Amid Iran's Defiance, Chances Dim For Reviving Nuclear Deal

One day after the International Atomic Energy Agency passed the resolution, Iran responded by starting to disconnect some 27 cameras and monitoring devices in and around its nuclear sites, as its officials and media continued making defying remarks.

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi said on the state television that “in the name of God and the great nation of Iran, we will not back off a single step from our positions.” The comment was followed by Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh's statement in which he said: "Iran's response to the IAEA resolution will be firm and proportionate."

On Twitter, former reformist lawmaker Mahmoud Sadeghi criticized Raisi for making the comment about the resolution and suggested that he should take measures that would prevent the handing over of Iran's nuclear case to the UN Security Council. Other reformists who have been pushed to the side-lines in the past two years were mostly silent.

Also on Thursday, the IRGC-linked Tasnim News agency carried a video showing an Iranian technician turning off an IAEA inspection camera. Meanwhile, another IRGC-linked news agency, Fars, said in a commentary that the resolution passed by the IAEA Board of Governors "Was a purely political measure to exert pressure on Iran." The agency added that the IAEA's action was "wrong and non-constructive."

Fars quoted an “expert” as saying that the West has been using the IAEA to portray Iran as rogue. He added IAEA Chief that Rafael Grossi's visit to Israel shortly before the Board of Governor's meeting was aimed at portraying Iran as the non-cooperative party in the nuclear negotiations.

Thursday afternoon, Iran's security Chief Ali Shamkhani said in an interview with Fars News Agency that "The only way to defend Iran's rights against international bullies is to resort to reciprocal action." He added that reciprocity is what should be done in JCPOA talks, with the IAEA and at other forums.

Meanwhile, Fada Hossein Maleki, a member of the Iranian Parliament's national security committee told Fars that further measures are on the way to further restrict Iran's cooperation with the IAEA.

In another development, Didban Iran [Iran Monitor] news website reported on Thursday that media outlets close to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as saying that by issuing this resolution, the IAEA and the countries that tabled it have closed the path to the revival of JCPOA. The media outlets close to Ghalibaf also said that the resolution might lead to the end of negotiations and that would be costly for the IAEA.

It is worth noting that the year-long JCPOA talks stopped in March due to Iran’s demands to remove its Revolutionary Guard from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).

International relations expert Mehdi Motaharnia told Khabar Online website that the IAEA resolution will lead to further frictions between Iran and the West, namely the United States and its three European allies, the United Kingdom, France and Germany.

Meanwhile in a brief commentary on Twitter, international relations expert Diako Hosseini attributed Iran's isolation at the IAEA Board of Governors to the poor performance of its foreign ministry which he said could have interacted with the IAEA in a better way during the past year.

In the meantime, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrote in a tweet on Thursday: "The overwhelming majority of the IAEA Board of Governors made clear to Iran that it must provide the IAEA credible cooperation and resolve concerns. At the same time, Iran should use this opportunity to return to full implementation of the JCPOA."

Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) told a news conference in Vienna Thursday that without Iran restoring some of the monitoring equipment it is now removing, the agency would be unable to piece together enough of Tehran’s most important nuclear work for the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), to be worth saving.

Grossi was speaking after Iran overnight told the IAEA it planned to remove further equipment, including cameras, after the 35-member IAEA board Wednesday passed a resolution critical of Iran for not satisfying the agency over the nature and origins of uranium traces found in three sites. Grossi told the press conference this meant that even though more than 40 agency cameras would still operate, “basically all” the extra equipment installed under the 2015 deal would be gone.

Tehran has stressed that it intended to maintain a basic level of monitoring and inspectors’ access as required under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and has argued that questions regarding the uranium traces, which relate to pre-2003 work, are ‘technical’ and should be kept separate from the ‘political’ challenge of reviving the JCPOA.

In this, Iran has been supported by China and Russia, which opposed the IAEA resolution moved Wednesday by France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

But Grossi’s argument is that without the agency being able to understand Iran’s activities during the time it has exceeded JCPOA limits – starting 2019, the year after the United States left the JCPOA – it would be unable to resume its role of certifying that Iran remained within the terms of a revived 2015 agreement.

Contrary to ‘mutual confidence’

­Grossi told the press conference that his greatest potential concern was Iran’s acceleration of earlier announced plans to install more efficient centrifuges, devices that enrich uranium, at its Natanz plant.Such machines, barred under the JCPOA, increase speed and efficiency in raising enrichment levels, when Iran is near to acquiring sufficient highly-enriched uranium for a crude nuclear weapon. “This runs contrary to the idea of providing more mutual confidence,” Grossi said.

Iran decided in November 2020 to begin enriching uranium beyond 5-percent purity, and reduce IAEA access at a time when President-elect Joe Biden had expressed a clear intent to restore the JCPOA.

Grossi agreed with Iran om a temporary arrangement in February 2021 to continue access and monitoring above the level required under the NPT, but these have come under increasing pressure since talks to revive the JCPOA between Iran and six world powers faltered in March.

Strategic interests

It remains unclear what the consequences of the IAEA resolution will be. Some analysts have welcomed the IAEA resolution as a spur to renewed efforts to salvage the JCPOA. There are also voices in Europe, including former European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who have criticized the Biden administration for passivity in the face of domestic politics and warned that failure to restore the deal will promote dangerous instability.

In contrast, Robert Menendez, chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a Democrat, argued Thursday in a tweet welcoming the IAEA resolution that a return to the JCPOA was not in Washington’s strategic interests.

In a speech carried on state television Thursday, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi said that, in the face of the IAEA resolution, “in the name of God and the great nation of Iran, we will not back off a single step from our positions.”

Senator Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) said on Wednesday that “Iran now has enough uranium to produce a nuclear weapon. This latest milestone returns us to a familiar question: At what point will the Administration acknowledge that Iran’s nuclear advances make a return to the 2015 JCPOA not in the United States’ strategic interest?” The Politico reporter who quoted Menendez did not say where he made the remarks. 

He also commended the UN’s “International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors’ approval – by an overwhelming majority – of a resolution condemning Iran, saying, “It is high time the board of governors publicly hold Iran to account for its failure to provide credible and timely cooperation with the IAEA’s inquiry into undeclared nuclear materials, which are in contravention of Iran’s safeguard agreement.” 

Of 35 member states on the board, 30 voted in favor of the resolution sponsored by the ‘E3’ (France, Germany, the United Kingdom) and the United States. India, Libya and Pakistan abstained, while Russia and China voted against.

Menendez reiterated that it is time for a comprehensive strategy to address Iran and the threat it poses, “Iran as it is, not the Iran we might hope for.”

“I commend the Biden administration, and France, Germany, and the United Kingdom for introducing this resolution as a first step to realizing such a strategy,” he added.

Republican Senator Mike Rounds from South Dakota said on Wednesday that “they have intents other than peaceful desires with regards to nuclear weapons. They have clearly been on the road to developing a nuclear weapon from day one.”

Highlighting that Israel is at risk of attacks by Iran, Rounds said the US has done “hopefully” its best to limit the Islamic Republic’s ability to get a nuclear weapon. 

Criticizing the Biden administration's Iran policy, he said that “when you move from one admin to another you have to have a consistent policy.”

He added that he had disagreed in the past and still disagrees with “the proposed settlements between the US and Iran."

Indiana’s Republican Senator Todd Young said the path Iran is pursuing is going to make the country even more isolated, noting, “This is not going to any place good for Iran's leaders. They want to continue to be isolated by the international community.”

Referring to the recent anti-government protests across the country, he said that “If they want to continue to hurt their people who have recently been rising up against their leadership because of their economic circumstances, then they're doing the right thing. If instead, they would like to enjoy prosperity and opportunity for their people and longer-term security, they're going to need to abide by the terms in the spirit of IAEA mandates to go in and look at all the facilities to ensure Iran is not trying to develop nuclear weapons."

The semi-official ISNA news website on Thursday quoted an informed source that in reaction to the resolution, Tehran would speed up production and installation of IR-6, IR-4 and IR-2 centrifuge machines. On Wednesday, Iran had also announced it was disconnecting two monitoring devices installed by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), anticipating the passage of the resolution.

ISNA also reported that Tehran has informed the IAEA about its decisions.

However, the United States, its European allies, Israel and other countries expressed satisfaction at the overwhelming passage of the resolution on Wednesday.

“We, the Governments of France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, welcome the IAEA Board of Governors’ adoption of a resolution responding to Iran’s insufficient cooperation with the IAEA…” a joint statement said after the vote.

Russia and China, the Islamic Republic’s allies, were isolated in the June 8 meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors.

Of 35 members states on the board, 30 voted in favor of the resolution sponsored by the ‘E3’ (France, Germany, the United Kingdom) and the United States. India, Libya and Pakistan abstained, while Russia and China voted against.

“The overwhelming majority vote at the IAEA Board of Governors today sends an unambiguous message to Iran that it must meet its safeguards obligations and provide technically credible clarifications on outstanding safeguards issues,” the joint statement added.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman reacted swiftly by condemning the resolution.

Israeli officials, who had campaigned to highlight Tehran’s lack of cooperation with the IAEA, expressed their satisfaction with the outcome. “In addition to condemnation, the international community must take concrete steps,” defense minister Benny Gantz tweeted, adding that every monitoring device “that is turned off should be met with diplomatic and economic sanctions.”

The resolution called on Iran to engage with the IAEA without delay and expressed “profound concern” at Iran’s failure to satisfy the agency over traces of uranium found at three undeclared sites and highlighted last week in a report from IAEA director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi.

The resolution comes with year-long talks paused since March between Iran and six world powers aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), and with continuing preparations in Israel for an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Earlier in the day before the vote, Iran reacted by announcing that it would turn off two monitoring devices installed by the IAEA at its nuclear installations, a decision that the US condemned.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry welcomed the resolution, urging the Islamic Republic to cooperate with the UN nuclear watchdog without any delay. Like Israelis, the Saudis have reason to be concerned with Iran’s nuclear program and supported former US president Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA.

Riyadh has been concerned with President Joe Biden’s policy of trying to restore the agreement, which would result in sanctions relief for Tehran, its staunch opponent in the region.

The US, however, did not try to show a victory lap. Officials emphasized that they do not want to escalate the situation with Iran and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized that the talks aimed at reviving the JCPOA should remain separate from the safeguards and IAEA monitoring issue that brought about the resolution.

However, few believe that the two issues can remain separate and the stalled nuclear talks not to be affected by the turn of events at the IAEA board. Every Iranian retaliation, such as turning off IAEA monitoring equipment, could become an additional complicating factor in the Vienna talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.