Iran’s FM Optimistic On Talks After Russia Backs Off From Demand

The official also said that the United States continues to engage with Russia on a return to the full implementation of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal

Iranian and Russia foreign ministers presented a united front at a Moscow news conference Tuesday over long-running talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Iran’s Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that the recent pause in the 11-month Vienna talks could “pave the way for the resolution of issues and the return of all parties to their nuclear deal commitments.” Amir-Abdollahian said he had invited Lavrov to visit Tehran soon.

An apparent twist was added to the talks March 5 when Lavrov said Moscow needed assurances that any sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine invasion would not impact Russia’s relations with Iran and the implementation of a revived 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). There has been wide speculation as to what Lavrov meant and exactly what Moscow was seeking.

But the remarks of a US official on Tuesday show that Washington only exempted Russia in nuclear projects outlined in the JCPOA.

Russia is expected to play a central part in reimplementing the JCPOA, especially in shipping out enriched uranium currently held by Tehran above JCPOA limits. Moscow may have suspected that US third-party sanctions might target any Iranian links with Russia.

Lavrov said the future of Iranian-Russian relations was bright, especially as the Vienna talks were in the “home straight.”

‘Cannot be ignored’

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had a different emphasis Tuesday, suggesting that Moscow and Washington may not yet have resolved Lavrov’s query over possible sanctions. Peskov told reporters that the issue remained "a topic for the continuation of talks - it is really something that is very important for us."

Peskov said sanctions against Russia "directly affect the interests of our country in the context of that deal,” and that international sanctions over Ukraine were “a new aspect that cannot be ignored, that must be taken into account."

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in three weeks Tuesday, with some analysts attributing this in part to Lavrov’s stress on Russia’s continuing commitment to the JCPOA, which when back in place could see 1 million barrels a day of Iranian oil return to the global markets. Also depressing the price was expectation of reduced demand due to the Covid-19 upsurge in China.

In a tweet on Monday, Cruz denounced the deal that the Biden administration hopes to strike with the Islamic Republic, noting that “Biden’s foreign policy has failed in Afghanistan and Ukraine; now he is preparing to make a new catastrophic nuclear agreement with the Iranian regime”.

He emphasized that the Islamic Republic is “the same regime that chants ‘Death to America’, has killed hundreds of Americans, and conducts terrorism around the globe”.

He also shared a video of his remarks last week, saying, “In Vienna, Biden diplomats have been furiously bending over backwards to surrender to the Ayatollah (referring to Khamenei), the same Ayatollah who is a theocratic despot who regularly chants ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’”.

“This administration wants nothing more than to give them hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief, money that will inevitably be used to -- number one -- murder Americans… and number two – to develop nuclear weapons”, he said.

Iran “may be only weeks away from being able to develop a nuclear weapon”, Cruz warned, noting that “our enemies are stronger because of the weakness of this administration.

In a statement from Senate Republicans released on Monday, 49 Senators told the Biden Administration they oppose a revived deal as it can reduce limits on Tehran’s nuclear program.

With 11-month talks in Vienna struggling to reach agreement on reviving the 2015 deal, a complication was added March 5 when Russia foreign minister Sergei Lavrov announced Moscow wanted assurances that any sanctions over Ukraine would not affect its economic and other relations with Iran.

Price said that while “we are not at that point, and…hope not to get there,” Washington was open to “engage bilaterally [with Iran] on these pressing and urgent matters.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meeting with visiting Iranian foreign minister on Tuesday said US suggestions that Moscow was blocking efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal were untrue, following talks with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amira-Adollahian in Moscow.

Lavrov made a surprising statement saying Russia had received written assurances from Washington that sanctions against Moscow over Ukraine would not hinder cooperation within the framework of the deal, which lifted sanctions on Tehran in return for curbs on its nuclear program.

Washington has not mentioned any assurance granted to Moscow, whether just to facilitate the implementation of a revived JCPOA or otherwise.

Rising tensions with talks paused

Tensions in the Middle East have been raised with the pausing of the Vienna JCPOA talks, leaving US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions on Iran continuing and the expanded Iran nuclear program running.

Israel and the United Arab Emirates, both lukewarm over the US approach to the Ukraine crisis, have made a joint approach to Washington seeking greater military aid.

Iran, which fired missiles Sunday at an alleged Israeli base in Erbil, northern Iraq, Sunday in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike March 7 in Damascus that killed two Iranian soldiers. Tehran has also paused talks with Saudi Arabia after the Saudis announced the beheadings of 81 people, around half of whom the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said were Shia who had taken part in political protests.

Greater impunity

Price said Monday that the Iranian missile strike was “clear violations of Iraq’s sovereignty” and a taste of how Tehran might act “with far greater impunity if it were not verifiably and permanently constrained from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

Noting that the Vienna talks over JCPOA revival had involved “complex negotiations” that could now be “something close to the finish line,” Price stressed there were still “outstanding issues… the hardest issues” left to resolve.

Added to these, Price said that there were “now some external factors that are weighing on where we are” –a reference to Lavrov’s demand that any sanctions over Ukraine should not affect JCPOA implementation, in which Russia has been expected to play a central role, especially in shipping out Iranian enriched uranium in excess of JCPOA limits.

JCPOA ‘best vehicle’

“You may have seen the statement from the E3, our French, our German, our British partners, that came out over the weekend,” Price explained. “It said, ‘Nobody should seek to exploit JCPOA negotiations to obtain assurances that are separate to the JCPOA.’ We would certainly endorse that statement.”

In stressing that Washington’s preference was for agreement in Vienna as “the best vehicle to achieve our policy objectives,” Price echoed the statement from Antony Blinken March 9 that Washington and Moscow had a common interest in limiting the Iranian nuclear program through reviving the JCPOA.

Price floating the notion of a bilateral US-Iran agreement might be an attempt to upset Moscow or disorientate Tehran. But the spokesman gave no indication as to why bilateral talks with Iran outside the Vienna process might suddenly overcome the outstanding issues that negotiators have failed to resolve in 11 months.

At the start of talks on Tuesday Amir-Abdollahian expressed hopes his visit would lead to Russian support for a "good, stable and strong nuclear deal," Iran's semi-official ISNA news agency reported. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his Iranian counterpart that agreement on the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal known as JCPOA, was in the finishing straight.

Amir-Abdollahian’s visit was announced on Monday, days after negotiation in Vienna came to a halt after Russia made a last-minute demand. On March 5, Lavrov said that along with an agreement in Vienna Moscow should get written guarantees from Washington that sanctions imposed for the invasion fo Ukraine will not impact its relations with Tehran.

The United States and Europe have rejected the Russian demand, saying that a nuclear agreement with Iran is not related to the Ukraine crisis.

The official IRNA news website quoted the foreign minister as saying that he will also discuss the Ukraine crisis with Russian officials. On Monday, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that he has spoken with his Iranian counterpart and asked him to pass on a message to Moscow: “Russia must stop bombing civilians, commit to the ceasefire, and with draw from Ukraine.”

Recent reports, claiming to be based on insider information, have indicted that the Biden Administration plans to lift non-nuclear sanctions in the Vienna talks aimed at reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions, or JCPOA. Sanctions said to be lifted include terrorism related designations, possibly including entities and individuals affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

“According to press reports, the Biden Administration may soon conclude an agreement with Iran to provide substantial sanctions relief in exchange for merely short-term limitations on Iran’s nuclear program. By every indication, the Biden Administration appears to have given away the store,” a statement from Senate Republicans released on Monday said.

Republicans have been warning the Biden Administration from the time it assumed office not to seek to revive the JCPOA, which they regard as a weak agreement that would not stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons in the future and does not address other threats the Islamic Republic poses to regional countries.

“The administration has thus far refused to commit to submit a new Iran deal to the Senate for ratification as a treaty, as per its constitutional obligation, or for review under statutory requirements that passed on a bipartisan basis in response to the 2015 deal. Additionally, despite earlier promises to the contrary, the administration has failed to adequately consult with Congress,” the statement said.

The issue that might make an agreement in Vienna more controversial is what it would allow Iran to do with advances it has made in the past two years, including deploying more sophisticated uranium enrichment machines and the highly purified fissile material it has stockpiled. Some reports say that Tehran will be allowed to keep the machines called centrifuges, which would allow for a quick resumption of enrichment.

It is also expected that an agreement will require Iran to ship the highly enriched uranium to Russia, which on March 5 made demands to be exempted from Ukraine sanctions in its dealings with Tehran. The sudden request forced diplomats to freeze the Vienna negotiations indefinitely. The United States and its European allies have refused the Russian demand.

These are new elements beyond the Obama-era deal concluded 7 years ago and critics argue that it is could be considered a new agreement, which would need Congressional review of some sort.

“Republicans have made it clear: We would be willing and eager to support an Iran policy that completely blocks Iran’s path to a nuclear weapons capability, constrains Iran’s ballistic missile program, and confronts Iran’s support for terrorism. But if the administration agrees to a deal that fails to achieve these objectives or makes achieving them more difficult, Republicans will do everything in our power to reverse it,” the Senate Republicans said.

Some Democratic lawmakers have recently joined the opposition to the Biden Administration’s drive to reach a new agreement with Iran. The Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to have raised more concern about the Vienna talks in which Moscow has played an important mediating role.