Iranian Pundits Pessimistic About Quick Results In Nuclear Talks

Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council in the White House John Kirby said on Tuesday “Suffice to say there's still gaps, and we're just not there yet. That doesn't mean that we're less committed to a deal. It doesn't mean that we don't still want to see if we can get there; we do. But there's still quite a bit of work for our diplomats to do.”

Kirby added, "We're not going to talk about hypotheticals here with respect to Iran. The president has been clear: You will not allow Iran to achieve a nuclear weapons capability," he continued. "[Biden] believes strongly that the best way to do that is through diplomacy."

Kirby had sounded more optimistic last month, saying that Iran had made some concessions “that allowed us to get to where we are in the process … so that’s a positive step forward,” noting that the sides are “closer now than we were even just a couple of weeks ago.” 

Also on Wednesday, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew sister site Zman Yisrael reported that based on the message that was conveyed to Prime Minister Yair Lapid in his recent conversations with US President Joe Biden, a new nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is off the table. The nuclear agreement “has been scrapped and will not be signed, at least in the foreseeable future.” the report said.

Chief of staff of the armed forces, Gen. Mohammad Bagheri issued a warning on Wednesday to regional countries hosting US troops and bases on social media, reported by the official government news website IRNA. He said that the “terrorist American armed forces” have reduced forces in the Persian Gulf and have relegated the defense of those dependent on it to “Zionist child-killer army” through CENTCOM.

Bagheri went on to say that Tehran has warned regional countries, meaning Persian Gulf Arab states, to cooperate with Iran for enhancing security, and has told them Iran will expand its air and naval presence and intensify military exercises, including drone and missile drills.

The warning came as indication s emerged that talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran might not lead to any results before the US mid-term elections in November and perhaps beyond.

An Israeli media report appearing in Times of Israel on Wednesday said, “A new nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is off the table and will not be signed in the foreseeable future.”

According to the report, Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid received this message from President Joe Biden and other officials in recent days.

If true, this indicates that a shift occurred in the Biden Administrations’ thinking about the 17-month long talks with Iran since it received the latest response from Tehran last week.

The European Union submitted a compromise text to Iran and the US on August 8, and the two sides responded with their suggestions. The contents were not made public, but the US called the last response from Iran “not constructive.”

Optimism in August that the two sides were inching toward an agreement somewhat dissipated when Iran began insisting on shelving a probe by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into its pre-2003 undeclared nuclear activities. Tehran also intensified demands for “guarantees”, seemingly about lifting US sanctions and a commitment by Washington to be held responsible for leaving the agreement in the future.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a Tuesday briefing, "The US and its allies are equally preparing for scenarios with or without mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).”

“The US president will only conclude a deal that he determines is in the national security interests of the US," she noted, adding that the ultimate goal is to make sure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons.

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Yair Lapid said Israel will continue to act in all areas against the revival of the Iran nuclear agreement and the threat posed by the Islamic Republic.

During a visit to Nevatim airbase in southern Israel, which houses the Israeli Air Force’s squadron of F-35 fighter jets, he said it is too soon to know if Israel has succeeded in thwarting the looming nuclear agreement with Iran.

An Al Jazeera TV reporter tweeted Tuesday that a senior E3 official told him, “because of the last Iranian response, there can be no return to the JCPOA before the mid-terms, but there will be no JCPOA to return to after the mid-terms.”

However, a schedule change in Israeli Mossad chief David Barnea’s visit to Washington announced Tuesday is hard to explain. A meeting with Congressional intelligence committees was cancelled while Barnea will only meet Biden administration officials.

In response to a question about the Israel’s efforts to dissuade Washington from reviving the nuclear deal in a news briefing on Tuesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, "The US and its allies are equally preparing for scenarios with or without mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).”

“The US president will only conclude a deal that he determines is in the national security interests of the US," she noted, adding that the ultimate goal is to make sure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons.

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Yair Lapid said Israel will continue to act in all areas against the revival of the Iran nuclear agreement and the threat posed by the Islamic Republic.

During a visit to Nevatim airbase in southern Israel, which houses the Israeli Air Force’s squadron of F-35 fighter jets, he said it is too soon to know if Israel has succeeded in thwarting the looming nuclear agreement with Iran.

US Ambassador to Israel Thomas Nides said Monday that President Biden has assured Lapid that Washington will never tie Israel’s hands to defend itself against Iran. “We understand the aggression of Iran,” he said, adding that “[Biden] was very clear to the prime minister in that belief.”

Robert Menendez, the chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, who was part of a congressional delegation visiting Israel, said on Monday that Biden has pledged to submit any agreement on Iran’s nuclear program to Congress for review.

Mossad chief David Barnea is also in Washington to attend closed-door classified meetings of House and Senate intelligence committees.

In an unsigned article, IRNA told it readers that Iran’s strategy in the nuclear talks, with President Ebrahim Raisi’s team in charge, is not to budge in the face of “media pressures” and “fake deadlines” that try to “to put the ball in Tehran’s court.”

After Iran stopped the nuclear talks for five months in 2021 and resumed it on November 29, Western negotiators began mentioning deadlines to urge Iran not to further delay the negotiations. But Tehran in early December 2021 said it would not accept “artificial deadlines”. In successive rounds of talks, US and European negotiators announced deadlines numerous times but the talks have dragged on for 17 months since they started in April last year.

Critics say that Western inaction after each passing deadline assured Tehran that it can play for time and in the meantime expand its nuclear program, both as a bargaining chip and in case talks failed, to further build on its progress. Iran has accumulated tens of kilos of 60-percent enriched uranium that it can further process for weapons-grade fissile material in a matter of weeks.

In August, as signs emerged that the Vienna talks might be making a breakthrough, Israel intensified its opposition to the draft agreement, arguing that it is a weaker deal than the original 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and began strongly lobbying the Biden Administration against making dangerous concessions to Tehran.

The Israeli statements and diplomatic steps have visibly angered Tehran. The IRNA article lists what Israeli leaders have said in recent days.

IRNA slamming Israeli pressures on the White House, acknowledged that US midterm elections in November make Biden’s job even more difficult.

It also said that given Iran’s reduction of its JCPOA commitments since early 2021 “decision making for the White House has become harder than ever...”

After Biden signaled his determination to return to the JCPOA in the fall of 2020, Iran passed a law December of that year to reduce its commitments and to increase enrichment to 20 percent. In February 2021, it opted for 60-percent enrichment, which it has continued since.

After weeks of Iranian officials and media highlighting Europe’s energy crisis this winter and hints that a nuclear deal can help alleviate the situation, IRNA said the obvious on Tuesday, that Iran does not have the ability to help Europe with natural gas. It then went on to claim that Iran would never use energy as a lever of pressure. To prove its point the website quoted Mohammad Marandi, a senior official in the negotiating team, as saying that Iran has never used oil and gas as a lever for pressure. However, he has also been touting the approaching winter and Europe’s energy crisis, alongside Iran’s hardline media such as the Fars news website.

IRNA also reiterated Iran’s demand that the a probe by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into Iran’s pre-2003 undeclared nuclear activities should be closed before a deal is reached.

The post which was published on Ali Khamenei’s Persian Instagram Monday was an excerpt from a speech in April 1990 in which he discussed the reasons for the decision of the second Shiite Imam, Hassan ibn Ali, for making peace with his enemy, the founder and first caliph of the Umayyad Caliphate, Muawiya after ten years of war.

“Imam Hassan’s act was based on a logical argument which could not be disobeyed,” he had said in his speech and stressed that no one, even the first Imam, Ali ibn Abi Talib, who had not compromised with Muawiya’s father Abu Sufyan, would have chosen to take a different path under the circumstances of the time.

He also argued that Imam Hassan had taken the decision together with his brother, Hussein ibn Ali, the third Imam, who was later killed in a war with Muawiya’s forces in Karbala in 680 AD. Unlike Imam Hassan, the third Imam, is well known in Shiite history for being uncompromising toward the enemy, the Umayyads.

Khamenei also used the phrase “heroic flexibility” in the context of Iran's relations with the outside world in a very high-profile speech in September 2013 to Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commanders.

In his speech he stressed that he was not opposed to “proper political moves in diplomacy”. The phrase came from Iraqi Shia scholar Razi Ale Yasin’s book, Sulh-ul Hassan, which Khamenei translated into Persian under the title “Imam Hasan’s Peace: The most Magnificent Heroic Flexibility in History” in 1969.

Iranian Shiite clerics and officials often use references to the early Islamic history, particularly the life and actions of the prophet and the twelve Imams, as well as the Quran and other religious texts, when they discuss current affairs which requires interpretation of their statements.

“I believe in what was dubbed as ‘heroic flexibility’ many years ago [in the book],” Khamenei told the IRGC, adding that flexibility in certain circumstances could be positive and even required. He also argued that showing flexibility for “technical reasons,” while not forgetting “who the opponent and enemy is” can help a wrestler manoeuvre in his match to win, in the same way that the Imam's decision saved him and his followrs.

The media in Tehran have highlighted the Instagram post without any comments or interpretation on Tuesday, seeing its possible significance in the current political and international climate. But unlike 2013, when they immediately picked up the mention of “heroic flexibility” in the Leader’s speech and interpreted it as a sign of his consent to a nuclear deal, this time they have refrained from commenting.

Khamenei withheld his blessing to make a deal to restore the 2015 agreement between Iran and the world powers from the administration of President Hasan Rouhani, apparently fearing that credit for removal of US sanctions could help Rouhani and his allies to win in the June 2021 presidential elections against their hardliner rivals.

Rouhani has repeatedly claimed his government could have restored the deal if its path had not been blocked by powerful centres of power such as the hardline dominated parliament which passed legislation in December 2020 requiring the expansion of Iran’s nuclear program.