Draft Deal In Vienna Stipulates ‘Step By Step’ Return To JCPOA

"My criticism regarding the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) was that certain points had to be included to prevent problems from occurring in the future,” Ali Khamenei said in a speech video-linked to an audience in East Azarbaijan province.

Khamenei did not explain this advice but probably referred to his argument, first made in public in 2016, that the United States was not carrying out commitments to lift sanctions as required by the JCPOA. The leader’s speech also relates to Iran’s search in Vienna talks over reviving the JCPOA for US assurances that they will not again leave the deal as President Donald Trump did in 2018.

When Donald Trump won the 2016 US presidential election, calling the JCPOA “the worst deal in history,” and suggested in 2017 he would withdraw the US, Khamenei continued to express skepticism. In speeches in 2018 and 2019, he said he had warned the Rouhani administration of dangers in the JCPOA talks, but given the power structure in the Islamic Republic, every significant decision during talks with the West had to be cleared with Khamenei’s office.

In an interview with the Financial Times published Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Tehran had proposed that the US Congress declare its commitment to a revived JCPOA as way to offer Iran guarantees over US intentions.

Agreement ‘non-binding'

With both Iran and the Biden administration this week signaled that Vienna talks to restore the 2015 deal might be nearing an end, opposition to the JCPOA in both the US and Iran remains live.

An overwhelming majority of Republican lawmakers in the US House of Representatives bluntly rebuffed the suggestion of a Congressional guarantee over the JCPOA. Nearly 170 House members Wednesday sent a letter to President Joe Biden saying they view "any agreement" reached in Vienna not approved by the US Senate as "non-binding,” even if like the JCPOA ratified by the United Nations security council.

With this clear warning displayed on the billboard, if Khamenei allows an agreement in Vienna, the potential mistake could be worse than with the original JCPOA agreement. In 2015, there was more certainty that an agreement will stick, although there was some Congressional opposition. This time, Iran, including JCPOA opponents, are well aware that Republicans have a fair chance of winning majorities in Congress in November and perhaps the presidency in 2024.

Khamenei gave no indication in his Wednesday speech as to whether he thought a revived deal, restoring limits on Tehran’s nuclear program, was likely.

Hadi Moosavi, an Iranian journalist apparently living outside Iran, tweeted that Khamenei was "again" trying to protect himself by casting the blame on others. "So, what's the Leader's duty? It is against his legal and religious duties if he just sits there and says, 'I had said so'. I wish he would say what exactly was not heeded so we would know whether the current negotiation team is heeding them or not," Moosavi opined.

Khamenei in his speech argued that Iran needs civilian nuclear power for the future, but such a program would not need domestic uranium enrichment, as supplies are abundant on the world market. Russia already helps Iran maintain its power plant in Bushehr and has signed agreement to add new reactors. The Bushehr power plant has not been questioned by the United States and European powers.

Nearly 170 House members Wednesday sent a letter to President Joe Biden saying, "We will view any agreement reached in Vienna which is not submitted to the US Senate for ratification as a treaty — including any and all secret agreements made with Iran directly or on the sidelines of official talks — as non-binding."

Both Iran and the United States this week have signaled that negotiations that began last April might be nearing an end.

Republicans have repeatedly called on Biden to return to the 2015 Obama era agreement, since the Administration announced its intention in early 2021 to revive the JCPOA, abandoned by Donald Trump.

Iran has been insisting that Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018 was a violation that can be repeated in the future and the United States must offer “guarantees” it will not happen again. The Biden team has argued that according to the US constitution, the sitting president cannot speak on behalf of a future occupant of the White House, and no such guarantee would be considered binding.

Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in an interview with the Financial Times on Wednesday said that Iran wants to see a “political statement” by the US Congress essentially endorsing any agreement reached in Vienna and pledging not to reimpose sanctions on Tehran.

“As duly elected representatives of American citizens across the United States…we feel compelled to remind you that you do not have the power to provide any such “guarantee.” Indeed, if you forge an agreement with the Supreme Leader of Iran without formal Congressional approval, it will be temporary and non-binding and will meet the same fate as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),” the letter said.

The overwhelming majority of House Republicans put forth other stringent conditions that if Iran takes them seriously, it will never agree to a deal.

Above all else is the condition that Tehran dismantles all its uranium enrichment capabilities, something that they did not agree to in the original 2015 agreement. Equally important is the demand that Iran should destroy most of its ballistic missiles.

Moreover, the House Republicans, who most likely will receive full support from their Senate comrades, say in the letter that they would oppose any sanctions relief unless Iran “verifiably halted all sponsorship of terrorism, released all American hostages and paid U.S. federal court judgements owed to the American victims of terrorism sponsored by the Iranian regime.”

In the end, the signatories expressed their support for Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran which was imposed his withdrawal from the JCPOA. “We urge you to change course, learn from the first JCPOA’s failures, and work with Congress to impose maximum pressure on the Iranian regime,” they told President Biden.

The Administration recently has been publicly condemning the Trump policy that it blames for the current crisis with Iran. Iranian officials have been quick to quote Biden officials in arguing that the United States has broken international law and its measures against Iran have been defeated.

It is not clear how much support the Republicans can expect from Democrats in Congress, but a leading Senate Democratic leader and chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Menendez early this month expressed deep concerns over the Biden Administration’s negotiating strategy with Iran.

State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Wednesday that the US is in "the midst of the very final stages" of indirect talks with Iran.

"This is really the decisive period during which we'll be able to determine whether a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA is in the offing, or if it's not."

China's chief negotiator in Vienna, Wang Qun, also told Iran International's correspondent that the next day or two can be decisive in the talks, which are in their final satge.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani said on Twitter on Wednesday that "after weeks of intensive talks, we are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though."

Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in an interview with the Financial Times said that any guarantee of a lasting agreement by the Biden Administration would not be enough and Tehran wants an assurance from Congress. Iran has been insisting to receive a guarantee that the US will not withdraw from a deal again, as former President Donald Trump decided to abandon the JCPOA in 2018.

Republicans and some Democrats have serious reservations about President Joe Biden’s Iran policy of reviving the JCPOA.

Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told the Senate Wednesday that a “tipping point” had been reached. “It's not a matter of weeks, it's a matter of days,” he said. “Political decisions are needed from the Iranians. Either they trigger a serious crisis in the coming days… or they accept an agreement that respects the interests of all the parties.”

Le Drian told the senate that France and other world powers – China, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States – were in agreement on the outlines of how to restore the 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

"We are coming to the moment of truth,” he said. “If we want Iran to respect its (nuclear) non-proliferation commitments and in exchange for the United States to lift sanctions, there has to be something left to do it.”

In an interview with the Financial Times published earlier Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian suggested the US Congress should issue a “political statement” to reassure Iran it would not again leave the JCPOA, as the US did in 2018.

While the US puts the onus on Iran to reverse steps since 2019 expanding its nuclear program, Iran has argued the US must respect its commitments under the JCPOA, lifting ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, before it re-joins JCPOA structures.

In an interview published WednesdayHossein Amir-Abdollahian suggested this could meet Iran’s request for guarantees the US would not again renege on the agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

"At least their parliaments or parliament speakers including the US Congress, can declare in the form of a political statement their commitment to the agreement and return to the JCPOA implementation,” the foreign minister said referring to the US and its three Western allies involved in the talks.

Amir-Adollahian said Iran had received "many messages" from Washington requesting direct talks: “Our last response to Americans and intermediaries was: Any direct dialogue, contact and negotiation with the US would have very huge costs for my government.”

Republicans and some Democrats in Congress are opposed to reviving the JCPOA, arguing that it is insufficient to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Only the US Senate has the constitutional right to approve a treaty, and such a statement is hard to imagine coming from the evenly split chamber.

Iran – under both President Ebrahim Raisi and predecessor Hassan Rouhani – has maintained that the US should return to its commitments under the JCPOA, lifting ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, before it returns to JCPOA structures for discussions.

No surrender

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei − who backed direct talks with the US over Afghanistan, Iraq, in 2000s and negotiating the JCPOA in 2013-15 − said in a January speech that "negotiations with the enemy at a certain juncture” did not necessitate "surrender.” He had explicitly banned direct talks with the US in November 2018.

There is disagreement in Tehran over whether talking to the US is a pragmatic matter of national interest or a cast-iron principle. The Kayhan newspaper, whose editor Hossain Shariatmadari is a veteran opponent of any nuclear talks, last month criticized both Amir-Abdollahian and Ali Shamkhani,Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, for floating the possibility.

In a front-page piece January 26 Kayhan detected the "enemy's trick to evade lifting the sanctions” and offered "brotherly advice to the foreign minister and security chief" not to be misled by a mirage.

Saeed Jalili, another JCPOA opponent and like Rouhani a nominee of Khamenei on the SNSC, reportedly earlier this month wrote a 200-page letter to the leader explaining his opposition to continuing talks with world power in Vienna aimed at reviving the JCPOA. In a commentary February 1 the reformist Shargh newspaper claimed Jalili had proposed Iran boosting uranium enrichment to 90 percent– considered ‘weapons grade’ – as a way to achieve the ending of ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions.

People’s interests

While Raisi said during the June presidential election that he would back restoring the JCPOA if it were “in the people’s interests,” some of those who supported him oppose the agreement, which limited Iran’s nuclear program and allowed intrusive United Nations inspections.

On Monday Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman said Tehran was awaiting the US President Joe Biden's "political decision" and US “concrete guarantees” over restoring the agreement. Biden, like Raisi, faces domestic opposition, particularly from Republicans who opposed the JCPOA and supported former president Donald Trump’s decision in 2018 to leave it and launch ‘maximum pressure.’