US, Iran In Same Doha Hotel For ‘Proximity Talks’

In a communique from Elmau, Germany, the G7 (Group of Seven – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) placed the onus on Tehran to take “the opportunity to conclude a deal.” They said the G7 was committed to “working together, and with other international partners, to address the threat posed to international security by Iran’s nuclear escalation.”

The leaders also called on Iran “to stop all ballistic missile activities and proliferation inconsistent with UNSCR 2231 and other UNSC resolutions.” United Nations Security Resolution 2231 both endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal – the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) – and called on Iran “not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons…” Iran says none of its missile are designed for atomic weapons.

The G7 also condemned “the continued human rights violations and abuses in Iran.” They called on Iran “to end arbitrary arrest and detention of foreign and dual nationals for the purposes of political leverage.” Foreign governments and human rights organizations have accused Iran of detaining foreigners to secure concessions.

G7 leaders urged Iran to provide “technically credible information” to the International Atomic Energy Agency over what the agency says are unexplained uranium traces in sites related to work before 2003.

The meeting signals the start of indirect talks between Iran and the United States to resolve their outstanding differences for restoring the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA.

Mora has been the EU coordinator in the nuclear negotiations, that lasted 11 months in the Austrian capital Vienna and now are set to resume between Tehran and Washington in Doha.

The complicated negotiations aimed to restore the JCPOA that former US President Donald Trump abandoned in May 2018.

IRNA has so far not offered any details of what discussed between the Iranian and EU diplomats.

During a trip last weekend to Tehran the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell agreed with Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to resume talks with the US, but the two sides changed the venue to Qatar.

The talks in Vienna came to a standstill in March apparently on Iran’s demand asking the US to remove its Revolutionary Guard from Washington’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. The Biden Administration has so far not accepted the demand, but Iran has agreed to resume indirect talks with EU mediation.

With the change of venue, Russia and China, signatories of the JCPOA, apparently will not be present in the talks.

But Qatari optimism, which has seen the Persian Gulf state mediate in recent months, was not shared by United States and European officials, nor by opponents of the 2015 deal in Tehran.

The Virginia-based Politico news-site quoted a US official with “very low expectations” and two “senior Western officials” sharing the American’s pessimism and saying they expected the talks to last only two or three days.

In announcing the new round of talks while in Tehran Saturday, the European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said nuclear talks in Vienna had been suspended in March with both Iran and the US needing to answer “questions.”

Those talks – involving Iran, and six world powers including indirectly the US – reportedly reached a broad understanding of what was needed to revive the JCPOA but did not bring complete agreement over which US sanctions were incompatible with the 2015 deal, which the US left in 2018. Iran was particularly irked over the inclusion since 2019 of its Revolutionary Guards on a US list of sanctioned ‘foreign terrorist organizations.’

While there have been suggestions from analysts as to how such obstacles might be cleared, the US and Iran have continued to place the onus on the other to move.

Go-betweens

Enrique Mora, a senior EU official, chaired the Vienna talks and is expected to lead a team of European officials in Qatar acting as go-betweens for US and Iranian negotiators. Iran has refused to meet the US directly.

Qatar’s role may be less formal. The Persian Gulf state has good relations with both Washington and Tehran, and played a discrete but effective role in negotiations between the US administration of President Donald Trump and the Taliban that led to their 2020 agreement over US military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

But opponents of restoring the JCPOA are vocal in both Tehran and the US. In Israel, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has slammed military and intelligence leaders – including reportedly the head of military intelligence Major General Aaron Haliva– who favor the JCPOA.

It remains unclear whether the US encouraging Israeli-Saudi military cooperation as a way to reconcile the two states to a revived JCPOA, or as a genuine attempt to bolster a new regional defense architecture against Iran and its regional allies, including Hezbollah, and Ansar Allah in Yemen.

Last chance?

Some analysts see the Qatar talks as the last chance for the US and Iran to agree over bringing back the JCPOA.

Robert Malley, the US special envoy who leads the US negotiators in Qatar, told the Senate in May that the US would continue to work to restore the JCPOA as long as “we assess that the non-proliferation benefits of a return to the deal are worth the sanctions lifting we would need to provide.”

Critics of the JCPOA argue any benefits are running out. Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told a news conference in Vienna June 9 that, given Iran’s restrictions on agency monitoring, four weeks remained to restore enough inspector’s access to avoid a “fatal blow” to the IAEA’s ability to certify the Iranian nuclear program as peaceful. Iran began exceeding JCPOA limits in 2019, the year after the US left the agreement, and is now enriching uranium to 60 percent, far above the 3.67 percent allowed under the JCPOA.

In a statement, the Qatari Foreign Ministry said the talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal – the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – would be coordinated by the European Union.

Ali Bagheri-Kani, leading the Iranian delegation, arrived in Doha Tuesday morning. Welcoming him, Tehran’s ambassador Hamidreza Dehghani, tweeted, "Without any prejudice and expression of unrealistic pessimism or optimism, I wish them success in carrying out their important mission.”

United States special envoy Robert Malley met Tuesday with Qatar's Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. The US embassy said they discussed “the strong partnership and our joint diplomatic efforts to address issues with Iran.”

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reiterated Monday that restoring the JCPOA was the best way to preclude any possible Iranian path to a nuclear weapon, and reiterated that Washington put the onus on Tehran to make the necessary moves. “There is a deal available on the table to Iran, and it’s up to Iran to decide whether or not it wants to take it,” Sullivan said.

Some analysts portray the talks – which, although US and Iran still talk indirectly, are separate to stalled Vienna talks between Iran and six world powers – as the last chance for Washington and Tehran to revive the JCPOA. 

Hardline newspaper Kayhan on Monday carried a frontpage headline that said: "Negotiations in Qatar is a trap. We should not reward America."

Kayhan and its chief editor Hossein Shariatmadari are affiliated with the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The Kayhan wrote, "The venue of the negotiations is not the main issue. What matters is that we should not reward the United States for sending [EU Foreign Policy chief] Josep Borrell to Tehran and laying a diplomatic trap for Iran. We should not be overwhelmed and should not welcome the continuation of the negotiations, which means stepping back from our positions and our main condition."

After year-long talks in Vienna came to a standstill in March, it became apparent that Tehran was insisting on the removal of its Revolutionary Guard from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations.

Meanwhile, many Iranians on social media noted that Borrel simply used the term Gulf when speaking about the venue of the talks, a sensitive issue for Iranians who reject a habit by international media and politicians to call the Persian Gulf, simply “Gulf”, or “Arabian Gulf” in rare cases.

It also listed several headlines from US and regional media that said the US ‘maximum pressure’ policy has failed and Iran's position has been strengthening during the past months. The Kayhan insisted that "Iran is powerful" and then asked: "Why should we need negotiation with the evil and criminal West?"

Kayhan also expressed concern that "negotiating in the region might undermine the interests of Russia and China, the two countries that have voted against the IAEA Board of Governor's resolution against Iran." The daily then called on Iranian diplomats to insist on the lifting of all sanctions against Iran, to verify US measures and demand guarantees from Washington."

Meanwhile in an interview with the reformist Arman Emrooz newspaper, former diplomat Jalal Sadatian warned that Iran should not be optimistic toward the upcoming round of negotiations although it looks like that the meeting in Qatar is going to have a more serious approach to the nuclear issue than the ones in Vienna.

Nonetheless, he was not optimistic about the upcoming talks as he believed that “Russia is still against an agreement” and that is why Moscow sent Foreign Minister Lavrov to Tehran shortly before Borrell's visit

Foreign relations analyst and former lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh told Arman Emrooz that the West has realized pressures on Iran has brought it closer to te East (China) where it is selling its oil. He added that under pressure from the energy implications of the war in Ukraine, the West is trying to embrace Iran once again before the next winter.

Bakhshayesh echoed what Sadatian also said that Iranian and US negotiators will talk face to face without any need for mediators. However, he did not explain why he thinks so. He added that Russia has the upper hand in Ukraine and the West needs to find a replacement for the oil from Russia and Iran seems to be the best possible replacement.

Meanwhile, foreign policy analyst Diako Hosseini said in an interview with ILNA that both Iran and the United States see the JCPOA as serving their interests and if talks resume, this would be the last round and an agreement will be at hand.