Russia’s Lavrov In Tehran As Iran Seeks Post-Ukraine Realignment

Iran’s ambassador to China, Mohammad Keshavarzzadeh, said on Thursday that Wang made the remarks in a phone talk with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

He said the BRICS summit – a conference attended by the heads of state of the five member states Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- the issue of Afghanistan as well as the latest developments in Iran nuclear talks were among the topics of the conversation. 

While China supports pushing forward the Vienna negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, Beijing has kept close communication with Tehran since the talks stalled in March, reportedly because of Iran’s insistence for the removal of its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).

Earlier in the week, Tehran again blamed Washington for lack of progress in talks, saying it is ready to resume negotiations to achieve a “good deal”. But a good deal for Iran means something very different from what the US says is possible.

The Biden Administration that came to office with a promise to restore the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, says that it is ready to lift nuclear-related sanctions imposed by its predecessor but does not want to discuss “extraneous issues,” meaning sanctions imposed by the Trump administration over support for terrorism or other violations by Iran and Iranian entities.

Tasnim quoted IRGC's Public Relations spokesman Ramazan Sharif as saying that IRGC Commander Hossein Salami has appointed Kazemi as the IRGC's new intelligence chief on Thursday, June 23.

IRGC social media outlets Wednesday night ended nearly two days of rumors about the "dismissal" of Taeb, announcing that he has been removed from his post, but he will be appointed to a higher position.

Sharif told Tasnim that Hossein Taeb has been appointed as an "adviser" to the IRGC commander, a clear sign that the former intelligence chief has been demoted. Meanwhile, the fact that Taeb's removal and Kazemi's appointment is announced by a low-key IRGC officer rather than Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who directly oversees the IRGC Intelligence is another indication that Taeb has been dismissed from his job.

Tasnim placed the news about Taeb under its top story which is about Lavrov's visit in an elaborate attempt to downplay the development. The report's headline is also about Kazemi's appointment rather than Taeb's removal.

In recent weeks there were multiple mysterious incidents in which IRGC officers and operatives were killed or died in unexplained circumstances. Iran blamed Israel for some of the incidents.

According to Sharif, Kazermi has been the IRGC Intelligence Organization's counter-intelligence chief for many years and is highly experienced in intelligence and security matters. Kazemi is a brigadier general while Taeb was a cleric with some military experience that dated back to the 1980s war with Iraq.

According to political analyst Morteza Kazemian, Taeb, one of the most feared men in Iran's security system, was the second strongest man in the country's intelligence system only after Khamenei. Kazemian added that Taeb maintained good relations with Khamenei's son Mojtaba, a former comrade during the war.

Meanwhile, Kazemian suggested that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visiting Tehran on Thursday, possibly carried a message that revealed flaws in Taeb's performance. In a press conference in Tehran Lavrov Thuesday did refer to an "intelligence protection agreement|" with Tehran, wihtout elaboration.

Taeb was recently harshly criticized by social media activists and some politicians for failing to detect and prevent Israel's destructive operations in Iran.

Social media activists also said that the change on top of the IRGC Intelligence Organization revealed a divide in the organization that was already noticed after several leaks. On the other hand, the fact that an Israeli news outlet, Kaan News reported Taeb's removal from his post several days before its confirmation by Iranian officials, was another indication that Israel had access to insider information from the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

Furthermore, the choice of the new chief from the counter-intelligence unit, points out the fact that the reason for the change was something happening within the organization where Kazemi was in a better position to detect the leaks.

Social media activist and war veteran Hadi Mehrani said in a tweet that the change will have major repercussions and significant events are likely to take place in Iran.

The spokesman for Iran's Reform Front, Ali Shakouri Rad also said in a tweet on the same date that: Taeb's removal is a very important development which requires to be elaborated as the organization has a major role in elections and the running of the affairs of the state in Iran."

During an interview with a New York Times columnist on June 21, Bennett said when Iranians “hit us through proxies or directly, they will pay a price in Iran.” 

Describing what he calls his “Octopus doctrine,” he said Israel hits Tehran at the head of the octopus rather than its tentacles that have spread across the region.

Bennett added, “It turns out these guys are more vulnerable than they seem. The Iranian regime is rotten, corrupt — and incompetent.”

Bennet accused Tehran of “violating fundamental requirements” of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and seeking to strike Israel directly using unmanned aerial vehicle.

Late in May, the New York Times quoted an Israeli intelligence official as saying that Tel Aviv has informed American officials it was responsible for the killing of Colonel Hassan Sayyad-Khodaei -- a member of IRGC’ Quds Force in Tehran, adding that the Israelis killed him as a warning to Iran to halt the operations of a covert group within the Quds Force known as Unit 840, tasked with abductions and assassinations of foreigners around the world, including Israeli civilians and officials. Israel later denied the country took responsibility for the assassination.

Iran’s High Council for Human Rights, which is part of the international affairs department of the judiciary, said on Thursday that the verdict was issued by Branch 55 of the Tehran Legal Court over Washington’s violations of international obligations through its support and assistance for Israel in committing “terrorist acts against nuclear scientists.”

IRNA said the lawsuit was filed by “the martyrs' families” over the physical, psychological and financial damage that they endured due to the killings.

According to the court ruling, $2.150 billion was due to the material and moral damages inflicted on the plaintiffs, and the same amount has been considered as punitive measures. The ruling, as reported by state media did not name the plaintiffs.

The move can be a belated reaction to many civil lawsuits in the United States seeking damages for Iran by those whose family members were killed in various acts of political violence, in which Iran had a direct or alleged role.

Until 2016, US courts had awarded plaintiffs a total of $56 billion to be paid by Iran or Iranian entities. A few more billions of dollars have been awarded since 2016.

Some have argued, that this large amounts of pending judgements against Iran is a factor in Iran’s calculations to reach a nuclear agreement to lift US sanctions. The monetary judgements could be a factor in deterring companies from investing in Iran or doing business with it even after sanctions would be lifted.

The defendants in the case are 37 American individuals and entities, including the US government, the State Department, the Department of Defense, the US National Security Agency, former presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Assistant Secretary of State Brian Hook, and former Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter.

But the defendants have no assets under Iranian jurisdiction to be seized, and the move by the Tehran court, under the government’s political control, could be a bargaining ploy or simply a propaganda act for domestic audiences.

The US has played an effective role in “establishing, strengthening and supporting Israel as a terrorist regime,” and each year donates hundreds of millions of dollars in direct economic and military support to the regime, the court ruling read.

Over the past years, several Iranian nuclear scientists have been the target of assassinations, which Iran blames on Israel. Between 2010 and 2012, four Iranian nuclear scientists — Masoud Alimohammadi, Majid Shahriari, Darioush Rezaeinejad and Ahmadi Roshan — were assassinated, while another, Fereydoon Abbasi, was wounded in an attempted murder. Roshan was the head of a department at the Natanz nuclear facility and was assassinated by a magnetic bomb.

In the latest case, Iran blamed Israel for the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, said to be Iran’s top nuclear man, in November 2020 in a highly complicated operation east of the capital Tehran involving a remote-controlled one-ton automated weapon that had been smuggled into the country in pieces.

Iran has also accused Israel of sabotage operations against its nuclear facilities including an explosion in April 2021 that inflicted major damage to the Natanz uranium enrichment site.

Israel has never officially taken responsibility for any of these assassinations and sabotage operations but also has never denied involvement.

The report says Iran's steel production declined 17.6% year-on-year in May to 2.3 million tons.

In April also, the figure plunged 20.7 percent to 2.2 million tons, according to this report.

Iran is the 10th largest steel producer in the world just behind Brazil. China is the undisputed producer with close to 100 million tons of monthly output. Production of all the top ten suppliers declined in the first 5 months of 2022, except India that had an increase of 6.5 percent. But Iran had the highest drop. An 8.7 percent reduction in China could be due to strict Covid lockdowns.

Production loss in Iran, however, was not related to the pandemic. There were no lockdowns in 2022, as cases dropped dramatically after a vaccination drive. Iran's Shargh daily newspaper quoted Iranian steel industry officials in mid-May as saying that Russia was pushing Iran's steel exports lower by dumping its products in Asia after losing its Western markets due to sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine.

Reza Shahrestani, a member of the Board of Directors of Iran Steel Producers Association told Shargh Daily that Russia is dumping its steel products by giving 15 to 20% discount: Iran's traditional markets including China, South Korea, Taiwan and Afghanistan are buying Russian steel now.

At the same time, Tejaratnews Daily reported that Iran's direct reduced iron (DRI) export plunged to zero in the first month of the current fiscal year (March 20-April 21).

After the media raised concerns, Omid Ghalibaf the spokesman of Iran's Ministry of Industry, Trade and Mines claimed that the country's steel exports increased by 10% during first two months of the current fiscal year (March 20-May 21) to 1.06 million tons.

However, this figure and the growth in steel exports claimed by the spokesman are questionable because Iran usually exports above 33% of its steel output to international markets. The country produced 4.5 million tons of steel during the period mentioned by Ghalibaf's. Therefore, Iran should have exported at least 1.5 million tons of steel, not 1.06 million tons.

The decline in Iran’s crude steel production in April and May impacted its overall number for 2022. While its production level was normal until end of March, the reduction in that month turned its balance sheet negative for 2022. It produced 11.4 million tons of raw steel in January-May 2022, about 10.8% less than the same period of 2021.

Amid United States' sanctions on Iran's oil exports, steel is one of the main exports earning foreign currency for the governmetn, which faces a serious financial crunch. A report this week revealed above 50-percent inflation for Mya-June compared to the same perios last year, with food prices jumping more than 80 percent.