Iran International
A member of the Iranian delegation to the nuclear talks says the Ukraine war will eventually force Washington to agree to Tehran's demands and make a deal.
"Failure to reach a deal [so far] is a result of domestic troubles in the US but the ever-increasing problems caused by the Ukraine war will put pressure on [President Joe] Biden to accept the necessity of a deal [with Tehran]," Mohammad Marandi, the US-born media advisor of the Iranian delegation to the Vienna nuclear talks told the official news agency IRNA on Sunday.
Marandi claimed that none of the other parties in the talks -- the three European sides, Russia, China and Tehran -- have any problem with continuing the talks. "It has to be seen what decision Biden will make about continuing [the negotiations]," he said.
Marandi who is often interviewed as a commentator on Iran's foreign relations by the state media told IRNA that Americans admit Iran has scored 'considerable gains' in the talks. "That's why some of the members of the US delegation resigned and left the teas in protest," he said referring to the resignation of Richard Nephew, the architect of Washington's sanctions on Iran in January, and part-time senior adviser Dan Shapiro in March.
"Talks were progressing fast during the last few days but the Americans abruptly put a break to them over various issues including the lifting of sanctions and its verification, guarantees, as well as [delisting of the] IRGC," Marandi said.
Tehran insists that the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization was part of the Trump administration's 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran and therefore should be reversed, but the US considers the designation unrelated to the nuclear issue.
Iranian officials reiterate that it is Washington's "excessive demands" that has prevented a deal from materializing and that Tehran will not surrender to such demands.
What the US state department has said is that if Iran wishes to discuss sanction unrelated to the nuclear issue, it should accept to widen the talks to include other outstanding problems.
Pundits now consider a deal to restore the 2015 deal, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), much less likely than in mid-March when it appeared to be only a few days away, as Tehran and Washington both insist on their positions and throwing the onus on each other.
"Chances of a deal and the restoration of the JCPOA are less than a few months ago. For any progress either the US or the Iranian side must make a compromise. It's quite possible that failing to do so could prevent a deal from being made," Karl Kaltenhaler, director of the Center for Intelligence and Security Studies at The University of Akron in Ohio told the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) Thursday.
In an interview with London-based The New Arab newspaper published Friday, the US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said there was a possibility that there will not be an agreement over the restoration of the JCPOA and mutual compliance. "We're ready and they're not," she said.
She also reiterated that the Biden administration would work to ensure that Iran is never allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, suggesting that the US will use its vote, if the matter is referred to the UN Security Council, to put the brakes on Iran's nuclear program.
Speaking before the Friday prayers in Tehran on April 22, Gen. Hassan Hassanzadeh called those elements "lowly people and those who have sold their soul to the enemy."
Hassanzadeh is a key figure although he is not often mentioned in the media. He is the commander of IRGC forces in the capital Tehran, a fearsome unit that has been often used to suppress popular protests and is tasked with defending the Islamic Republic's centers of power.
Nuclear talks with Iran have come to a standstill since March after Tehran demanded that Washington remove the IRGC from its Foreign Terrorist Organization list.
The Biden administration has said that if Iran wants sanctions relief beyond those imposed for its nuclear activities it should be ready to negotiate over regional issues, effectively meaning limiting its interventions in other countries.
Iran's Foreign Minister had said in March that IRGC commanders are prepared to sacrifice their interest for the greater interests of the Islamic Republic and forego the call for delisting the IRGC to facilitate an agreement between Tehran and Washington.
Hassanzadeh said: "I wish to tell all the enemies and mean elements who have sold their soul to the enemies that the IRGC will never and by no means be limited."
The Commander of the IRGC's naval force Alireza Tangsiri on Thursday announced that Iran will not give up its intention of seeking revenge for the killing of former Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, insisting that the IRGC would never forget the idea of seeking revenge.
The commander of IRGC's ground forces Mohamad Pakpour also claimed that "even the killing of all of US leaders will not be enough as a revenge for the murder of Soleimani."
These comments by IRGC commanders come at a time when many in Iran, including politicians are disappointed with the dim prospects of an agreement that could lift economic sanctions.
Former Iranian diplomat Ghassem Mohebali told Nameh News website that the Iranian government is still not inclined to offer explanations about the contents of any draft agreement with the US side.
"This is partly because of the weakness of Iran's negotiating team and its members' lack of familiarity with the way diplomacy works," he said, adding that "putting forward matters that were not part of the 2015 deal (JCPOA) could also be another hindrance." These matters include the role of the IRGC in the region as well as Iran's ballistic missile program.
He warned that the deadlock could lead to taking Iran’s nuclear breaches to the UN Security Council, where the other side has the right to veto any decision.
Meanwhile, Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of hardline daily Kayhan, who is close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's office said in an interview with Iran's state-owned radio that "the negotiations are not likely to lead anywhere” because the US is creating other issues outside of the nuclear question.
Shariatmadari added that some countries including South Korea are undermining Iran's right and refusing to pay their debts to Tehran fearing that they might be affected by US secondary sanctions. He added that the Americans have linked some of their sanctions to the JCPOA while they have withdrawn from the agreement and are no longer part of the JCPOA.
Shariatmadari further added that the JCPOA was a golden document for the US side while it did not have any benefit for Iran.
Iranian analyst Mehdi Ayati also told Nameh News that he is not optimistic about a possible agreement with Washington, because he believes that the JCPOA ended when former US President Donald Trump pulled out of the agreement in May 2018.
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian made the remarks in a Thursday phone call with his Syrian counterpart, Faisal Mikdad, noting that the diplomatic procedures are working efficiently in the talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
“The path of diplomacy works well, and we are not far from reaching a good and lasting agreement,” he said, stressing that “We continue to exchange messages with Americans through the European Union. We have repeatedly emphasized that Iran does not pay attention to [the US] excessive demands and is not willing to retreat from its red lines times”.
Tehran has refused to negotiate with Washington directly during talks in Vienna to revive the JCPOA. European powers and Russia have acted as intermediaries between the two sides.
Amir-Abdollahian reiterated that “if the United States is realistic, we are ready to finalize the agreement in the near future in the presence of the foreign ministers of JCPOA Joint commission in Vienna”.
Eleven months of indirect talks between Iran and the United States to restore the JCPOA have stalled as both sides say political decisions are required by Tehran and Washington to settle the remaining issues.
One of the main issues is Iran’s demand to remove the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations as well as the removal of all ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions.
An unnamed US State Department official was quoted by Reuters as saying on Thursday that “if Iran wants sanctions lifting that goes beyond the JCPOA, they will need to address concerns of ours beyond the JCPOA.”
‘Maximum pressure’ refers to all sanctions imposed by former president Donald Trump, who withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. While Iran has been demanding their removal as a strict condition to restore the deal, the US expressed willingness to lift only nuclear sanctions.
Trump imposed around 1,500 sanctions on Iran since May 2018, but a majority are sanctions on Iranian officials, individuals and companies for reasons other than the nuclear program. Sanctions were imposed for human rights violations, support for terror groups, violation of banking and export laws, money laundering and similar offences.
Elsewhere in their phone call, Amir-Abdollahian and Mikdad talked about the recent developments in Israel and condemned the raids on the al-Aqsa Mosque.
“We are witnessing Zionist crimes at al-Aqsa Mosque on a daily basis”, the Iranian top diplomat said.
Tensions between Israel and Palestinians have been high since the start of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan after Israeli police entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound reportedly to facilitate visits by far-right Jews to the holy site. More than 300 Palestinians were arrested and at least 170 wounded during the clashes.
Amir-Abdollahian expressed hope that on the occasion of International Quds Day, an Iranian official holiday in support of Palestinians, which will be marked on the last Friday of the fasting month of Ramadan, all Muslim nations will send a powerful message in defense of Palestine and to condemn Israel’s “acts of aggression”.
Mikdad, for his part, condemned “the Israeli crimes in the Palestinian territories”, and praised the role of the Islamic Republic in supporting the Palestinian resistance.
Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) extra-territorial Quds Force, was killed in Baghdad along with nine others in 2020 by a drone strike ordered by President Donald Trump.
"They constantly send messages saying they will offer rewards and remove certain sanctions if we give up seeking revenge for Soleimani," Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, commander of IRGC naval forces, said Wednesday. "But this is wishful thinking. The Supreme Leader [Ali Khamenei] stresses taking revenge, and the IRGC commander has said that revenge is inevitable. We will, however, decide the time and place for it.”
With Iran’s talks with world powers over renewing the 2015 nuclear deal on hold, the strike on Soleimani has become tangled up in arguments over Trump’s 2019 listing of the IRGC as a ‘foreign terrorist organization’ (FTO).
US state department spokesman Ned Price said Monday the US was not prepared to remove the IRGC from its list as a condition for renewing the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) as it was "outside the purview" of the 2015 agreement. Price argued that if the US were to delist the IRGC then Iran should be prepared to negotiate other issues which are important for Washington, presumably Iran's aggressive regional policies and support for militant groups, which are also outside the JCPOA purview.
The pause in Vienna talks between Iran and world powers to revive the JCPOA has given opportunity for opponents of the agreement in both Washington and Tehran to express dissent, including within the US Democrat Party.
Iran is reportedly insisting on removing the IRGC from the FTO list, which is the only example of a sovereign state’s armed forces to be included. But in a letter to President Biden dated April 14, 900 ‘Gold Star’ families urged Biden not to lift the designation, which they said would widen the IRGC's access to resources and "fuel increased terror activities.”
A Gold Star Family is the immediate family member(s) of a fallen US service member who died while serving in a time of conflict.
Risky decision
In a statement released Thursday 40 former government officials and leading non-proliferation experts said that not restoring the JCPOA would “increase the danger that Iran would become a threshold nuclear-weapon state.” While not addressing the FTO listing, the statement noted that “some in Congress are threatening to block…steps necessary to bring Iran back under the nuclear limits set by the JCPOA.”
Some in Iran have blamed Biden for the impasse in the nuclear talks for being "weak" in the face of domestic opposition and failing to risk a political decision over delisting the IRGC.
The Qods Force − which takes its name from al-Quds, the Arabic name for Jerusalem − under Soleimani became deeply involved in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq. Trump claimed that the general, who was Iran’s main operative in the Middle East was killed because he was planning attacks on US troops but never offered evidence.
Days before Soleimani’s killing, Iraqi Shiite militia supported by Iran attacked the US embassy in Baghdad after repeated rocket attacks on US targets in 2019.
On April 8 the State Department said Bidenconsidered the Qods Force a ‘terrorist’ group, which some pundits took as a suggestion that the US might keep the Qods Force on the FTO list while removing the IRGC. With or without the FTO designation, the IRGC is subject to a range of US sanctions.