US Mid-Term Elections Cast Shadow Over Iran Nuclear Talks
United States mid-term Congressional elections due November 8 may bring to Washington more opponents of talks aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
United States mid-term Congressional elections due November 8 may bring to Washington more opponents of talks aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 35 of 100 Senate seats, are up for grabs, with the Democrats currently holding a majority in both houses, 220 against 210 in the House, and a waver-thin 51-50 in the Senate with the vote of the vice-president.
While some Democrats are skeptical of President Joe Biden’s approach to Iran, and not all Republicans backed President Donald Trump in leaving the 2015 nuclear deal, Democrats broadly back the Biden administration’s approach.
While a shift in the composition of Congress would be in line with a common mid-term swing against any administration, analysts are reluctant to make predictions. There are a swathe of contentious issues including rising prices, the Supreme Court and abortion rights, and continuing exposure of Trump’s role in the January 6 Capitol Hill riots.
US State Department Spokesman Ned Price reiterated Tuesday there was no specific timeline for talks over the Iran nuclear deal, with Washington’s approach depending on a “technical assessment of Iran’s nuclear program versus non-proliferation benefits” of the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
US-Iran engagement is expected to resume after Biden’s July 13-16 Middle East trip. Challenges reportedly remain in bridging differences over sanctions, including the business operations of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, which the US included in 2019 in its list of ‘foreign terrorist organizations.’ Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian again raised Tuesday during a trip to Tehran by his Qatari counterpart, what he said was a US failure to give Tehran assurances that it would not impede Iran’s access to the world economy if the JCPOA were revived and that it would not again quit the agreement.
Awaiting decisions
Following last week’s unsuccessful ‘proximity’ talks between Iran and the US in Qatar, the White House special Iran envoy Rob Malley told National Public Radio Tuesday that “the discussion that really needs to take place now is in Iran.”
But if the US leadership awaits decisions in Tehran, there are also suggestions – including from Sina Azodi of the Atlantic Council – that the Iranian leadership awaits developments in the US, specifically with the mid-term elections.
Having survived nearly four years of US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, Iran is wary of further upsets that would result from the lifting and subsequent reimposition of sanctions. Even short of the 2024 US presidential election, Republicans’ capture of Congress could diminish Tehran’s belief in the advantages of applying the JCPOA and so complicate Biden’s efforts to restore the agreement.
Congressional review
Among Republicans touting a more assertive Congressional role over Iran, Gabriel Noronha, special advisor for Iran 2019-21 under President Donald Trump, argued in a piece in The Hill in late June for strengthening the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), passed 2015 which allowed a 60-day congressional review of any nuclear deal with Iran. Noronha argued that “a new Iran agreement” should “proceed” only with a majority vote in the Senate.
Narounha wrote this would “will help strengthen US negotiators’ position at future talks and help ensure that negotiators do not get so invested in sealing a deal that they cave to the Iranians at the finish line.” It would also “promote the permanency of any future deal.”
In a series of tweets in on July 5, Narounha highlighted various moves in the House of Representatives to strengthen the INARA, including efforts to “close the various loopholes the administration could use to avoid submitting the deal to Congress…”
Answering a question by Iran International’s correspondent Samira Gharaei and another reporter at the Tuesday briefing about when the US would conclude that there is no hope for success in the nuclear negotiations, State Department spokesman Ned Price said, "The reason it's impossible to put a timeframe is it isn't based on a political decision, but on a technical assessment of Iran's nuclear program versus non-proliferation benefits of the JCPOA."
US officials have said Iran already has accumulated enough enriched uranium to produce a bomb and critics wonder when the current situation would reach a point for the United States and its allies to walk away for the talks and adopt a different approach. The administration in January had said that the last chance for Iran was sometime at the end of February, and then negotiations broke down in March.
About US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley’s remarks earlier in the day on US waiting for an answer from Tehran, he said, “The answer that not only the US is waiting for, but also that our European allies are waiting for is a decision on the part of the Iranian government to fully return to compliance with the JCPOA.”
“It is not clear to us, based on what we have heard from the Iranians indirectly; from our European allies; that they have made that political commitment. There has been a deal on the table that is more or less finalized for several months now,” he added.
Price said, “In recent weeks and recent months, rather than make that political commitment to return to compliance with the JCPOA, Iran has consistently introduced extraneous demands that go beyond the four walls of the JCPOA.” “To introduce anything that goes beyond the narrow confines of the JCPOA suggests a lack of seriousness, a lack of commitment.”
He highlighted, “We are at a point where a lack of forward momentum, a lack of progress is tantamount to backtracking,” adding that "Current assessment of experts and intelligence community is that the Iran agreement on the table right now is far preferable to where we are now.”
The US has said that that the West made an offer to Iran in December after nine months of talks in Vienna and the ball is in Tehran’s court.
Malley told National Public Radio Tuesday that last week’s Qatar talks between Tehran and Washington had been a waste of time.
Malley said the European Union – whose leading official Enrique Mora acted as a go-between in Qatar – had “put on the table very detailed outlines of what they think a fair outcome would be, and we’ve said we’re prepared to take that deal; the party that has not said yes is Iran.”
Iran’s Hostage Taking Policy
In response to a question about Belgium's controversial treaty on the exchange of convicts with Iran and whether the US is pursuing a different path to handle the Islamic Republic’s hostage policy, Price said the US has a near term goal when it comes to its citizens detained in Iran as well as a long-term goal.
“Our near-term goal is to see to it that those who are at the present moment held unjustly and wrongfully... are released.” The longer-term goal, he said, “is to create and reinforce a norm against this horrific practice; to see to it that the international community speaks with one voice and acts together.” He added that the US is working with allies to lay the ground to achieve this.
Price went on to say the US is monitoring several “egregious cases of Europeans and dual citizens” held in Iran such as Swedish-Iranian academic Ahmadreza Djalali, adding that “we echo concerns from UN experts that the situation... is truly horrific.”
Numerous people and groups from around the world have warned about the prisoner exchange treaty between Belgium and Iran, warning Belgian politicians against “giving the green light to state terrorism," and demanding that the bill be abandoned.
The treaty by the Belgian government that parliament is debating for approval could lead to the release of Assadollah Assadi, an Iranian diplomat serving a 20-year prison sentence in Belgium for “attempted murder and involvement in terrorism” for his role plotting to bomb a gathering of the exiled opposition group Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK) near Paris in 2018.
The committee was due to vote on the bill on Tuesday but adjourned the session until Wednesday after nearly four hours of debate. It is likely to be put before the full 150-member chamber on Thursday.