Raisi ‘Answer’ On Direct US Talks Feeds Confusion In Iran And Abroad

The deal for the joint project was signed on Tuesday by Deputy Road Minister Kheirollah Khademi and his Azerbaijani counterpart Rahman Hummatov.

Astarachay is a small river that defines part of the border between Iran and Azerbaijan.

Khademi described the construction of the bridge as an important part of the International North–South Transport Corridor that is a multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road route for moving freight across India, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia.

He added that the Astarachay Bridge will be about 100 meters long with a width of 31 meters and connects the Iranian city of Astara near the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan’s capital Baku.

The agreement was inked while Iran’s Road Minister Rostam Ghasemi is visiting Azerbaijan to follow up on the implementation of several joint infrastructure projects.

The two countries are also increasing their military cooperation as Azerbaijan’s defense minister was in Tehran upon an invitation by the Islamic Republic’s military.

Earlier on Tuesday, Colonel General Zakir Hasanov held a meeting with Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Bagheri.

The two commanders called the meeting constructive in boosting military ties between the two neighbors without any further details.

Rahman Ghahramanpour, a foreign policy expert in Iran says despite the possibility of Iran and the United States starting direct talks about the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal, he still believes it is more likely that the two sides reach an interim agreement for two or three years.

He said there is every indication that an agreement between Iran and the United States is imminent, but he also warned that nothing is certain yet. He argued there are serious problems that may not be resolved within a month.

Rouydad24, the website that has published the interview with Ghahramanpour says such an agreement could materialize within a month. The optimism by the moderate website coincides with a statement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh who said on Monday that talks in Vienna have had good progress and many disagreements have been resolved.

Another indication of a slight positive tilt in Iran’s posture was Khatibzadeh's quick response about releasing US prisoners in Iran saying it could be dome quickly if Iranians jailed in the US for sanctions violations are also freed.

In the meantime, commentators in Iran have noted that official remarks about possible direct talks with the United States have not raised typical objections by hardliners.

Referring to some Friday Prayer Imams who wholehearted supported and praised expansion of relations with Russia and China, Mohammad Mohajeri, a conservative commentator observed that hardliner pundits who were opposed to direct talks with America have been conspicuously silent after Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian said that direct talks between Tehran and Washington would be possible.

Khabar Online website in Tehran drew attention to a tweet by Hadi Mohammadi, a reporter close to the Iranian foreign ministry, in which he said: "The Foreign Minister cancelled a Monday morning news conference after he was called to a meeting with high-rankling officials [Islamic Republic's jargon that means Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei]." The reporter noted that the meeting was about the nuclear negotiations.

He noted that the outcome of that meeting was quite a few vital decisions including holding direct talks with the United States. He also said that the nation should await new developments, but declined to elaborate.

Khabar Online also wrote about former hardline nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili's "mysterious silence." Jalili is believed to be the arch enemy of direct talks with America.

Meanwhile, reporters in Tehran also quoted Mahmoud Abbas Zadeh Meshkini the spokesman for the parliament's national Security and Foreign PolicyCommittee as having said, "We can have direct talks with the Americans if they show goodwill." Foreign Relations Reporter Ameneh Mousavi wrote that this is probably an indication that a permission has been given to Iranian officials for limited direct talks.

Other Iranian reporters noted the change in the slant of IRGC's Javan newspaper which for the first time talked positively about direct talks in a front-page headline. And reformist commentator Sadegh Zibakalam wrote in a January 25 tweet: "Negotiations with the United States are not as important as whether regime insiders, or outsiders are going to do it."

Reporters in Iran and abroad noted that a shift has occurred in Iran's approach to negotiations with the United States. They also noted that official opposition to direct talks has imposed a high cost on individual Iranians for a long time.

"This negotiation is urgent, and progress has not been fast enough. We continue to work in close partnership with our allies, but the negotiations are reaching a dangerous impasse," Truss told parliament.

The statement from the British foreign secretary comes as the American negotiating team seems to be in disarray, with the second man in charge leaving the team and two other members also reportedly quitting.

The Wall Street Journal in a report Mondaysaid sources close to the US negotiating team have stated that Richard Nephew, an architect of previous economic sanctions on Iran, and two other members of the team have left due to disagreements over Special Envoy Robert Malley's soft posture towards Tehran in the current negotiations.

"Iran must now choose whether it wants to conclude a deal or be responsible for the collapse of the JCPOA (nuclear deal). And if the JCPOA collapses, all options are on the table," Truss told parliament.

The United States and its European allies in the talks have been warning since early December that time is running out for an agreement with Iran, which is fast enriching uranium and getting closer to a nuclear bomb capability. However, they have not set any deadlines as reports say enforcement of American sanction on Iran has also weakened.

One of the issues that has divided the US team is how firmly to enforce existing sanctions as Iran reports a substantial increase in its oil exports to China. The other issue is whether to cut off negotiations as Iran drags them out while its nuclear program advances, the people familiar with the negotiations told the Wall Street Journal.

The Biden Administration made the revival of the 2015 agreement known as the JCPOA that Donald Trump had abandoned a priority as soon as it assumed office. Talks began almost 10 months ago with Iran and world powers but so far, no political agreement has been reached. The limited agreements achieved have been on technical issues about how Iran should return to the limits of the agreement and how the United States can lift sanctions.

During his weekly briefing Tuesday, government spokesman Ali Bahadori Jahromi repeated that Iranian negotiators retained their focus on guarantees and verification over lifting United States sanctions once the 2015 deal is back in place. Jahromi rejected speculation that President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) had discussed the possibility of an interim agreement during his recent visit to Moscow and insisted this was not on the agenda in Vienna.

Earlier in the week, Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, refuted reports that Russia has proposed that Iran accept an interim arrangement that would see Iran given specific sanctions relief in return for again accepting some of the nuclear curbs required under the 2015 accord, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

US officials have said the ideaof an interim accord was proposed by Russia, with Washington made aware of the move. Although there have been rumors − encouraged by South Korea transferring Iranian money to pay Tehran’s backdated United Nations dues − of the US ‘allowing’ Asian states to release Iranian funds frozen in fear of US sanctions, no specifics have emerged. Iranian officials have repeated called on the US to take ‘good-will measures.’

Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council appeared to be endorsing direct talks in a tweet Tuesday. "Contact with the American delegation in Vienna has been through informal written exchanges, and there was no need, and will be no need, for more contact, so far," he wrote but added that this communication method could only be replaced by other methods when a "good agreement is within reach".

Shamkhani's tweet mirrored Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's remarks in an address to the first National Conference of Iran and Neighbors in Tehran Monday where he dismissed social media reports of direct negotiations with the US but said the necessity of direct talks would not be "overlooked" if a "good deal with strong guarantees" was within reach in the process of negotiations.

Amir-Abdollahian said the US has been sending messages to Iran through various channels asking for "a certain level of direct talks" and appeared to be suggesting that the time to decide was drawing near quickly. "Our talks are approaching a point where technical negotiations will be completed, in not too far future, and we need to make a political decision."

However, a Western diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity told Iran International Tuesday that in the current circumstances there is very little chance of direct talks between Iran and the United States. Commenting on Amir-Abdollahian's remarks Monday, the diplomat said this could change the situation and pave the way for direct talks if the Iranian foreign minister's remarks were announcement of a new approach.

"Direct Talks on Condition of a Good Agreement with Strong Guarantees" was printed on the frontpage of the IRGC-affiliated Javan newspaper Tuesday with Amir-Abdollahian's photo. Referring to Amir-Abdollahian's remarks about "completion of technical negotiations in not so far in the future" and the necessity of "making a political decision" at that point, the website said this was the key point in his statement on Monday. "Iran is not afraid of holding direct talks with the US if it is assured that the outcome of this political decision is a 'a good agreement with strong guarantees'," Javan wrote.

Referring to Amir-Abdollahian's remarks, the Russian envoy to the talks Mikhail Ulyanov,in a tweet Monday said direct talks at advanced stage of the Vienna talks "might be useful". Ulyanov who has held some separate meetings with Malley in Vienna has on several occasions complained about lack of direct communication between Iran and the US.

The US State Department on Monday reiterated that it remains open to meeting with Iranian officials directly to discuss the nuclear deal and other issues. “We are prepared to meet directly. We have consistently held the position that it would be much more productive to engage with Iran directly on both JCPOA negotiations and on other issues,” State Department Spokesman Ned Price told reporters Monday.

"Meeting directly would enable more efficient communication, which is urgently needed to swiftly reach an understanding on a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA," Price added.

The Western diplomat who spoke to Iran International also said that the departure of three members of the US negotiation team, including the deputy special envoy for Iran Richard Nephew, from the talks did not necessarily mean Washington had changed its approach over direct talks with Tehran.

The Wall Street Journal in a report Monday said sources close to the US negotiation team have stated that Nephew, an architect of previous economic sanctions on Iran, and two other members of the team have left due to disagreements over Malley's soft posture towards Tehran in the current negotiations.

Among the issues that have divided the team are how firmly to enforce existing sanctions and whether to cut off negotiations as Iran drags them out while its nuclear program advances, the people familiar with the negotiations told the Wall Street Journal.