Iran International
IAEA head Rafael Grossi met Iran’s nuclear chief Saturday morning during his trip to Tehran to resolve safeguards issues that could impact a new nuclear deal.
Iran’s nuclear head Mohammad Eslami Iran would resolve “outstanding matters” by June 21 with the UN atomic watchdog. It was unclear if the watchdog chief backed the timeline.
Eslami announced the timeframe in Tehran at a press conference alongside Rafael Mariano Grossi, visiting chief of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency.
It was unclear how the three-month timetable would fit with nuclear talks between Tehran and world powers in Vienna, where many participants over the past week have stressed that efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are reaching a conclusion.
"We have agreed to provide the IAEA by the end of [the Iranian month of] Khordad [June 21] with documents related to outstanding questions between Tehran and the agency," Eslami told the news conference, which was televised in Iran.
"It is important to have this understanding ... to work together, to work very intensively," Grossi said. But the IAEA chief, who was due to return to Vienna Saturday, added: "There are still matters that need to be addressed by Iran."
Complex interplay
The interplay between the Vienna talks and the IAEA role is a complex one. As a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT), Iran is subject to IAEA inspections and monitoring under its NPT ‘safeguards’ agreement.
But the agency’s role was enhanced under the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which limited Iran’s nuclear program in scale and nature. Since 2019, a year after the United States left the JCPOA and began ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, Iran has both expanded its nuclear program and limited IAEA access almost to the lower level required under safeguards.
But in addition to negotiating a temporary arrangement to maintain access beyond safeguards, Grossi has continued to request information on Iran’s nuclear work prior to 2003, including the agency’s finding of uranium traces it says are unexplained. This IAEA line of enquiry comes under safeguards.
It was reported over the past week that Iran had demanded in Vienna, as part of an agreement over reviving the JCPOA, that this IAEA enquiry be dropped. But in Tehran, Grossi appeared to suggest Saturday that it might be other parties to the talks – presumably the United States or the three western European JCPOA signatories – who were insisting the probe continues.
Resolving ‘outstanding issues’
"Without resolving these (outstanding) issues, efforts to revive the JCPOA (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) may not be possible,” Grossi told Saturday’s press conference. The IAEA chief did not explain whether these ‘outstanding issues’ might be long-standing questions, future agency work in monitoring the reimplementation of the JCPOA, or both.
Aside from any issues directly within the IAEA remit, the Vienna talks have faced challenges in agreeing which US sanctions contravene the JCPOA and exactly how the refined and expanded Iranian nuclear program should be brought back within JCPOA limits.
While one lawmaker was certain that "Iran has reached an agreement better than before with the United States," another member of the Iranian parliament says that the Majles has been kept in the dark about the negotiations in Vienna.
Another Iranian lawmaker was quoted by local media as saying that he is less concerned about the initiatives and positions of the other side than about the plots being hatched by regime insiders in Iran to derail the negotiations.
Hardliner lawmaker Hossein Naghavi-Hosseini told Nameh News in Tehran that he is certain the negotiations will bear fruit and an agreement is at hand, although there are still issues that have not been tackled by the negotiators.
Naghavi-Hosseini said that Iran will announce its final verdict on the deal within a few days. He said Iran is adamant to reach a deal, adding that everything has been agreed upon except the guarantees that Iran demands that the next US President will not pull out of the nuclear agreement with Iran.
The hardliner lawmaker went on to say that the two sides have agreed all the sanctions imposed on Iran after President Donald Trump's pull-out from the JCPOA in 2018 will be lifted. What Iran and America have agreed upon is not much different from the JCPOA, he said and explained that Westerners are concerned about Iran's ability to enrich uranium beyond the 60-percent level.
Although Naghavi-Hosseini appeared or claimed to be well-informed about the deal, his colleague Jabbar Kouchakinejad told reporters on Thursday that the parliament has not been informed of the government's views about the talks. He also said that there are still problems about the impact of US sanctions on Iran's economy, insurance and oil industry and international trade which have not been resolved.
Kouchakinejad said there are a lot of ambiguities about a possible deal with America as Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has offered minimal explanations to lawmakers. He added that it is important for the Majles to make sure that any possible agreement does not undermine previous laws passed by the Majles.
Kouchakinejad added that the Majles is also concerned that problems in the United States' domestic politics could prompt any US government to withdraw from a deal with Iran. That is why Iran insists on getting guarantees from the US side, although so far Washington has refused to give any such guarantee.
Meanwhile, he said that as far as safeguard regulations of the JCPOA are concerned, Iran has red lines that cannot allow IAEA inspectors to visit some of its nuclear sites.
At the same time, former Iranian lawmaker Jalal Mirzaee told Asr-e Ma in Tehran that some political elements in Tehran are pushing hard to derail the nuclear talks. Mirzaee, a professor of political science, said that he is more concerned about the adverse impact of these moves than he is concerned about the decisions being made in other capitals.
He said moves opposing an agreement have intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He warned that such moves which are motivated by factional interests have led to wasting of a lot of time and opportunities for Iran and could lead to further costs. "We should seize the opportunity and relieve the country of its tremendous financial difficulties while President Biden urgently needs a deal with Iran," Mirzaee said.
An ultraconservative lawmaker even insisted on Thursday that Iranian negotiators should leave Vienna at once as he believes there is nothing to be gained in the talks.
International relations expert Ali Bigdeli told Didban Iran website in Tehran that if there is no agreement between Iran and world powers, the rate of exchange for the US dollar will rise to 400,000 rials as opposed to the current rate of around 260,000 rials in less than a week.
The analyst added that if negotiators fail to reach an agreement, Iran's case might be sent to the UN Security council, where more sanctions are likely to be imposed on Tehran even if Russia and China back the Islamic Republic.
Bigdeli said that concern over the implications of not reaching an agreement on Iran's already ailing economy could lead to growing concerns about the eruption of riots in Iran.
He sounded almost certain that the negotiations in Vienna are doomed to fail. He said Iran's support of Russia has affected the fate of the nuclear talks and it looks like the talks are ending in a deadlock as Iran's demands from the West are not rooted in reality.
Bigdeli went on to say that in the new Iranian year which starts in late March, prices will rise even further, and without an agreement, Iran's international isolation as a result of its support for Russia will lead to an unprecedented level of public dissatisfaction which will end in major riots.
Meanwhile, former lawmaker Mansour Haghighatpour told reporters in Tehran that those who are against a nuclear deal with the United States are no more than 20 lawmakers in the Iranian parliament and they cannot decide for the entire nation and impose their hardliner views.
He criticized hardliner lawmakers who say Iran should not make an agreement with the United States, adding that it is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who makes the final decision about steering the negotiations.
In another development, firebrand member of parliament Mahmoud Nabavian, a staunch opponent of any deal with the West, particularly with the United States, told reporters in Tehran that Iran's problems have nothing to do with the sanctions and insisted that Iranian negotiators should leave Vienna at once.
Nabavian, a member of the ultraconservative Paydari Party, boasted that in spite of sanctions Iran has had a lot of progress particularly in the area of developing military hardware. He added that creating relative welfare for the nation is feasible regardless of the economic pressures, only if the government has the right roadmap.
This has been a constant argument of hardliners, while many former officials and economists keep saying that the country would be doomed if sanctions continue.
He said the conditions set for Iran by the other side is unfair and will cause losses for Tehran. He said while 980 Iranians are sanctioned by the United States, Washington is prepared to lift the sanction on only 20 individuals.
Nonetheless, he claimed that sanctions affect only 20 percent of Iran's economy, and the other 80 percent should be attributed to poor management.