Iran-US On Brink Of ‘Indirect’ Nuclear Talks In Qatar
Iran’s Tasnim news reported Monday that lead negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani was heading to Doha Tuesday for indirect talks with the US over the 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran’s Tasnim news reported Monday that lead negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani was heading to Doha Tuesday for indirect talks with the US over the 2015 nuclear deal.
This came with expectations firming of indirect United States-Iran talks over restoring the agreement – the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – but with no indication of how gaps would be bridged.
“Resuming negotiations doesn’t mean we’re closer to agreement,” Mohammad Marandi, advisor to Iran’s nuclear negotiators and a de facto spokesman, told media outlets in Tehran. “America hasn’t yet taken the necessary decisions.”
Saeed Khatibzadeh, foreign ministry spokesman, said Monday Iran would “wait and see if the Americans will part with Trump’s legacy and if Borrell’s messages become a reality.”
In visiting Iran, Josep Borrell, the European Union foreign policy chief, announced Saturday that Iran and the US had agreed to renew contacts. Year-long talks in Vienna over reviving the 2015 deal, abandoned by President Donald Trump 2018, paused in March with a draft text largely agreed but with outstanding questions left for the US and Iran to resolve.
The Iranian media has reported that new indirect talks between the US and Iran will take place in Doha, Qatar, with EU representatives acting as go-betweens. In Vienna, formal talks involved all remaining JCPOA participants – China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, and the United Kingdom – with US negotiators based in a separate hotel.
There have been suggestions in recent months that Qatar has tried to mediate. Talks between the US and Iran leading up to the 2015 deal – the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) – took place in Oman.
US officials have confirmed to American media outlets that Washington has agreed to a new round of talks, but have also been suggested their expectations were low.
The greatest obstacles in the Vienna talks centered on reaching agreement over which US sanctions contravened the JCPOA, which ruled out “discriminatory regulatory and procedural requirements in lieu of the sanctions,” and exactly how Iran’s nuclear program, expanded incrementally since 2019, would be brought back within JCPOA limits.
Israeli ‘sabotage’
Tehran has specifically argued that some sanctions introduced by Trump under other rubrics, including ‘terrorism,’ were designed to stymie efforts to restore the JCPOA. Biden administration officials, although committed to restoring the deal, have accused Iran of thereby introducing demands not relevant to the JCPOA.
In recent days, there have been suggestions of some compromise over the US listing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, part of its armed forces, as a ‘foreign terrorist organization.’ While Tehran has requested this rescinded – it was done by Trump in 2019 – there has been criticism of such a proposed move by politicians in Washington.
Borrell’s apparent success in reviving the talks provoked a spat in Israel, with Defense Minister Benny Gantz taking to Twitter to dismiss reports that Israeli military intelligence chiefs favored restoring the JCPOA.
Politico reported Sunday that Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid had told Borrell he was “very disappointed” with the EU foreign policy chief’s mission to Tehran, calling it a “strategic mistake that sends the wrong message to Iran.” Politico suggested Brussels in turn saw Lapid as trying to “sabotage the negotiations.”
Some media outlets in Iran, not directly under government management, have published interviews with local pundits about the prospects of more nuclear talks with the United States, after the visit Saturday of the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to Tehran.
The visit ended in a positive tone that Tehran and Washington might resume indirect talks after a hiatus since March, in a Persian Gulf country, apparently without the participation of Russia and China, two other signatories of the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA.
Diako Hosseini, a well-known political analyst in Tehran told the Islamic Labour News Agency (ILNA), expressed confidence that Iran was already tilting toward renewed talks, even before the recent visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Tehran. He did not say how if Lavrov’s meetings with Iranian officials helped convince them to respond positively to Borrell, or as some other Iranian experts believe, Moscow has never been helpful in Iran’s nuclear talks.
Hosseini argued that both Iran and the United States see the JCPOA as serving their interests and if talks resume, this would be the last round and agreement will be at hand.
Asked how the two sides would resolve their outstanding differences, the analyst said that it is possible they would push points of contention to future talks and focus on reviving the 2015 deal, which President Doanld Trump abandoned in 2018.
Tehran has been demanding the removal of its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO). Washington has rejected the demand so far, saying that the IRGC sanctions are not related to the nuclear issue and are “extraneous” to the talks.
Hosseini seemed to be suggesting that Iran could decide not to insist on this or other demands, with an agreement to discuss them after an deal to return to the JCPOA.
“If there is a will to reach an agreement, it is possible to find formulas so that the remaining differences do not to prevent a restoration of the JCPOA,” he said.
Borrell during his visit also spoke about shared interests with Iran over energy resources. Asked if this means Europe is ready to make separate deals with Iran, Hosseini responded that there would be no guarantees from Europe but perhaps “incentives” would be offered.
Reza Nasri, another Tehran-based analyst speaking to Rouydad24 website, dismissed demands often voiced by Iranian officials for iron-clad guarantees that the US would not pull out of an agreement in the future and Europe would be forthcoming in full economic cooperation.
“In all countries, including Iran, there is concept of national interest or ‘Raison d'état’ which allows states based on sovereignty – with their unilateral decision – to abrogate any guarantee or legal obligation toward another country,” he said. Indirectly referring to Iranian officials, he quipped that “Those who beat the drums of receiving guarantees, should say what kind of guarantee they want from America that only addresses one issue.”
He also expressed the view that fast changing global conditions in recent months might have also changed calculations in Washington and Tehran.
Nasri went on to say the best guarantee is creating conditions in which the other side calculates that “breaking an agreement is more harmful than staying committed.”