China’s Oil Imports From Iran, Venezuela Hit 3-Year High

Referring to the sizable number of security and military officials working for President Ebrahim Raisi as top managers, she said, "Raisi is just a front man. There are others who puppeteer him from behind the scenes and influence his decision-making." She said, "I hope I am mistaken, but if this is true, Raisi is going to be blamed for his aides' mistakes."

Faezeh hashem is the daughter of Iran's former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was a close collaborator with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but later fell out of favor whne he supported protesters in 2009.

Meanwhile, Hashemi said Iran has been involved in killing some 500,000 people in Syria. Pointing out Iran's involvement in killing Muslims in Yemen and elsewhere, she said it is highly unlikely that Israel has killed 100 to 200 thousands Palestinians. "We have killed more Muslims than Israel with our wrong policies," she said.

In an interview with the news website Didehban-e Iran [Iran Monitor], published on Monday [January 10], she said IRGC officers who have joined the Raisi administration as his provincial governors-general cannot help him solve the country's problems. She also charged that Basij militia and IRGC officers are placed in cabinet ministers' offices to control them. She warned Raisi that in this way, he is going to have more problems in the future.

Hashemi, who spent time in jail as a political prisoner, shocked many in April 2021 when she praised Donald Trump and Iran’s last monarch, Mohammad Reza Shah.

Hashemi criticized the government's economic policies and said that Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, who has been working in an organization confiscating people's properties throughout his career, cannot understand the importance of privatization and economic reforms as the leader of Raisi's economic team. "There is no bright prospect for Iran's economy," she said.

She further criticized the appointment of inexperienced officials to key posts and said, "Corruption is not limited to financial corruption and astronomical salaries. Appointing incapable individuals to key posts will lead to corruption."

Hashemi’s criticisms of Raisi’s appointments are shred by many observers and politicians, some even from the country’s conservative camp.

Speaking about some government officials who usually suggest that people should tolerate hardships, Hashemi said: "OK. We will tolerate, but first we need to know where we are going. Are we tolerating the hardships to reach freedom? Good economy? Justice? Development? Or what? Unfortunately, there is no prospect ahead of us."

Criticizing Khamenei's policy for increasing Iran’s population, she said, he should have first assessed why there is a decline in population growth. Perhaps people do not want more children because of economic hardships. She added, there is nothing wrong with men and women living together without getting married, but she said she detested the idea of some men getting married to more than one woman.

To hardliner lawmakers who wish to impose an ideological lifestyle on Iranians, she said: "They are reckless. Iran is not North Korea." Speaking about other ideas such as only female doctors being allowed to treat female patients at hospitals, Hashemi said "these are Taliban-style policies."

In another part of the interview, Hashemi said the presidential election that brought Raisi to power was odd. "Everything was pre-planned for his election and anything that could possibly prevent his election was taken out of the way."

Speaking on the impact of sanctions on the Iranian economy, she said: "Sanctioned have caused essential problems, but the impact of mismanagement is bigger. If it were not for mismanagement, we would have not been sanctioned in the first place."

With 174 in favor and 76 against, the bill proposed for the Iranian year starting March 21 will go through further examination in the budget committee tasked with reconciling differences and improving details.

The major issue expected to impact the population is the elimination of an indirect subsidy the government pays to make imports of essential foods and medicines cheaper amid high inflation for the past three years. Importers of essential goods receive US dollars at roughly one-seventh of the free market rate.

The scheme was launched as Donald Trump’s administration prepared to leave the Obama-era nuclear agreement (JCPOA), throwing Iran’s economy off the hinge by threatening sanctions. As the national currency began to fall in early 2018, the government fixed the rate for US dollars at 42,000 rials for importers of essential goods. The rial kept falling to the current level of around 280,000 to the dollar.

The government spent at least $10 billion dollars a year to finance the subsidy and when President Ebrahim Raisi came to office last August his administration began signaling that it would stop the subsidy.

As talks to restore the nuclear agreement and lift US sanctions dragged on in 2021, Iran’s economic crisis worsened to the point that financing the subsidy apparently became a problem.

In the meantime, annual inflation reached almost 50 percent despite the subsidy. Many now fear that lifting it would further fuel price rises for the very commodities that ordinary people need most.

Many lawmakers in the Sunday session opposed the move, but it seems the die is cast. However, opponents fear that removing the subsidy will especially fuel inflation in food prices, which have already topped general inflation. In recent months the cost for food increased between 60-70 percent compared with last year.

Politicians inside the regime and pundits fear that people will not tolerate any further price increases, and that can lead to unrest and threaten the regime. Even if US sanctions are lifted in the next few months, it would take a long time to bring inflation down. Salaries have woefully lagged behind inflation and workers from all sectors are demanding substantially higher wages. Salaries must be at least doubled to save the middle class from poverty.

A typical worker gets around $120 to $200 a month, while rents and other daily necessities have risen with the fall of the national currency, keeping pace with the value of the US dollar. Mehdi Asgari, a lawmaker warned during debate that “Ten million families have fallen below the poverty line” and stopping the subsidy will bring about a shock to many who would not be able to afford even “bread and cheese.”

At the same time the budget bill proposes to raise taxes for generating 62 percent more revenues. Lawmakers warned that this would stifle whatever production is left in the country.

President Ebrahim Raisi who attended Sunday’s parliament session said, “It is not possible that we would eliminate the preferred exchange rate without finding a way to ensure people’s livelihood.”

The government has been promising cash handouts to lower classes to help them cope, but the amounts mentioned are a few dollars a month.

Asgari, the lawmaker who opposed eliminating the subsidy, gave a “serious warning” to the president, saying that people cannot afford “such a high inflation.”

The rial fell to around 305,000 against the US dollar in early December as prospects for an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program dimmed in Vienna. Tehran has been negotiating with world power since last April to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) that limited its uranium enrichment in exchange for lifting international sanctions.

On Sunday the US dollar was trading at 278,000 rials in Tehran’s non-official currency exchanges which reflect the street value of the currency.

Since the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and imposed its own sanctions, the rial began falling with little support, as Iran lost most of its oil exports. It fell from 34,000 in late 2017 to 305,000 one month ago against the dollar.

It is not clear if rial’s partial recovery is supported by government intervention in the market or is purely psychological due to more optimistic statements by diplomats that the Vienna talks are making headway. If an agreement is reached, most US economic sanctions will be lifted providing Tehran with desparately needed foreign currencies.

Political observers in Iran and abroad are waiting to see how true is the alliance between the hardliner government and the likeminded "revolutionary" parliament.

During the past weeks, many observers, including some prominent lawmakers have been criticizing the budget bill, characterizing it as " incoherent, risky and chaotic." According to moderate-conservative new website Khabar Online, the issue of doing away with the preferential rate of exchange of 42,000 rials per US dollar will be the focal point of the differences between the Majles and the administration.

This is the rate by which the government allocates dollars for importing essential commodities, such as basic food staples and medicines. The government is planning to cut what is regarded as a subsidy, except for buying wheat and medicine. The result is expected to be further inflation that some fear an end to the patience of low-paid Iranians who could launch protests.

In November 2019, a hike in fuel prices immediately led to nationwide protests that ended with security forces using military ammunition to kill at least 1,500 unarmed people.

According to Khabar Online, critics at the Majles say this is a high-risk budget bill that is not likely to curb the rising poverty rate in Iran. The lawmakers also fear that higher prices might prompt potential voters not to support them in the next election. The administration's daily newspaper, Iran, however, dismisses any criticism by the Majles simply as tactic by lawmakers for extracting concessions from the administration and share the power with the executive.

Raisi has said that he does not believe subsidizing essential commodities can help the country survive the current economic crisis. His critics at the Majles argue that the government should not try to bridge its huge budget deficit at the expense of the people. They further suggest that Raisi should start to reform the country's administrative structure.

Many parliamentarians have pointed out the perils of doing away with the preferential rate of exchange, and Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has said that "the problem is not money, it is about not having good governance and not getting the people involved in the country's management."

Meanwhile, experts at the Majles Research Center have said that the budget for the year starting in March has a deficit between 3,000 to 6,000 trillion rials. They called on the government to reform its economic and administrative systems.

Meanwhile, as moderate conservative Aftab News website pointed out, Raisi's economic team does not appear to have a roadmap for the country's economy. Like many other media outlets and politicians, Aftab News has also highlighted the lack of coordination among the members of Raisi's economic team.

During the past six months when Raisi was putting together his team, many in and out of the Majles warned him about the danger of having people from different walks of life and little experience in managing the economy as a team.

Khorasan daily pointed out in September that the members of this team come from many different offices and that they have never worked with each other before. Most of them never had challenging executive jobs and have been simply spending hefty state budgets at their disposal in their previous posts.

Hardline lawmaker Elias Naderan has said that lack of coordination among the members of Raisi's economic team is a major cause for concern. Naderan also called on Raisi to announce who is in charge and who determines policy. Another hardliner economist, Ahmad Tavakoli also criticized the lack of coordination in an interview with Sharq daily and warned that "The people can tolerate high prices and inflation only up to a point.”

Videos published on social media on Saturday show groups of workers on strike and protesting in front of the provincial offices and departments of the Judiciary in several cities.

Quite ironically, the protesters are chanting slogans asking for justice.

There are also reports of strikes by judicial staff and judges in capital Tehran that is expected to last about a week.

In some cities, the employees of the Judiciary have started to resign from their jobs en masse, with photos of their collective resignation letterscirculating in twitter.

The nationwide protests were triggered following the rejection of a special plan to increase salaries for the judiciary staff by the parliament a few days ago.

People with different professions are holding regular protest rallies to demand better work conditions and salaries with teachers holding the largest number of demonstrations.

Food prices have risen by more than 60 percent this year, on top of high inflation in the previous three years. Government figures show that prices for 83 percent of basic food staples have reached a critical level. People living on salaries have cut back on consumption of nutritious food, such as meat, fruits and dairy products.