.

He appreciated solidarity among the Iranian artists, saying, “If music is being insulted, we are all being insulted.

His criticism was apparently a reaction to recent remarks by Iranian lawmakerKazem Mousavi, who said Western musical instruments should not be allowed in an Islamic country, noting that that anyone who desired a different lifestyle should leave Iran.

According to the head of Customs Administration Iran has classified musical instruments – along with sunglasses and over a thousand other commodities -- as luxury items and banned their import.

In a meeting with Culture Minister Mohammad-Mehdi Esmaeili on Thursday, firebrand cleric Ahmad Alamolhoda criticized artists in Iranfor feeling entitled.

“They should be asked what they have done for the Islamic revolution” said the staunch supporter of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is the father-in-law of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi.