Despite US Pessimism, Iran Officials And Media Upbeat On Nuclear Talks

The diplomatic process involves the slow and indirect route via the three European countries in the talks, and possibly others, carrying messages back and forth between American and Iranian negotiators.

In an interview published by reformist website Etemad Online on Tuesday, December 28, a former Iranian diplomat and nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian has said that the United States might show flexibility on some matters in direct talks.

Mousavian argued that the United States will not give any concessions to Iran through mediators. Direct talks will lead to fewer misunderstandings and a quicker pace in negotiations.

The former diplomat, who lives in the United States and is a visiting scholar at Princeton University, maintained that Iran's decision to hold indirect talks with America is “understandable at this juncture,” but this will delay reaching results. On the other hand, Iran's experience in more than a decade of negotiations with the United States indicates that even if America is prepared to give concessions, it will not do so via mediators.

Elsewhere in the interview, Mousavian revealed that while he was ambassador in Germany in the 1990s, he and other European ambassadors had orders to try to de-couple Western Europe from the United States in matters related to Iran. But he stressed that the strategy of "Europe without America failed," adding that "the United States is much more powerful than Europe, and in fact, the United States is the leader and Europe follows it."

Mousavian asked, " Did Russia, China and Europe fulfil their commitments under the JCPOA after the United States pulled out?" and answered: "No country in the Eastern or Western bloc stood by its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal."

He also maintained that all countries attach more significance to their ties with the United States than to their relations with Iran. He said, "Other countries are not there to serve Iran's national interests. Instead, they try to serve their own national interests." Why should China cut off its several hundred-billion-dollar economic ties with the United States” when its trade with Iran is a fraction of that?

Meanwhile, Mousavian maintained that no US administration will fully implement the JCPOA. The reason for that is that our problems with the United States are not limited to the nuclear issue. Unfortunately, Iran does not have any powerful lobby in the United States. The Islamic Republic government's ability to use the potential of Iranian-Americans is below zero, Mousavian said. Nonetheless, he stressed that a good agreement could lead to the full implementation of the JCPOA.

He also pointed out that Saudi Arabia and Israel continue to oppose the revival of the JCPOA and want the United States to discuss issues beyond the nuclear issue with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

During the interview, Mousavian repeated recent accusations in Iran’s government-controlled media that France is playing an obstructive role in the negotiations. He even added that in 2014, it was the United States that stopped France when Paris put forward excessive demands.

Expressing his support for direct talks with Washington, Mousavian said: "We reached the same conclusion in the early 2010s and realized that after ten years of negotiations with world powers minus America, we did not get anywhere. And then, after one year of negotiating with America we reached an agreement to which the other five world powers also agreed. We cannot change the history."

“The working group on nuclear issues held a useful meeting,” Mikhail Ulyanov, Moscow’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, tweeted. “We observe indisputable progress. Sanctions lifting is being actively discussed in informal settings.”

‘Informal’ may refer to talks involving the United States, which takes part indirectly in Vienna, where the latest round began Monday after a pause of ten days. The United States left the Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), in 2018 and is outside its formal structures.

E3: Negotiation ‘Urgent’

A more downbeat assessment came from the three western European JCPOA signatories – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The ‘E3’ issued a statement Tuesday afternoon suggesting a point was being reached “where Iran’s nuclear escalation will have eliminated substance of JCPOA.”

The statement said that while technical progress had been made in the previous round of talks, there was only “some weeks” rather than months to agree on how to restore the JCPOA. The E3 said it was “not setting [an] artificial deadline for talks.”

The E3 argued that Iran’s expansion of its nuclear program since 2019, breaking JCPOA limits in its level of enrichment and the technology it used, was making the 2015 deal redundant.

"We are clear that we are nearing the point where Iran's escalation…will have completely hollowed out” the JCPOA, the statement said. “The negotiation is urgent − and our teams are here to work swiftly and in good faith towards getting a deal."

Lifting sanctions

Possibly in response to the E3 statement, Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported that technical experts from Iran and other JCPOA parties had been working in Vienna on “mechanisms to verify lifting sanctions against Iran and to minimize the possibility of [another] US withdrawal from the JCPOA [if renewed]."

"The Vienna talks are headed in a good direction," Iranian Minister Amir-Abdollahian said in comments to reporters broadcast by state media. "We believe that if other parties continue the round of talks which just started with good faith, reaching a good agreement for all parties is possible."

Israeli prime minister Neftali Bennett that any nuclear agreement with Iran should be tougher than the JCPOA, which limited Iranian uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent, well below the 60 percent Iran is now achieving.

"We are not the bear who said 'No,'" Bennett told Israel's Army Radio, referring to a character from children's literature. Israel, which holds a considerable nuclear arsenal, has consistently opposed the JCPOA, arguing restrictions on Iran should be tighter, and is widely held responsible for a series of attacks on Iran’s atomic facilities.

"For sure there can be a good agreement,” Bennet said. “For sure. We know the parameters. Is that expected to happen now in the current dynamics? No. Because there needs to be a much firmer position."

Bennett declined to comment specifically on reports that Israel is developing further capacity for attacking Iran, including allocating $1.5 billion. He said he preferred to "speak little and do a lot."

"We are not the bear who said 'no'," Bennett said in an interview with Israel's Army Radio, referring to a popular naysaying character from children's literature.

Israel prefers a more result-oriented approach, he said.

"For sure there can be a good agreement. For sure. We know the parameters. Is that expected to happen now in the current dynamics? No. Because there needs to be a much firmer position," he said.

"Iran is negotiating with a very weak hand. But unfortunately, the world is acting like Iran is at a strong point."

Bennett declined to comment on Israel's military strike capabilities against Iran, saying he preferred the approach of "speak little and do a lot".

On Monday, Iran and the United States resumed indirect talks in Vienna on salvaging the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with Iran focused on one side of the original bargain, lifting sanctions against it, despite what critics see as scant progress on reining in its atomic activities.

Report by Reuters

Russia’s top negotiator, Mikhail Ulyanov said negotiators would intensify the “drafting process” of an agreement.

Mora chairs formal meetings in Vienna, which Monday began an eight round in attempts to restore the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Mora also coordinates with the United States, which takes part in Vienna indirectly after leaving the JCPOA in 2018.

Mora told a news conference the process was focused on “both tracks in parallel,” referring to the central challenge dogging the talks since they began last April – that of agreeing which US sanctions contravene the JCPOA and how Iran’s nuclear program should be brought back within JCPOA limits.

"We are working on both tracks in parallel,” Mora said. “We are not working on one side and forgetting or neglecting the other. On the contrary, both tracks are mutually reinforcing.”

Mora expressed optimism that "if we work hard in the days and weeks ahead, we should have a positive result.” But he added: “I will not speculate on target dates to reach agreement, [but] we are talking about weeks not months to reach an agreement.”

‘Business-like discussions’

After a formal meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission Monday, in which the US does not participate, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and leading Moscow’s team ream in the talks, said participants had “held business-like and result-oriented discussions.”

China’s IAEA ambassador Wang Qun had said earlier in the day, before formal talks began, that there was “a greater sense of urgency of the part of all parties.”

Ulyanov said the JCPOA signatories had “in particular…agreed to intensify the drafting process in order to achieve an agreement as soon as possible.” Restoration of the 2015 agreement would require an agreed plan to sequence steps taken by both Tehran and Washington.

While US officials have drawn attention to Iran’s expanding atomic program – particularly with enrichment far beyond the 3.67 purity allowed under the JCPOA – Tehran has emphasized both the removal of American sanctions and the need for assurances that Washington would not renege on a renewed JCPOA.

Focus for Tuesday

Ali Bagheri-Kani, Iran’s lead negotiator in Vienna, said after the JCPOA Commission meeting that he expected discussion on Tuesday to focus on Tehran’s proposals for verification of the lifting of sanctions, with expert groups looking in particular at US measures aimed at Iran’s banking sector that have restricted Iran’s ability since 2018 to sell oil and repatriate the proceeds.

A seventh round of the Vienna talks, the first since new Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) took office in August, ended ten days ago after Iran presented written proposals, which some suggested undid understandings reached before talks were suspended in June for Iran’s presidential election.

Mora said he had decided to reconvene talks today, between Christmas and New Year, so as not to lose time. But he said that there would be another break for three days as of Friday "because the facilities will not be available” in the boutique hotel where the main meetings take place. The five-star 19th-century Palais Coburg was also the venue for the signing of the JCPOA in 2015.

The new round of the JCPOA Joint Commission is underway behind closed doors at the Palais Coburg on Monday evening. The commission is comprised of diplomats from Russia, China, Germany, Britain, France and Iran plus a European Union representative, the signatories to the agreement, which the United States left in 2018.

Minutes before leaving for the hotel, Iran’s top negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani expressed hope about the results of the talks, saying that he is optimistic about this leg of the negotiations.

Before the official start of talks, Bagheri-Kani had meetings with the heads of Russian and Chinese delegations as well as one with EU coordinator Enrique Mora. Other participants also held meetings in various smaller formats.

Bagheri-Kani also met with the French representative after about a week of harsh rhetoric by Iranian media about France sabotaging the talks.

Iran's foreign minister had earlier criticized Paris for taking "unconstructive" stances in the talks.

"Today all parties have agreed to come back to activate the eighth round of negotiations even in Christmas and New Year's holiday. This in itself fully shows a greater sense of urgency on the part of all parties concerned," China's top envoy Wang Qun told reporters before the talks start.

The parties will discuss US sanctions-lifting and Iran's atomic commitments in parallel despite comments by Tehran and Beijing suggesting sanctions would be the focus, the talks' coordinator said.

"We are working on both tracks in parallel ... We are not working on one side and forgetting or neglecting the other. On the contrary, both tracks are mutually reinforcing," European Union envoy Enrique Mora, the talks' coordinator, told a news conference.

Russian envoy Mikhail Ulyanov twitted, “We discussed possible ways ahead at presumably final round of negotiations on restoration of the JCPOA” after a meeting with the EU coordinator.

Ulyanov also said, "This morning the delegations of Russia, China and Iran met to compare notes” before the official start of the 8th round of the plenary meeting.

Iranian and US officials don’t meet face-to-face, so other parties must shuttle between the two sides.

The seventh round of talks, the first under the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi, wrapped up 10 days ago with some new Iranian demands added to a working draft. The progress seemed to be too slow while the Western powers said negotiators had "weeks not months" left before the 2015 deal becomes meaningless.

Formally, the three European states, known as the ‘E3,’ have called on the US to withdraw sanctions incompatible with the JCPOA, and they have urged Iran to return its nuclear program, expanded since 2019, to JCPOA limits.