Iran International
Two former Iranian presidents had a meeting with a former parliament speaker and the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini sparking speculations in Tehran.
Former presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami, who met recently with the other two figures, were presidents for a combined period of 16 years.
While Rouhani is a centrist within the political paradigm of the Islamic Republic, Khatami is a top leader among reformists. Ali-Akbar Nategh-Nouri, a third prominent figure in the meeting, lost to Khatami in the 1997 presidential election but remained parliament speaker at the time.
Khomeini’s grandson, Hassan Khomeini does not have a notable political record, but carries a last name which inevitably draws a measure of respect from regime supporters.
The meeting has sparked speculations as to whether the four prominent figures came together to discuss politics and perhaps chart some sort of joint plan of action given the country’s multiple crises and the hegemony of hardliners.
The most interesting aspect of the meeting is Rouhani’s participation. He has kept a low profile since he left office in early August and has made no political comments. However, the four politicians have kept silent about the purpose of the meeting.
Javad Emam, a person close to Khatami, however, told local media that the meeting was not related to any political-organizational matter. “Mr. Khatami might hold similar meetings but [reports] about such meetings being related to organizational matters and future elections are not true.”
This careful statement still leaves a lot of room to speculate and wonder what two former presidents, a former parliament speaker and a Khomeini grandson discussed.
Emam added that Nategh-Nouri is considered a conservative and he could not be involved in discussions of what reformists might plan to do.
But from a different perspective, it might be more interesting that a centrist (Rouhani), a reformist (Khatami), and a traditional conservative opposed to current hardliners come together and hold a meeting.
Iranian politicians, who are not at the helm of power any longer, and many commentators have been loudly warning that the country and the Islamic ruling regime are in a precarious situation. The economy is in a four-year crisis because of US sanctions. Talks with the United States to resolve Iran’s nuclear issue and remove the crippling sanctions have led nowhere after more than nine months of talks in Vienna.
President Ebrahim Raisi, who assumed power last year, with the full backing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s supporters, is already in political trouble, having solved none of the country’s pressing issues. Not only critics and commentators, but also the hardliner parliament is pursuing the impeachment of four of his ministers.
In this highly volatile political environment, the meeting between four non-hardliners is bound to lead to speculations, although many would say that all four are worn out figures, who do not have the degree of credibility they might have had 5, 10 or 20 years ago.
Crisis after crisis and a steadily worsening economic situation in the past 12 years have left no insider politician untouched in Iran.
Former Iranian presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami had a meeting with a former parliament speaker and the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeni sparking speculations in Tehran.
Hashemi-Taba told Aftab News in Tehran that increasing economic pressure on people has led to social abnormalities and Iranians are feeling that authorities are not responsive to their demands. This can lead to a new wave of protests, he warned.
Hashemi-Taba said that there has been a lot of pressure on the Iranian middle class during the past few years and some sociologists even say that the middle class has been eliminated. As a result, the remaining affluent class have are facing the poor and this can have dangerous consequences.
"The problem is not simply one of class differences. The problem is that people are frustrated and there is no bright prospect for the future. When people are poor and frustrated at the same time, this means that they have nothing to lose," Hashemi-Taba said.
He said one of these consequences is migration from the villages to the marginal areas of large cities. He added that the problem will not be solved by distributing small handouts. "Giving away bread coupons will not solve the problem” he said.
He highlighted protests by workers from various sectors of the economy and asked how long people can remain patient. He also criticized officials who ignore the volatile situation and make statements to please top leaders, adding insult to injury.
Meanwhile, reformist lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian has told Ensaf New, a media outlet he owns, that Iran's current situation is similar to the former Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc in the final years before the collapse of Communism.
He said there are many lessons for decision-makers in Iran such as the collapse of Communist governments in East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Rumania and Bulgaria. There are many lessons in the history of that period for "the dictators, totalitarian rulers and those who are sure of themselves and think they are the only ones who know the truth."
The lawmaker made the comments after the picture of a book about the fall of the Soviet Union on his desk at parliament became controversial. The book was Revolution 1989, The Fall of the Soviet Empire (Victor Sebestyen). He also quoted the Koran as advising the people to go around the world and see what became of those who oppressed the people.
Pezeshkian said, he reads that book when he does not need to participate in parliamentary discussions, adding that he has also read other books during session, including Why Nations Fail (D. Asemoglu and J. A. Robinson) and the Narrow Road to Freedom (Michael Leitman) as well as religious books.
Pezeshkian said Eastern bloc countries failed because of the wrong behavior of totalitarian their totalitarian leaders. When rulers create dictatorships, societies tend to become chaotic. In such a situation, as soon as the government is weakened the society will rise and this leads to chaos and massacre, he argued.
Since 2018 Iranian cities have experienced major protests and the government's crackdown on protests led to hundreds of deaths as security forces fired military weapons into the crowds and often shot people to death at point blank range. During the latest protests in Iran in November, security forces used shotguns against farmers protesting the government's mismanagement of water resources, often shooting them in the face. During protests since 2017, “Death To the Dictator” has been a recurrent slogan by angry demonstrators.
In an interview with the conservative news website Nameh News, Mohammad Mohajeri said, "Some statements made by the government's supporters enrage the people," adding that "When people become angry their demands will increase, and this is costly for the government."
Hardliners recently often highlight multiple crises Iran faces, as a way to say that Raisi’s job is hard, and people should be patient. But the negative comments reflect badly on the regime itself, which many people see as incompetent.
Mohajeri was also talking about cases such as a lawmaker who told people not to listen to music or buy musical instruments and to leave the country if they don’t like the restriction. Other cases include statements by Labor Minister Hojjat Abdolmaleki who said he is not responsible for creating jobs.
Other examples of outrageous statements by hardliners include Mashad Friday Prayers Imam Ahmad Alamolhoda saying those who criticize clerics in the government should be punished for throwing stones at the prophet or the cleric who said on the state television that every Iranian couple should have 14 children. Even Supreme Leader Khamenei's chief political adviser Ali Akbar Velayati said people in Iran should wear aprons like the Yemenis and eat nothing but dried out bread.
Mohajeri said: "Some of the government supporters want a change in the people's lifestyle to reduce pressures that are being exerted on Raisi to solve [the current economic] crisis. But theseremarks prompt the people to have a negative attitude toward the government."
"Some of those who make such statements about people's private life are the members of the ultraconservative Paydari party who say these things only to milk the government. They are telling the government indirectly: Give us our share [of wealth and power]!" and we will defend you, said Mohajeri.
Another group of supporters are Raisi's uneducated friends, he said. "They think they are helping the government by making those outlandish remarks, but they are not aware that these statements backfire and will make Raisi’s weak government even weaker," he said. "We know that Raisi was elected in a low-turnout election and enjoys very little social support."
The third group, said Mohajeri, are Raisi’s real supporters. "They make these comments deliberately as they think they are still campaigning in the elections. What they do is magnify problems they say the previous government created” and blame the Rouhani administration for the country's multiple crises. “What they ignore is that the Raisi has been in office for six months now and the people are more likely to lash out at his administration for shortcomings," Mohajeri argueded, adding that sometimes claims made by this group are not true in the first place.
The commentator added that these three groups have different intentions. Yet the outcome of what they say is the same because whatever they say will eventually weaken Raisi, while he may not realize this and think that they are exerting pressure on his political rivals.
"There is an expiration date for comments that blame the previous government for the country's problems. After a while, nobody will believe them,” Mohajeri noted, as people tend to demand solutions from those who are in charge.
"Blaming the previous government will only increase people’s anger. And when they are angry, they demand things more insistently, and this will be even more costly for the current administration," Mohajeri stressed.