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Iran Diplomacy, a website close to the Iranian Foreign Ministry says Russian forces' withdrawal from Syria, and the possibility of Iranian forces replacing them could be an indication that Moscow is trying to keep Iran in its camp.

This comes while many Iranian observers had suggested during the past two months after the invasion of Ukraine that Iran should distance itself from Moscow and charged that Russia is using Iran as a pawn in its relations with the West and at the same time bars Iran from benefitting in the new situation of world energy markets after sanctions on Russian energy exports.

Earlier this week, Syrian President Bashar Assad's visit to Tehran was interpreted by some Iran analysts as a move to invite Iran to get involved in Syria to replace Russia in both war efforts and reconstruction projects in Syria. However, the visit by Assad could have been an attempt by Syria to balance its newly built relations with Persian Gulf states.

Other Iranian analysts have said that Moscow is taking revenge from Israel for Israeli officials' offending comments about Russia's war in Ukraine. They say Moscow is creating trouble for Tel Aviv by placing Iranian forces in larger contingents in Syria.

Iran's last ambassador to the Soviet Union and its first envoy to Russian Federation after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nematollah Izadi, says all that could be true as none of these statements are mutually exclusive. These hypotheses can complement each other, he said.

Izadi added that Russia's war next door in Ukraine has overshadowed the importance of its expedition to Syria. Russia is not that active in the Caucasus region either, he said. He added that Israel has annoyed Moscow by not supporting its position on Ukraine. Tel Aviv eventually took side with Ukraine, and this gave the idea to Putin to strike a different balance at the borders with Israel.

However, Izadi observed that Russia's withdrawal from Syria has eliminated the the political and military buffer between Iran and Israel, so Israel is in a better position to attack Iranian forces, and this justifies Iran's desire to reinforce its positions in Syria. He said Iran's extended presence in Syria does not necessarily pose a new threat to Israel. This can only create a new military equilibrium in the region, Izadi said.

But Israel has been concerned since Syrian rebels were defeated in the civil war with Russian support and Iran began entrenching itself near the Israeli border. Israel has launched hundreds of air attacks against Iranian bases in Syria to prevent further entrenchment and flow of weapons to Tehran’s proxy, the Hezbollah, and other militia armed and backed by Iran.

The spokesperson made the remarks on Thursday against the backdrop of visits to Tehran by the European Union’s coordinator of the nuclear talks, Enrique Mora, and Qatar’s ruler, Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani. “The administration, along with our Allies, is preparing equally for scenarios with and without a mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA.”

About the trips by Mora and Al-Thani, the spokesman said Washington is in close contact with the EU coordinator, who continues to convey messages back and forth, and appreciated “the constructive role Qatar has played in our efforts to achieve diplomatic resolutions of important and difficult issues between the US and Iran, including the unjust detention of US citizens and our effort to achieve a mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA”.

In response to a question about Iran’s demand to remove the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from the list of Foreign Terrorist Organization, the spokesperson said that "if Iran wants sanctions lifting that goes beyond the JCPOA (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), they will need to address concerns of ours beyond the JCPOA”.

The official added, “Conversely, if they do not want to use these talks to resolve other bilateral issues beyond the JCPOA, then we are confident that we can very quickly reach an understanding on the JCPOA and begin reimplementing the deal”.

On Friday, the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Mora’s trip has unblocked the negotiations, expressing hope for the prospect of reaching an agreement.

In the ‘Worldwide Threat Assessment” report presented this week to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said Iran was probably “planning covert actions against US officials to retaliate” for Soleimani’s death “while attempting to maintain plausible deniability and minimize escalation.” General Soleimani, commander of Iran’s extra-territorial Al-Qods Force (QF), was killed by a US drone strike in Baghdad in January 2020.

Berrier’s report, submitted May 10, suggests Iran wants to avoid “an escalation in regional tensions or full-scale conflict” and therefore “probably calibrates its attacks to pressure adversaries and proportionally retaliate for real or perceived transgressions…”

Iran’s approach to Soleimani’s demise, Berrier argues, reflects its wider military strategy “based on deterrence and retaliation,” including “the region’s largest arsenal of UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones]” and missiles, favored for cost and sometimes plausible deniability.

Iran has also gained “strategic depth,” the report says, through supporting “partner and proxy networks in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen” that facilitate attacks on US and allied interests in line with Iran’s aim of “attempting to force a US military drawdown” from the region, a goal inherited by Soleimani’s successor as QF commander Esmail Ghani.

Capable partners, fiscal pressures

The report highlights Hezbollah as Iran’s “most important and capable substate partner” whose strategic interests “rarely diverge.” It notes the 2021 first use in Iraq by Iran-allied militias of UAVs against US targets, and by Iranian forces in Syria deploying UAVs “in the most sophisticated attack against a US military base in the country to date, reportedly in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike...”

In Yemen, Iranian advisers and weapons – including in the past year the supply of the relatively advanced Shahed-136 – had enabled Ansar Allah, or Houthis, with “long-range strike capacities” whose use is on hold since mid-April with the de facto truce between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition.

The report suggests Iran’s military expenditure, despite a rising defense budget, had been curtailed by the fiscal consequences of US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions since 2018 impeding “Tehran’s access to traditional government funding streams, including oil exports.”

The report says little about Tehran’s nuclear program other than noting its attempts to gain “leverage” by diminishing adherence to the 2015 deal (the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which the US left in 2018 and which world powers have been struggling to revive for over a year.

Looking ahead, Berrier anticipates a year in which Iran’s response to US and allied “operations…probably would seek to demonstrate strength, reduce Western regional influence, and reestablish deterrence following repeated attacks on Iranian interests in Iran and Syria.” This would likely involve deniable attacks, including cyberoperations, while Tehran sought to avoid “escalation it expects would undermine JCPOA negotiations or impede its goal of compelling a US withdrawal from the region.”

General Erik Kurilla, who was on a tour of Saudi Arabia and Egypt as part of what he called a “listening tour”, told Al Arabiya on Thursday that countering the threat posed by Iran needs regional cooperation.

“I view Iran as the most destabilizing force in the Middle East. The United States’ position is that we will not allow a nuclear Iran. However, our concerns about Iran go beyond its nuclear capability,” the top US military general for the Middle East said.

Describing Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for proxies and Iran-backed militias in the region as other concerns for the US, Kurilla said, “The Iranian threat requires a firm effort from us and our security partners in the region... CENTCOM is committed to that effort.”

About Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with the support of weapons being smuggled in, he said, “We are concerned about the smuggling of advanced conventional munitions by sea to support Houthi operations. Therefore, anti-smuggling operations with the Royal Saudi Naval Forces will serve as an area of focus for me”.

His predecessor General Kenneth F. McKenzie said during his farewell visit before stepping down that the Islamic Republic is the region’s “principal bad actor” and “biggest threat to security”.

An informed source told Reuters on Sunday that the Emir would focus on how to “bridge the gap” in the talk aimed at restoring the 2015 nuclear deal, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which have been in limbo since mid-March.

The Qatari Emir's visit coincided with the presence of EU coordinator of the nuclear talks, Enrique Mora, in Tehran.

Most of Iran's official and semi-official media on Thursday downplayed or completely excluded any mention of possible mediation in the nuclear talks by the Emir and instead focused on reporting the Iranian leader and president's remarks about regional issues and Israel.

However, in a commentary Wednesday, the IRGC-linked Fars news agencydrew attention to the Qatari Emir's and Mora's visits coinciding and also mentioned the visit of a second European official, Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau, to Tehran this week.

"Sheikh Tamim wants to play the role of a mediator between the Islamic Republic and the United States, a role previously entrusted to the Omani king … Russians have also lost the position of mediation between Iran and the United States in the Vienna [talks] after the Ukraine war," Fars wrote. "There is evidence that the common factor in the three visits is energy," Fars also said, surmising that this was because Europe is now after Iranian and Qatari gas to replace supplies from Russia.

Iran made a last-minute demand, when all sides said technical matters have been resolved and a deal was imminent, for the removal of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) from the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) to which the US has not consented.

During his meeting with the Emir, Khamenei emphasized that regional problems can be solved through dialogue among regional countries without any interference of “foreign players.”

“The issues of Yemen and Syria can also be solved through dialogue," he said, adding that "dialogue should not be undertaken from a weak position at a time that the opposite parties, mostly America and others, rely on military and financial power.”

Apparently referring to normalization of relations between Israel and regional Arab countries, Khamenei said regional countries should boost relations with each other as much as possible, because Israel "foments corruption wherever it goes".

In the case of what he called Israeli attacks on the Palestinian neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah in Jerusalem, Khamenei alleged, some Arab countries had offered even less support to Palestinians than some European countries. "Even now, they are still acting like that.”

Arab countries must know that the Israeli regime in not in a strong position to be feared or be relied on, he claimed. The Qatari Emir also condemned the attacks in the meeting and said all regional countries must confront Israeli crimes.

The joint press conference of the Iranian President and the Qatari Emir was also largely focused on regional issues, the Palestine-Israel issue, and the recent killing of an Al Jazeera reporter in Jenin by Israeli forces.

“The existing problems in the region must be settled through constructive dialogue,” Sheikh Tamim told reporters, adding that Tehran and Doha had also discussed the ongoing situation in Palestine, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.