Iran Says Too Early To Judge Nuclear Talks But Progress Made

In addition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, “they discussed ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, the need to strengthen support for partners in the Middle East region, and joint efforts to deter and constrain Iran’s destabilizing regional activities," the White House said in its description of the call among the four allies. It did not provide any further details about the issues concerning the Middle East.

US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz participated in the call.

Last week, the European Union and United States said they were studying Iran's response to what the EU described as a "final" proposal to restore the deal. 

Earlier in the day, Mohammad Marandi, the de facto spokesman for Iran's nuclear negotiating team, said that Tehran has received considerable concessions from Washington in the nuclear talks.

A leaked report from Tehran on Friday, August 19, said that Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani had given local reporters in a closed-door briefing a list of “concessions” obtained from the United States.

These included exempting a range of Iranian government-linked entities from sanctions imposed for their role in Iran’s terror-related activities, and a pledge not to sanction any entity for links with the Revolutionary Guard.

During his address at a conference attended by a selection of clergymen on Sunday, Ebrahim Raisi said, “We will not back down on the nation’s rights at any meeting or negotiation” alluding to the ongoing talks on restoring the nuclear accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Claiming that his administration has achieved many of its goals, he said his government “will not tie people’s livelihood to any external factor and will persevere in its effort to solve the problems facing the country and people.”

Raisi made the remarks amid speculations about the fate of the JCPOA after Iran conveyed its response to an EU-proposed draft to conclude the Vienna talks. 

However, Nour News, a website affiliated with the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Shamkhani, said on Sunday that although in recent days many speculations and statements were made about the nature of Iran's response and US views, until parties present in Vienna Talks speak officially, none of this can reflect current realities. 

Mohammad Marandi, who acts as de facto spokesman for Iran's nuclear negotiating team, also said on Sunday that final steps remain to be taken to achieve an agreement, but "evidence shows that the US reaction is clear, and they know they should cooperate with Iran and our negotiating team in these final steps."

In an interview with Jameh Jam newspaper published by Iran’s state broadcaster, IRIB, Marandi said that “The achievements of the Islamic Republic in the nuclear talks in the past one month were exceptional.”

A leaked report from Tehran on Friday, August 19, said that Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani had given local reporters in a closed-door briefing a list of “concessions” obtained from the United States.

These included exempting a range of Iranian government-linked entities from sanctions imposed for their role in Iran’s terror-related activities, and a pledge not to sanction any entity for links with the Revolutionary Guard.

Marandi seemed to confirm Bagheri-Kani’s reported remarks in general terms. “We were able to achieve huge progress in all areas, including guarantees, verification and sanctions issues, as well as issues related to the IAEA.”

The US-born Iranian official mentioned two reasons for this success. First he claimed that Iran resisted US sanctions by relying on its own means, and second, the negotiating team was “patient” and did not rush into a deal, until the other side relented.

”These achievements, of course, were the result of the new negotiating team paying attention to the point that if we had concluded an agreement in haste, we had to pay the price for it later,” Marandi claimed.

In a sense, his point seems to be supported by the fact that Tehran has dragged out the Vienna negotiations from June 2021 to the present. Critics of the Biden Administration’s negotiating tactics repeatedly pointed out that Iran is buying time and wearing down the US side, and a definite deadline should be set, but the West failed to enforce its own warnings to Tehran on 11 separate occasions.

Another possible negotiating failure was what Marandi called resistance against sanctions. Iran’s economy, which was already in crisis last year, experienced more shocks and a dismal performance in 2022, but it was able to bear the burden because of higher oil exports since the President Joe Biden took office.

The President’s early signal that he was ready to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA, emboldened China to buy more oil from Iran. Exports jumped from around 250,000 barrels per day in 2019 to close to one million bpd in January 2022.

“This increased our capacity in the nuclear talks and gradually changed the mind of the other side, about the impact of economic pressures and sanctions on the atmosphere of the negotiations,” Marandi insisted.

Another factor reassuring Iran’s rulers that they could withstand economic pressure was their willingness to use military force against unrest by an impoverished population. This scenario, which has played out repeatedly since 2017 in Iran, was once again demonstrated during protests in May.

Marandi acknowledged that a nuclear deal is not yet final but expressed confidence that the United States will play by Iran’s tune.

”Of course, final steps remain, and results should be obtained, but evidence shows America’s response is clear and they know that during these final steps they should cooperate with the Islamic Republic and our negotiating team.”

During his address to the Iranian education sector's directors in Tehran on Sunday, Mohammad Eslami said that in accordance with the country’s roadmap for the expansion of its nuclear industry, the AEOI has decided to establish schools in the cities with nuclear facilities, from the elementary school level, to start training nuclear scientists for the next generation of the country’s nuclear program. 

Eslami also claimed, “Everyone should know that the nuclear fuel cycle is a power-generating one, and has nothing to do with building a bomb,” adding that the West levels “spurious allegations against Iran and wrongfully accuses us of attempts to produce a nuclear bomb only because they do not want us to acquire nuclear technology.”

“Despite fierce opposition expressed in recent years to Iran’s heavy water production, we have managed to build on our relevant expertise both in the atomic industry and molecular sector,” he added. 

Late in July, Eslami said members of parliament are seeking to legislate a 50-year nuclear roadmap so change of administrations cannot influence the program. 

Around the same time, two Telegram channels with links to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard suggested that “Iran may build nuclear warheads “in the shortest possible time” if attacked by the US or Israel.

Iran has now enriched enough uranium to 60 percent that if further enriched to 90 percent, the fissile material will be sufficient for a nuclear bomb within a few weeks.

The US dollar has dropped from a high of 330,000 rials in June to around 280,000 in Tehran’s exchange market as of Sunday morning local time. That could help prevent a faster rise in the annual inflation rate, which stands at 54 percent, with food prices having risen by more than 100 percent in the past year.

The small but important reprieve from economic pressure, however, can reverse itself if negative signs emerge that the nuclear talks have hit a snag.

Statements and leaks by Iranian officials of having gained big concessions from the United States have fueled a sense of certainty that most important issues have been resolved in the talks.

At the same, time the Israeli Walla News reported on Saturday that Biden Administration officials have told Israel’s leaders a new deal “is not imminent” and Washington has not made any new concessions to Tehran.

However, the report said that Israeli officials, who in recent days had called for an end to talks, have not been convinced by US assurances.

“We may be closer to a deal than we were two weeks ago, but there are still uncertainties about a resolution and differences remain with the Iranians,” an unnamed US official told the site. “At any rate, the signing of a nuclear deal is not expected in the immediate timeframe.”

In fact, Iran is waiting for the US to send a response to the European Union regarding Iran’s position passed on to the EU on August 15. Observers were expecting the US response on Friday, but so far it is not clear when Washington will formally send an answer.

In the meantime, a leak from Tehran attributed details of “US concessions” to Iran’s top negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani from a closed-door briefing with local reporters. It is not clear if the leak was meant to influence US politics regarding the nuclear deal or was to assure domestic audiences that Iran won in the negotiations.

The ultra-conservative Kayhan newspaper in Tehran, affiliated with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei published a lead article on Sunday urging Iran’s negotiators not to give in the “America’s bluffs”. The paper claimed that the economic situation is so bad in Europe and the United States that they are the ones who need the nuclear deal.

At the same time, the government official news website IRNA on Sunday cited an International Monetary Fund report, saying that Iran’s available foreign currency reserves have risen from $21 billion in 2021 to $41 billion so far.

In fact, Iran’s economic crisis is far from being resolved, despite more clandestine oil exports starting from late 2020 and higher oil prices since the invasion of Ukraine.

A government official speaking on financial hardship to meet salary and pension increases promised to the population said that Iran’s estimated budget deficit would be 3,250 trillion rials until March 2023. Depending on the exchange rates, this could range from $13 billion to as much as $18 billion, but the important fact is that it constitutes around 30 percent of the budget.

The parliament’s research center estimated in December that the budget deficit for 2022 would be “between 3,000 and 6,000 trillion rials.”